PBA: Greatest Players List

There was recently a lot of brouhaha over the PBA's release of the addendum to their 25 Greatest Players List.  The addendum was composed of an additional 15 players to update the list to become the 40 Greatest PBA Players in time for the 40th PBA Anniversary.

The release of the "next 15" players resulted in a lot of criticism and controversy, from fans and even to ex-players who were not selected.  At the core of the discussion were questions on the selection process and selection criteria and the credibility of the selection panel.  And personally, as a fan of the sport myself who has been able to see most of the players, I do agree that there are questionable choices.

The bulk of the controversy centers on the absence of or gaps in the selection criteria.  For example, since being an ex MVP was part of the guidelines, there have been few issues on the inclusion of the ex-MVPs.  The focus of the controversy has been on the players who were not selected as ex-MVPs.  Olsen Racela fans, for example, question only whether Jayson Castro should have made the list ahead, and not whether Jayjay Helterbrand, who was an ex MVP, should have made it.

Given that being an ex MVP is part of the guidelines, that leaves out the most questionable of the candidates:  Marlou Aquino, Kerby Raymundo, Marc Pingris, Chito Loyzaga, and Jayson Castro.  The most popular names raised against them are Nelson Asaytono, Dennis Espino, Jeffrey Cariaso, Bong Hawkins, Abe King, Dindo Pumaren, Olsen Racela, Danny Seigle, Yoyoy Villamin, and Arnie Tuadles.  Manny Victorino has also been mentioned, being a former member of the elite protected list of players who could not play together on the same team.  Other former members of that list were 25ers Ramon Fernandez and Abet Guidaben, and the unlisted King and Villamin.

The issue here starts because it is driven by numbers, rather than by "greatness".  The PBA needs the number of players to be at 40, regardless of whether there is a delineation of greatness between 40 and 41.  In contrast, take the US Basketball Hall of Fame.  There is no minimum or maximum number who need to qualify.  All are rated against a standard and those that make the standard make it and those that don't do not.  There is no magic number to target. 

Taking away the limitation of numbers, perhaps there are only 35 greats that are justifiable by set standards.  Or maybe it should be more than 40.  Without the basis of any criteria and purely on personal bias, I would rate them as follows:

All Time Great:  Nelson Asaytono, Bong Hawkins, Abe King, Danny Seigle, Yoyoy Villamin, Olsen Racela

Non All Time Great:  Marlou Aquino, Kerby Raymundo, Marc Pingris, Chito Loyzaga, Dennis Espino, Jeff Cariaso, Dindo Pumaren

Jayson Castro I believe will eventually be an All Time Great but has not yet done enough as of now to make it.  As for Victorino, he is no better than Aquino/Raymundo/Espino but if being on the protected list becomes a criteria, then I would have no objection to him making it.

NBA Retrospective: Great Players Who Won Championships in Supporting Roles

There have already been a lot written about NBA greats who couldn't win a championship, and corollary to that, to "winners" who have shown they can win again and again.  It got me thinking about a middle group of players...those who could not win titles by themselves, but were critical members of championship teams as the number 2 guys or as the team's secondary superstar.  I am not familiar with the players before my time, but these are my noteworthy players from the 80s until today.

Scottie Pippen is perhaps the ultimate secondary superstar.  He had the fortune/misfortune of spending the peak years of his career playing with and in the shadows of Michael Jordan.  In the couple of years Jordan was out, he showed that he could not carry a team as "the" main man, as particularly tainted by his refusal to play against the Knicks when he wasn't the one given the last shot.  And while his other opportunities came when his skills had significantly fallen off (Portland, Houston), he also did not display the necessary leadership.  He was someone who was really best off as the secondary superstar.

David Robinson is perhaps the most talented of the secondary superstars.  He was a member of talented teams but did not have the luxury of playing beside a strong secondary.  The best was perhaps Sean Elliott, but who may have been a best fit as a number 3 guy behind Tim Duncan and David Robinson.  It could be said that an in-his-prime Robinson would have been able to hold his own against an in-his-prime Duncan, but at the end of the day, Robinson never won a title as the Spurs main man and he won as a secondary superstar when Duncan came on board.

The LA Lakers James Worthy is perhaps the most unsung of this list.  He played most of his career with the star studded Laker teams led by Magic Johnson.  He won multiple titles with them and even had a year when he was the Championship Series MVP.  He was nearly traded to the Mavericks for Mark Aguirre and Roy Tarpley in 1986, and that might have given him the opportunity to lead "Worthy's Team" and see how far he could take them.  Ultimately though, he is best known as the finisher on the Magic-led Laker breaks.

