UAAP 2014: End Game

Tomorrow the elimination round of the UAAP would have been completed.  We would know who won FEU-Ateneo and DLSU-NU, and on Tuesday, whether UE is still in contention for the Final 4.  The teams actually all have their destiny in their hands since their fates will be decided by whether they win or lose the games they are in.  The teams' official positions may be different and their press releases may say otherwise, but here are my thoughts on where the teams may fall.

FEU:  It's interesting to see if they rebound after a blowout loss to UE or lose confidence and continue to drop.  Of all the contending teams, however, they are the ones I feel are least affected by who they play since they beat both DLSU and NU twice.  So losing to Ateneo should not be a big deal to them.  Winning over Ateneo and facing UE may be a bit bothersome, but the twice to beat advantage should be sufficient to see them through to the finals in any scenario.

ATENEO:  In contrast to FEU, Ateneo may be the team most affected by who they face.  They are in a good position to repeat over FEU since they seem to match up better against DLSU and FEU than NU.  Best scenario for Ateneo would be to win against FEU and secure the top spot.  The twice to beat should be secure for them to make it to the finals.  Should they lose against FEU, they seem to be better off facing arch rivals DLSU than NU in the virtual best of three for second.  Matching up against NU in the same 2-3 scenario would be in NU's favor.

DLSU:  They need to win against NU.  As their last game showed, they are vulnerable to UE, specially with their battered and injured backcourt.  They would want to at least have a chance to defend the crown in the Final Four than finish on the outside looking in.  Whether they finish 3rd of 4th, they are probably better off facing Ateneo than FEU, thereby granting the wish of the UAAP board for a moneymaking matchup.

NU:  In any scenario, win or lose, best case for NU is to match up against Ateneo who they have a chance of beating twice in a row.  Ateneo hasn't solved the NU puzzle while the other Final Four coaches have.  In fact, being on the shorter end of a twice to beat matchup against Ateneo may be more favorable to NU than a best of three against FEU (2 vs 3).

UE:  Of course the darkhorse.  Personally, though, their best outcome may be a 4th place finish.  Even if they make the Final Four, I don't see them winning 2 games against FEU or Ateneo.

Some outcomes to consider...

Most Vulnerable to an Upset/Twice to Beat, Twice Beaten:  Ateneo
Candidate for Biggest Disappointment:  DLSU (dropping out of the Final Four)
Least Likely to Win the Finals (if they make it):  NU
Most Likely to Beat Themselves:  FEU
Jokers...Can Make the F4 but not a title contender:  UE

GILAS 2014: After The Tournament

As we approach the last game of the Gilas team in the 2014 World Championships, we need to continue to look at things with a developmental perspective.  It is actually just the beginning of the journey and not the completion.  There are comments about how Rajko Toroman would have been the better coach, or Norman Black or Tim Cone, etc.  What we should look at instead would be how Toroman started it, what Chot Reyes did to build on it, and what the next coach will add or solve.  Now that the team has made it to the World's stage and performed well, we should not suddenly get impatient and expect a contender the next time around.  That said, here are some ideas on what to do next...

COACHING/STRATEGY:  Let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.  We might be tempted to look at Coach Chot's inability to win at the end game, but we should also be cognizant that he was able to build a team that had a CHANCE to win at the end game.  A quick fix type of change in the hopes of a better endgame finish may sacrifice the team's competitiveness over 40 minutes.  Let's look at what Chot has done to allow us to compete for the first 39.5 minutes, keep what works, and next develop a strategy for the endgame.  Similarly, we may be too focused on building a team that can compete at the World Championship level only to fail to make it out of Asia.

DEVELOP BIGS:  As Junmar Fajardo showed in limited minutes (at least in the first 3 games; I wasn't able to watch the Puerto Rico game), we can also develop big men to be competitive enough to hold their own even in limited minutes.  All the teams at this level have multiple players at 7-feet, 6-11,6-10, 6-9.  We need to have at least 2 local big men (real bigs, not Filipino-sized bigs) to back-up and play alongside Blatche.  This team had 2 local bigs, but Aguilar seemed overmatched at this level and  also out of sync with the team's style of play.

SHOOTERS:  This team featured only two true shooters in Jeff Chan and Jimmy Alapag.  We might have had a better chance with better shooters in place of Paul Lee and Gary David (perhaps Marcio Lassiter and a healthy Larry Fonacier).  Our local bigs might also benefit from developing a good 15-18 foot jumper.

SLASHERS:  Gabe Norwood showed the ability to get to the ring and finish strong.  This was something our point guards could not do because they were too small.  Unfortunately we could not go to him too much because he also wasn't an outside threat and defenses backed off him and played him for the drive.  If Norwood can improve his outside shot to force defenders to stick closer to him, that would open up the drive.  His ability to finish at the ring will force defenders to help out and thus open up the big men for drop passes or the shooters for threes.  Jared Dillinger is the only other wingman with size to finish at the ring (don't know about Chris Lutz here) but he also has the same shortcoming (shooting) as Norwood.

In our dreams, we would have Gabe Norwood developing Alapag's outside shooting and ballhandling/court generalship.  Jason Castro would be as tall as Jared Dillinger and have the same speed and explosiveness.  Greg Slaughter or Junemar Fajardo would have their bulk and Aguilar's athleticism.  Marc Pingris would be a 6-10 version of himself.  And Andray Blatche would be an NBA All Star talent.  While we wait for those players to be born, we need to continue to build on this version of Gilas.  Should there be a change in the coaching, the new coach should build on rather than rebuild the foundation that has been established.  The key to success will be the ability to continuously improve, and this will be achieved by building on something that is working rather than rebuilding everything.