2015 UAAP: Early Impressions

Ateneo (3-1)
After being blown out by FEU in the opening game, the team has quietly put together a 3 game winning streak against the lower performing teams (Adamson 0-3, UE 2-2, NU 1-3).  On one hand the team has shown its depth, playing a deep rotation, but this same depth is also indicative of an uncertain rotation.  Hopefully the team will get its rotation set as they get more games under their belt.  Key developments so far:

• PG:  3 man rotation without a clear starter.  Jerie Pingoy appears to have the edge, with Matt Nieto emerging ahead of Hubert Cani at this point due to Cani's conditioning or lack of it.  Pingoy clearly has more talent than Nieto but has struggled when pressured.  He is, however, the only player capable of creating his own offense when Ravena sits.
• OG/SF:  Clear starters are the veterans Ravena and Pessumal, though Von has not progressed into anything more than a spot up shooter.  When Black and/or Wong come in off the bench to relieve Kiefer, the team struggles without any creator.  They need to keep Pingoy in the game when Ravena sits as despite his pronouncements, Pessumal has shown no progress in becoming more than a spot up shooter.  Black and Wong are also the same at this stage, though Black may be more advanced in creating his own shot.  At time two PGs play together and take up some of the OG minutes.
• PF/C:  These are the most unsettled positions with 7 players seeing significant time at the two positions.  Most of the minutes will go to Ikeh and Gotladera, while Babilonia and Capacio also seem to have regular slots in the rotation.  Arvin Tolentino has received inconsistent playing time, as have Vince Tolentino and Apacible.  At some point a 7 man rotation over 2 positions will be untenable on a regular basis.

UST (3-1)
They suffered their first loss today against NU after starting the season with 3 straight wins.  The team has a solid and flexible rotation up front with Abdul, Ferrer, Vigil, Lao, and Bonleon and solid at the shooting guard with leading scorer Daquioag.  Their biggest problem is at point where they rotate three players none of which is a clear starter.  This will continue to be their weak link as the season progresses as none appears to be capable of taking the reins.

FEU (2-1)
They are emerging as the team to beat, with solid and blowout wins over Ateneo and LaSalle sandwiching a stunning defeat to UST.  Despite their mediocre start, they remain to be the frontrunners due to their solid and deep rotation.  Finishing any place other than first should be considered a disappointment.

UE (2-2)
The team appears to be a legitimate final four contender.  They have a solid big man rotation led by Javier and De Leon who both shoot well from the outside and can force the opposing big man to go out on defense.  Batiller has been scoring well and doing it within the flow of the offense.  If Varilla and the big men can provide enough scoring support, they can surprise a few teams.

UP (2-1)
Impressive as their start has been, I don't see them as serious Final Four contenders.  They do have some pieces in Kone and Manuel but I think the pieces are just enough to make them competitive in games but not enough for a Final Four slot.

DLSU (1-2)
LaSalle has started poorly and there are rumors about internal bickering that is affecting their stability.  That aside, their lineup is not as balanced as it usually is.  They have holes at center and point guard, while remaining solid at the other 3 slots.  Luckily for them, Prince Rivero has stepped up and shown he can play starter's minutes at the 4 spot, allowing them to use incumbent 4 Perkins as an undersized 5 together with Tratter.  Perkins' game appears to have suffered by playing out of position but he remains their best option at the slot so far.  Rivero is solid as a 4, and Teng plays most of the minutes at the 3.  Rookie Caracut and Sargent give them a solid rotation at the 2, and with Teng at the 3 as well.  This though is not enough to make up for a glaring hole at the point where Torres and Go have proved inadequate.  They miss the presence of Montalbo, who would either give them a 3 man rotation or take over the position himself.  They need to have a couple of their bench players step up and cover the holes at the 1 and 5 spots.

NU (1-3)
While they are definitely weaker than last year's team with the graduation of Rosario and Khobuntin, they should still have a solid rotation.  The backcourt should continue to be solid with Alolino, Diputado, Javelona, and Alejandro, while center should be fine with Aroga getting most of the minutes and Neypes filling in for him.  Their problems are with the forward line, where no one has emerged to take over the 4 spot and the players at the 3 spot have not been consistent.

Adamson (0-3)
The projected cellar dwellers have performed up to expectations.  They have some talent, but Ochea will struggle as the go to player, and import Sarr is not an solid scorer.  Consequently they lack offensive punch and will continue to do so for the season.  They have players who step up every now and then but they lack someone to support.  They should be in last place all the way to the end of the season.

2015 UAAP: Ateneo Observations

Ateneo has just completed it's second game, a 24 point win over Adamson to match a 24 point loss to FEU.  While the outcomes of the two games were very different, what they showed about the team has been consistent.

• Ateneo is an offense oriented team.  Consistent with Bo Perasol's coaching style, which is also what he did with Coca Cola/ Powerade in the PBA, his teams are designed around the offense, and more specifically, a perimeter oriented offense.  Defense is something they play while waiting to get the ball again for offense.
• Bigs are there for rebounding and defensive rotations.  They score off drop passes and ball movement caused by penetration of the small players.  Post ups on offense occur occasionally for diversity purposes and results generated from there are a bonus.
• Player rotation is determined by what they want to do on offense.  Defensive balance is sacrificed for offensive balance.  That results in a hesitation to field two regular bigs at the same time, specially post up bigs.  For that reason, Ikeh and Gotladera will back-up each other and will rarely, if ever, play together because neither has an outside shot.  One reason for Gwynne Capacio getting more playing time this year is that he plays as a stretch 4 and also a mobile big man to complement the post bound offense of Ikeh and Gotladera.
• We do not have a defensively gifted front line.  Ikeh is best in a sweeper role as a ring protector, as is Babilonia.  But they have difficulty playing defense on their own man.  Our best post defender is Gotladera who can battle against power playing bigs and can play good position defense.  But he is not much help as the defensive anchor because he is not a threat to block shots.
• Ateneo will compete when their offense is clicking but will risk being blown out when they are cold because the team's defense cannot hold the opponents down. 

As an offensive oriented team, Ateneo has to improve the quality of the offense to an elite level if this will have to offset poor defense.  Our perimeter shooters have to be automatic when left open and ball movement has to be properly placed and efficiently delivered.  Given the quality of defense, this team will need to create an advantage by hitting threes against their opponents twos.

When playing defense, our wings need to be able to exert pressure on the ball and playing perimeter defense.  They must be able to cause turnovers before the opponent can get settled into their post offense.  In the Adamson game, an offensively limited big like Pape Sarr dominated inside on offense in the first half because we couldn't defend him in the post.  In the second half, he was limited because the defense was able to contain he ball on the perimeter and they were not able to set him up for the same post plays he had in the first half.  The guards absolutely cannot afford to be beaten off the dribble when Ikeh is not in the game.  They do not need to steal the ball everytime, but they need to ensure that their man does not beat them off the dribble.

Last year showed that a good offensive team can dominate the eliminations, but it will not be sufficient to win the championship.  If Ateneo's offense continues to improve and find its rhythm, the team can still do well in the eliminations, but they will have to find a defensive identity or find something that it does well on defense to avoid suffering the same end as last year.