Jason Kidd also was not able to win a title as the main man (New Jersey) but was able to do so as Dirk's sidekick later in his career.  Had he won a title with the Nets, he would have been their top dog.  By the time he rejoined Dirk, however, it was clear that it was Dirk's team and he was in a supporting role.

Clyde Drexler was another superstar on the downside of a career when he finally won by joining a younger, stronger star in Hakeem Olajuwon.  In his earlier days, he was the star of the deep Portland Trailblazer teams that challenged the Lakers, Pistons, and Bulls in the early 90s.  Despite a very deep team that featured Buck Williams, Clifford Robinson, Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Kevin Duckworth among others, they failed to beat the Pistons in 1990, and the Bulls in 1992.  As an aging star, he was traded to Houston and was a significant contributor to the Rockets 95 playoff run on their way to back to back titles.  Despite his contributions, however, that was clearly Hakeem's team.

While these players could be considered as having had superstar careers, they won championships in a supporting role.  Still, they did win at least one each.  That's one more than the likes of Ewing, Malone, Stockton, etc.

UAAP 2014: The Last Victory

The UAAP season nears its end, with FEU one win away from their first title since 2005.  Meanwhile, their opponent NU needs to win twice in a row in their own quest for their first title since before I was even born.  The last two teams, the last one or two games of the season.

While it may be a surprise that both Ateneo and La Salle failed to make the championship series, neither was unexpected.  NU's best bet to make the championship game was to face Ateneo in the Final Four.  FEU meanwhile had also dominated La Salle this season and it was not unexpected that they would beat the defending champions.  The only "unexpected" development was that both of them would fall, on the same playing day, and in games decided by the last play.  An Aroga block sealed Ateneo's twice to beat, twice beaten ending, while a game ending three gave FEU the second finals slot.

In the first game of the finals, FEU bucked an off-night by Belo and used a decisive third quarter run to take Game 1.  NU needs to bounce back in Game 2 tomorrow or kiss their title hopes goodbye.  With Game 2 coming up tomorrow, my fearless forecast is that FEU wraps it up.

UAAP 2014: End Game

Tomorrow the elimination round of the UAAP would have been completed.  We would know who won FEU-Ateneo and DLSU-NU, and on Tuesday, whether UE is still in contention for the Final 4.  The teams actually all have their destiny in their hands since their fates will be decided by whether they win or lose the games they are in.  The teams' official positions may be different and their press releases may say otherwise, but here are my thoughts on where the teams may fall.

FEU:  It's interesting to see if they rebound after a blowout loss to UE or lose confidence and continue to drop.  Of all the contending teams, however, they are the ones I feel are least affected by who they play since they beat both DLSU and NU twice.  So losing to Ateneo should not be a big deal to them.  Winning over Ateneo and facing UE may be a bit bothersome, but the twice to beat advantage should be sufficient to see them through to the finals in any scenario.

ATENEO:  In contrast to FEU, Ateneo may be the team most affected by who they face.  They are in a good position to repeat over FEU since they seem to match up better against DLSU and FEU than NU.  Best scenario for Ateneo would be to win against FEU and secure the top spot.  The twice to beat should be secure for them to make it to the finals.  Should they lose against FEU, they seem to be better off facing arch rivals DLSU than NU in the virtual best of three for second.  Matching up against NU in the same 2-3 scenario would be in NU's favor.

DLSU:  They need to win against NU.  As their last game showed, they are vulnerable to UE, specially with their battered and injured backcourt.  They would want to at least have a chance to defend the crown in the Final Four than finish on the outside looking in.  Whether they finish 3rd of 4th, they are probably better off facing Ateneo than FEU, thereby granting the wish of the UAAP board for a moneymaking matchup.

NU:  In any scenario, win or lose, best case for NU is to match up against Ateneo who they have a chance of beating twice in a row.  Ateneo hasn't solved the NU puzzle while the other Final Four coaches have.  In fact, being on the shorter end of a twice to beat matchup against Ateneo may be more favorable to NU than a best of three against FEU (2 vs 3).

UE:  Of course the darkhorse.  Personally, though, their best outcome may be a 4th place finish.  Even if they make the Final Four, I don't see them winning 2 games against FEU or Ateneo.

Some outcomes to consider...

Most Vulnerable to an Upset/Twice to Beat, Twice Beaten:  Ateneo
Candidate for Biggest Disappointment:  DLSU (dropping out of the Final Four)
Least Likely to Win the Finals (if they make it):  NU
Most Likely to Beat Themselves:  FEU
Jokers...Can Make the F4 but not a title contender:  UE

GILAS 2014: After The Tournament

As we approach the last game of the Gilas team in the 2014 World Championships, we need to continue to look at things with a developmental perspective.  It is actually just the beginning of the journey and not the completion.  There are comments about how Rajko Toroman would have been the better coach, or Norman Black or Tim Cone, etc.  What we should look at instead would be how Toroman started it, what Chot Reyes did to build on it, and what the next coach will add or solve.  Now that the team has made it to the World's stage and performed well, we should not suddenly get impatient and expect a contender the next time around.  That said, here are some ideas on what to do next...

COACHING/STRATEGY:  Let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.  We might be tempted to look at Coach Chot's inability to win at the end game, but we should also be cognizant that he was able to build a team that had a CHANCE to win at the end game.  A quick fix type of change in the hopes of a better endgame finish may sacrifice the team's competitiveness over 40 minutes.  Let's look at what Chot has done to allow us to compete for the first 39.5 minutes, keep what works, and next develop a strategy for the endgame.  Similarly, we may be too focused on building a team that can compete at the World Championship level only to fail to make it out of Asia.

DEVELOP BIGS:  As Junmar Fajardo showed in limited minutes (at least in the first 3 games; I wasn't able to watch the Puerto Rico game), we can also develop big men to be competitive enough to hold their own even in limited minutes.  All the teams at this level have multiple players at 7-feet, 6-11,6-10, 6-9.  We need to have at least 2 local big men (real bigs, not Filipino-sized bigs) to back-up and play alongside Blatche.  This team had 2 local bigs, but Aguilar seemed overmatched at this level and  also out of sync with the team's style of play.

SHOOTERS:  This team featured only two true shooters in Jeff Chan and Jimmy Alapag.  We might have had a better chance with better shooters in place of Paul Lee and Gary David (perhaps Marcio Lassiter and a healthy Larry Fonacier).  Our local bigs might also benefit from developing a good 15-18 foot jumper.

SLASHERS:  Gabe Norwood showed the ability to get to the ring and finish strong.  This was something our point guards could not do because they were too small.  Unfortunately we could not go to him too much because he also wasn't an outside threat and defenses backed off him and played him for the drive.  If Norwood can improve his outside shot to force defenders to stick closer to him, that would open up the drive.  His ability to finish at the ring will force defenders to help out and thus open up the big men for drop passes or the shooters for threes.  Jared Dillinger is the only other wingman with size to finish at the ring (don't know about Chris Lutz here) but he also has the same shortcoming (shooting) as Norwood.

In our dreams, we would have Gabe Norwood developing Alapag's outside shooting and ballhandling/court generalship.  Jason Castro would be as tall as Jared Dillinger and have the same speed and explosiveness.  Greg Slaughter or Junemar Fajardo would have their bulk and Aguilar's athleticism.  Marc Pingris would be a 6-10 version of himself.  And Andray Blatche would be an NBA All Star talent.  While we wait for those players to be born, we need to continue to build on this version of Gilas.  Should there be a change in the coaching, the new coach should build on rather than rebuild the foundation that has been established.  The key to success will be the ability to continuously improve, and this will be achieved by building on something that is working rather than rebuilding everything.

NBA Retrospective: 1985 Draft

Nineteen Eighty Five (1985) was the year I first got started following NBA basketball.  We were in a bookstore then...Bookmark...and I asked my dad to buy me a book called The Complete Handbook Of Pro Basketball 1986 written by Zander Hollander.  It featured a picture of Patrick Ewing being drafted on the cover, and this started me off on being an NBA fan.  In honor of that event, and also in line with my revisiting the NBA of the 80s and 90s, I thought of reviewing the NBA Drafts from that era, as well as trades and player movements which may (or may not) have changed how things shaped up.

In any case, let me start off with the 1985 Draft, how picks could have changed in hindsight, and possible repercussions of the moves.

Pick	Team	Actual Draftee	Notes
1	New York	Patrick Ewing	Dream Team, 84 Olympic Team
2	Indiana	Wayman Tisdale	84 Olympic Team
3	LA Clippers	Benoit Benjamin
4	Seattle	Xavier McDaniel	All Star
5	Atlanta	Jon Koncak	84 Olympic Team
6	Sacramento	Joe Kleine	84 Olympic Team
7	Golden State	Chris Mullin	Dream Team, 84 Olympic Team
8	Dallas	Detlef Schrempf	All Star
9	Cleveland	Charles Oakley	All Star
10	Phoenix	Ed Pinckney
11	Chicago	Keith Lee
12	Washington	Kenny Green
13	Utah	Karl Malone	Dream Team
14	San Antonio	Alfrederick Hughes
15	Denver	Blair Rasmussen
16	Dallas	Bill Wennington
17	Dallas	Uwe Blab
18	Detroit	Joe Dumars	All Star
19	Houston	Steve Harris
20	Boston	Sam Vincent
21	Philadelphia	Terry Catledge
22	Milwaukee	Jerry Reynolds
23	LA Lakers	AC Green	All Star
24	Portland	Terry Porter	All Star
Other Picks:
31	Washington	Manute Bol
35	San Antonio	Tyrone Corbin
45	Cleveland	John Williams
47	New York	Gerald Wilkins
54	Houston	Sam Mitchell
66	Sacramento	Michael Adams	All Star
69	Chicago	Mike Brown
84	Atlanta	John Battle
87	Detroit	Spud Webb
160	Milwaukee	Mario Elie

DRAFT SUMMARY:
The draft featured 10 All Stars (1-Ewing, 4-McDaniel, 7-Mullin, 8-Schrempf, 9-Oakley, 13-Malone, 18-Dumars, 23-AC Green, 24-Porter, 66-Adams), of which there are 4 likely HOFers (Ewing, Mullin, Malone, Dumars).  This draft also had a number of non first rounders who had productive careers at close to All Star levels such as Williams, Wilkins, and Webb.  They also had a couple of players who had late but productive careers such as Mitchell (first season was 1989-90) and Mario Elie (1990-91).

MICHAEL JORDAN OLYMPIC TEAMS:
This draft also included the bulk of the Jordan-led 1984 Olympic Team frontline in centers Ewing, Koncak, and Kleine and power forward Tisdale (Sam Perkins was drafted in 1984).  Aside from the big men, they also included the 84 squad's top shooter in Mullin.  Ewing and Mullin teamed up again in 1992 as part of another Jordan lead Olympic Team, this time the Dream Team.  They were joined by another 85 draftee in Karl Malone.

BIG MAN BUSTS:
This was still the era of the NBA big man, as evidenced by the teams gambling on drafting big men that ended up as busts.  Start off with 3rd pick Benoit Benjamin who had a productive career statistics wise but was a bust due to lack of intensity and effort throughout has career.  Next came the back to back selections of Jon Koncak (5th) and Joe Kleine.  Given that they were members of the 84 Olympic Team, teams may have had enough reason to draft them that high, but it still needs to be mentioned that 8 future All Stars were drafted after them.  They did have long careers as back-ups.  Later in the first round, Dallas picked another pair of white 7 foot draft busts back to back.  These were Bill Wennington (16) and Uwe Blab.  Wennington at least had a long career, including a couple of seasons as a quality back-up but Blab was a total waste.  Four (4) future All Stars were drafted after them, as well as other potentially more productive big men in shot blocking specialist Manute Bol and solid starter and borderline All Star John Williams who were both taken in the second round.

ALL AROUND BUSTS:
Aside from the 7 footers, which were an understandable fad at that time, there were also some selections that were simply awful decisions.  Cleveland for example initially seemed to have made a great pick at 9th taking Charles Oakley, but then shot themselves in the foot by trading Oakley for 11th pick Keith Lee.  Oakley played 1282 games over 19 seasons, finishing with career averages of 9.7 ppg and 9.5 rpg.  Lee meanwhile played 182 games over 3 seasons averaging 6.1 ppg and 4.7 rpg.

Another notable bust was Kenny Green, who was drafted 12th overall by the Washington Bullets, or one slot ahead of Karl Malone.  Green never even played the equivalent of a full season, appearing in 60 games over 3 years and scoring a total of 265 points.

At the 14th slot, or one after Malone, the San Antonio Spurs picked Alfrederick Hughes, who did play more games than Green at 68, but did so in only one season.  Given that no team would have reasonably expected Michael Adams to be a future All Star at that time, they still passed up three future All Stars drafted in the first round after Hughes in Dumars, AC Green, and Porter.  Several other choices would have yielded part time starters in C Blair Rasmussen or  F Terry Catledge.

WHAT IFS:
The ultimate what-if for this entire draft would have been if any of the teams from 2-12 would have drafted Karl Malone.  A more realistic scenario would have players moving within 5 to 10 slots.  For example, even though Michael Adams ended up as a future All Star, no team would have considered taking him in the first round.

Chicago ends up with Karl Malone instead of Oakley:  Oakley was a productive sidekick to Jordan for his first three years in Chicago, but Malone would have provided the same toughness, similar rebounding, and much better scoring.  Imagine a two-man game featuring Malone and MJ.

Dallas uses 16th or 17th pick on John Williams:  Williams was a potential first round pick who slipped to the second round because his eligibility was in question as a result of the point shaving scandal at Tulane University where he played.  He actually had to sit out the 1985-86 season until being cleared to play the next year.  Selecting Williams, even if he plays only in 1986-87, would have strengthened a Mavericks frontline which featured James Donaldson, Roy Tarpley, and Sam Perkins at the power slots and Mark Aguirre and Detlef Schrempf at the small forward post.  He played 13 seasons, finishing with career averages of 29.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 887 career games.

Houston drafts Terry Porter at 19:  Houston had the Twin Towers at that time and were looking for outside shooting to open up the inside.  They did not expect that John Lucas would fall to drugs once again and leave them without a point guard.  Porter would have fit in well in Houston's defensive scheme, and developed into a good shooter as his career progressed.  The Rockets made the finals that season with no contribution from Harris at the shooting guard spot, but after losing Lucas late in the season, they had to make do with a point guard rotation of Robert Reid and Allen Leavell.  Having had Porter as a back-up point guard might have given the Rockets a better chance against the Celtics in 1986.  Porter played 79 games averaging 15.4 mpg, 7.1 ppg, and 2.5 apg as a rookie back-up guard.  Aside from being much better than Harris' 8.5 mpg and 4.5 ppg in 57 games as a bench warmer, Porter could have helped in the Rockets' point guard crisis not only late in the season but through the next season.

UAAP 2014: Early Second Round Notes

It has just been a week or so into the second round of the UAAP, and quite a lot has happened in so little time...

>  DLSU started with a win over Ateneo to take the top spot, then lost it to FEU and dropped into a triple tie for second with Ateneo and NU
>  FEU beat NU and the by-then top ranked DLSU team to take over the top spot themselves
>  NU repeated its first round performance by losing to FEU and beating Ateneo, joining Ateneo and DLSU in a triple tie for second
>  Ateneo lost to Final Four teams DLSU and NU to fall from first to third before FEU's win over DLSU created the triple tie for second

Meanwhile, the four teams have also taken care of their status in the Final Four by winning their games against the Bottom Four teams.  At this point I don't see UST or UE winning enough games to gain headway into making a serious Final Four run.

Assuming that the Final Four teams take care of their games against the Bottom 4, there are only 2 relevant games remaining...Ateneo vs FEU and DLSU vs NU.  A win by FEU should enable them to finish at solo first with a 12-2 record, while dropping Ateneo to a tie for third at 10-4 together with the loser of the DLSU-NU game.  The winner would then finish at solo second at 11-3.  A win by Ateneo would create a potential triple tie for first at 11-3 together with FEU and the winner of the DLSU-NU game.  Meanwhile, the loser of DLSU-NU will drop to the fourth spot.

Some notes on the teams at this point...

FEU:  Has quietly become the top contender.  They have beaten both DLSU and NU twice and are in a position to split their games against Ateneo.  Their only risk is a repeat of their loss to UST or a similar debacle against any of the Bottom Four.  Taking only the record against the Top 4 though, they are a solid 4-1 pending the game against Ateneo.

DLSU:  Managed to climb all the way to first before losing to FEU.  They are a complete and well balanced team when healthy, but are thin at the point and the backcourt in general.  Key will be the game against NU, which will either solidify them in the top half of the Final Four.  Meanwhile, they are tied with Ateneo and NU at 2-3 in games against each other.

NU:  As expected, they have a good game plan.  And also as expected, they have not shown the ability to make adjustments once this game plan has been solved.  Consequently, they have performed the same in the second round as they did in the first round:  lost to FEU for the second time, and easily beat Ateneo also for the second time.  If this pattern continues, then they should fall to DLSU and drop to 2-4 in games against the top 4, and to fourth place overall.  That would have them face FEU which they have proven unable to beat.  Their season would end with a 4th place finish.

Ateneo:  The wildcard...they can rise all the way to a tie for first with a win over FEU or fall to fourth with a loss.  Unless Coach Bo can find a way to shake things up, they look headed for a free fall from the league's top team to the bottom of the Final Four.  They also seem to be the most vulnerable to an upset by one of the Bottom Four teams.  I think the key for them is the game against FEU.  A win there will allow them to regain the momentum, finish in the top 2 slots, and perhaps ride it all the way to the title.  A loss will take the remaining wind out of their sails and likely drop them to fourth and out of the Finals.

Now if the Bottom Four teams pull off victories against the Top Four, then that would shake things up...

UAAP Basketball 2014: After the First Round (From FB Notes, August 11, 2014)

With the first round of the 2014 UAAP season nearly completed, teams have had the opportunity to perform and either live up to or fail the pre-season expectations.  Of the 6 legitimate teams (i.e. excluding UP and Adamson), a solid Final Four has already emerged, though injuries and upsets in the second round can still shake things up as we go along.  Even the team records have not been a decisive story.  ADMU finished at 6-1, beating DLSU and FEU, but suffered their sole loss to NU, which in turn was beaten by DLSU and FEU.

At this point, there are solid favorites for the Final Four:  ADMU, DLSU, NU, and FEU.  However, these four teams are only 1 game apart from each other with DLSU, NU and FEU all only one game behind ADMU at 5-2, so anything can still happen.

UP & Adamson:  They are in a tight race for last place.  Their main value in the second round is as spoilers against the legitimate teams.  UP coach Rey Madrid promised 3 wins, which if you take 2 against Adamson, means scoring an upset win against one of the top 6.  That would be interesting.

UE:  Perhaps the biggest disappointment from the start of the season.  They could easily have been at 4-2 instead of 2-4 if the last second shots of Sumang had been successful against NU and Ateneo.  Unfortunately for Sumang, they have the 2 Pumarens who are no good at coaching (Derek and Dindo) and don't have the one who can actually do the job (Franz).  The team has talent but the coaching staff does not know how to best utilize big men Charles Mammie and Chris Javier.  That leaves them over dependent on Sumang, the perimeter shooters, and the press which explains why they start most games well and choke in the end.

UST:  This team actually has much less talent than UE and perhaps an even weaker coach.  Karim Abdul has not improved and may actually have regressed from his first two years, while Aljun Mariano and Kevin Ferrer have started off poorly, and none of their point guards is good enough to be a starter let alone a starter on a contender.  The unexpected emergence of recycled Louie Vigil is what allows them to be closer to UE instead of UP and Adamson.

FEU:  Along with DLSU, they have perhaps the only coach who I would consider championship caliber.  They are a dangerous team, with a good balance of star quality performers (Mac Belo and Mike Tolomia), solid rotation players (Anthony Hargrove, Roger Pogoy, Carl Cruz, and Axel Inigo), and productive bench players for specialized needs to provide depth (Jose, Escoto brothers, Tamsi, Dennison).  The Tamaraws don't have as much talent as their recent incarnations but are a better team, if not the best team they have been in the past few years.

NU:  This team is one of the best on paper with the capability to compete against DLSU with a good balance of size in Arroga/Betayene, Rosario, Khobuntin and Neypes and perimeter play through Alolino, Diputado, Javelona, Alejandro, and Atangan.  The key to their success will be coach Altamirano's ability to adjust once their initial game plan has been figured out.  As with previous years, NU may end up leading late into the eliminations only to collapse in the final few games and falter early in the Final Four.

DLSU:  The strongest lineup on paper in the pre-season, the Archers' decision to go with a limited number of players in the lineup is being threatened by injuries.  The team has enough depth up front, with AVO's injury actually a blessing as it has allowed Coach Juno to give extended minutes to rookies Tratter and Rivero and allow them to gain experience for the Final Four.  In fact, they may actually have been too deep early on as they struggled to give enough minutes to AVO, Norbert Torres, Tratter, Andrada, Perkins, Rivero, and Teng.  Their injury problem hits them in the backcourt, as they ended up with all 3 point guards (Thomas Torres, Mustre, and Montalbo) injured in the game against UST.  This forced them to play Vosotros at the point, and affected his shooting, which is perhaps their second biggest problem after warm bodies at the point.  Rookie swingman Sargent is more of a slasher rather than shooter, and this leaves them with Perkins and bench warmer Salem as their best outside shooters.  They should be good enough to retain a Final Four slot even with the injuries, and a complete return of the walking wounded in time for the Final Four should allow them to peak in time for the Final Four.  Should Thomas Torres or Montalbo be injured too badly to return, however, they may not be able to get to the Finals.

ADMU:  They finished as the unexpected leaders after the first round with a 6-1 record, but the team also displayed some very vulnerable weaknesses which can be exploited.  They lead at this point because of Kiefer Ravena.  He has willed the team to the six victories, and in the one game he could not get untracked until the end, they lost.  They will go as far as he will carry them, whether that means through his scoring or by creating plays for his teammates as a decoy.  They will also rely heavily on their shooting, and will need Newsome, Pessumal, and Arvin Tolentino to play well on offense regularly.  If their defense and rebounding can hold enough to allow the offense to explode, they will have a chance.  Unlike previous ADMU teams, however, this team will rely on outshooting the opponent rather than stopping them.  The team's big men will be key.  They will have to be able to hold the fort on defense and give effort off the boards.  They have outdone the Jordan Bulls by going with a four headed center of Gotladera, Babilonia, Porter, and Apacible plus Arvin Tolentino when they play small ball.  Perimeter defense meanwhile is provided by Elorde, Newsome, and the Ravenas.  A pleasant surprise has been Gwynne Capacio's emergence as a versatile defender used both against the perimeter scorers as well as the post.  They have gotten this far because of Kiefer and should make it to the Final Four, but they will need a team effort to win the title.

UAAP Basketball 2014 (From FB Notes, July 29, 2014)

The current UAAP season has been going on for a couple of weeks.  Based on what I've seen, these are how I see the teams performing.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS:  DLSU
They are the defending champions, and were the pre-season pick as the top contender.  Despite a slow 0-2 start including a loss to Ateneo and a probable season ending injury to starting PG Thomas Torres, they still have the strongest lineup.  Coach Juno Sauler's decision to field only a 13 man lineup may be questioned with Torres' injury but the players he cut wouldn't necessarily have solved the PG problem as neither Luigi Dela Paz or Gab Reyes have the ability to fill in extended minutes at the point.
KEY STRENGTH
Frontcourt Depth:  They have the deepest rotation at the 4 & 5 spots, with AVO, Jason Perkins, Norbert Torres, and even comebacking Yutien Andrada capable of starting for almost any other team.  As bench players, Norbert and Andrada stand out against their counterparts.  Jeron Teng, meanwhile, is solid as their small forward, and can play spot minutes at both power forward and as Coach Juno has experimented with, shooting guard.  He has also tried going big with Perkins at small forward.  Rookies Sargent and Tratter as well as Prince Rivero show good potential in the spot minutes they have received so far.
VULNERABILITIES
Point Guard Depth:  This of course is an in-season development due to the injury of Thomas Torres.  Their last game against UE exposed their shaky backcourt as Kib Montalbo could not handle the pressure.  Using Almond Vosotros as a back-up point guard nullifies his game as a shooter and forces him to play a position he is not as effective at as compared to his shooting guard role.
Lack of Outside Shooting:  Other than Vosotros, they have no other reliable shooter.  Jason Perkins may actually be their second best outside shooter.

OTHER CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS:
FEU:  They have a solid team which can go as far as 3 deep in some positions.  Not as much star quality as DLSU and UE but perhaps better depth overall.  They just need to prove they can win and won't underachieve as they have consistently done in past seasons.  FEU always has a talent level that is greater than their performance.

UE:  Quietly built a contender by adding key pieces.  This year's team is the strongest in recent years with Mustafa Arafat and Charles Mammie giving them 40 minutes of quality import play at the center spot, with a local crew led by Roi Sumang, Dan Alberto, and Chris Javier as the primary scorers and relative unknowns such as Galanza, Jumao-as, Varilla among others providing depth at the wing positions.  New coach Derek Pumaren's teams have always performed at a level below the sum of the parts, which is also what you can say about his brother and assistant coach Dindo's track record.  Will the coaching staff elevate the team to a title or prove to be the hindrance to winning one.

NU:  Still a solid lineup and perhaps a better team now without Ray Ray Parks, they still have a solid core with Arroga/Betayene, Troy Rosario, Gelo Alolino, Glen Khobuntin, and JJ Alejandro.  Coach Eric Altamirano always starts off with a good gameplan, but does not have the ability to adjust as opponents figure out his plan.  Consequently, teams figure them out and find ways to beat them as the season progresses.  This is what happened last year, when he was not able to adjust his gameplan after opponents figured out his.  More than anyone on this team, the pressure is on the coach to show he has what it takes to coach the team to a title.

DARK HORSE
ATENEO:  Their impressive 3-0 start has to be tempered by the fact that 2 of those wins came against non-competitive teams Adamson and UP.  Their real record is a mere 1-1.  This year's team is designed to live and die with Kiefer Ravena, who is the only player on the team who can create his own shot, or create shots for his teammates, with the possible exception of rookie Arvin Tolentino.  The team's offense struggles significantly when in a halfcourt set-up and against a zone defense because of the team's inability to create on offense.  Pessumal and Elorde can shoot when open, but someone needs to create the opening.  Their other big men (Gotladera, Babilonia, Porter, Apacible) are defenders and any offense is a bonus.  Chris Newsome, while effective in the running game, struggles when the team needs to play a halfcourt offense.  For them to be a serious contender, they need to find ways to create on offense even when Kiefer is not having a good shooting game.  Or, for Kiefer to just always have a good shooting game.

OTHERS
UST:  Basically the first five and nothing more.  Unless their bench develops in a hurry, they will be nothing more than spoilers after back to back runner-up finishes.
ADAMSON & UP:  Just pretending to be UAAP teams this year.

RIP Miami Heat 2010-2014 (From FB Notes Page, June 17, 2014)

The Big 3-era Miami Heat are dead.  Or they should be.  Their undressing by the Spurs showed that they need a change.  And it may have to be a major one.

I don't mean to take anything away from the team the past four years and how it was put together.  Four years, 4 Finals appearances, 2 Championships.  Not much to argue with there.  Of course there are those who would say it should have been 4 for 4, but that's nitpicking.  Outside of Jordan's 6 titles in 8 years in the 90s, this is as good as you can get over a four year period.  You can argue all you want about why it was wrong for the 3 to agree to team together but the results speak for themselves.

Given that, what is wrong with them now?  Contract maturity.  In 2010, the Big 3 were paid roughly USD 14M each and you could make the case that they were all worth that or even more.  This year they averaged USD 19M each and it would be fair to say that only Lebron was worth that much.  All the more next year, when their average goes up to more than USD 20M each.  Again only Lebron is worth that much of the 3.  Wade is a fading star who is on his last legs, and Bosh was never that good to begin with.

Miami To-Do List:  In summary, it is retain Lebron.  Lebron should man-up and have the Heat build a team around him and not run to the strongest supporting cast.

1.  Retain Lebron.  For all the issues with Lebron, he is the best player in the game for his generation.  Others may argue he doesn't deserve to be ranked among the greatest of all time, but he is definitely the best of his era.  Kevin Durant, at this point, has been nothing more than an improved Dominique Wilkins, a devastating scorer who doesn't play enough defense to carry a team to a championship.  Even if Lebron opts out of his current deal, he is the only one of the Big 3 who deserves to be signed to a bigger contract than they currently have.

For Lebron, the way to establishing your legacy and to attain legitimacy as a star is to man-up and let the Heat build another contender around you.  You already screwed the Cavs in 2010, and returning to them in 2014 won't make you less of an asshole than you were then.  Just accept that you were an asshole then with "The Decision" crap, grow up, admit it was a mistake done out of immaturity, and show everyone that you have grown to be a better person now than you were then.  To return to Cleveland shows you haven't changed or grown up, you reopen old wounds, and nobody forgives you anyway.  Meanwhile, to move to another team doesn't accomplish anything positive for you except perhaps confirm that you are not someone to build around.

2.  Let Bosh and Wade leave.  Or if they want to do a Spurs, let these two opt out of their current deals and sign for less.  At this point in his career, where he is basically Ray Allen without the jumpshot, Wade doesn't deserve more than 10M.  And he only deserves that for legacy's sake in Miami.  He was the real star of the Heat before the Big 3, and the one who deserves to stay on because of personal legacy with the team.  If Bosh is willing to opt out and re-sign for less (maximum of 15M) then they would have something to build on.  If not, there are better uses of 15M than to sign Bosh.

3.  Get rid of the scraps.  Haslem (4M), Chalmers (4M), Battier (3.3M), and Allen (3.3M) are either retiring or overpaid.  They can be kept on the roster as role players but at nothing more than 1.5M as spot players/deep reserves.

4.  Assuming they keep Lebron at 22M, Wade at 10M, and Bosh at 15M, they keep the Big 3 while at the same time freeing up about 13-15M.  Add to that another 14M from the reserves, and the Heat would have roughly 27M.  This can be used to sign free agents or acquire player salaries through trades.

5.  Use the budget wisely.  Forget about the Big 4.  They aren't even the Big 3 anymore.  They are really Lebron and his supporting cast.  A move that addresses two needs would be to get Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin from Houston.  These guys both earned about 8M this year, so would be about 10M next year.  This improves your center slot and interior as well as overall defense, and Lin would be an upgrade over Chalmers.  You might even be able to throw away Chalmers in the deal.  Houston, meanwhile, is looking for cap space so may give away these two for almost nothing.

Free agent big men options would be Washington's Marcin Gortat or Memphis' Zach Randolph, both unrestricted free agents who may be had for 10-15M.  Unrestricted free agent options at point guard would be Toronto's Kyle Lowry and Brooklyn's Shaun Livingston.

Aside from completing the starting lineup, there may be enough left over for a sixth man, who would ideally be a shooter at the wing positions.  Candidates for this would be unrestricted free agents Jodie Meeks of LA or Trevor Ariza of the Wizards.

The key to the Heat's success next year and in succeeding years still rests on the Big 3.  But unlike in 2010 where this was based on the promise of what they could do on the court, it is now more about what they can or will do off the court (i.e. take pay cuts for Wade and Bosh or sign elsewhere).  If they can do that, and at the same time keep Lebron, there should be no shortage of free agents willing to try their luck with the Heat.

Whether their egos will allow it is another matter.  Good luck Miami and RIP Big 3.

San Mig Coffee: A Real Team (Reposted from FB Notes, May 16, 2014)

A few hours ago, San Mig Coffee beat Talk N Text for their 3rd straight championship in the PBA.  I have to say that I did not expect them to win the championship this conference (at least until they won Game 1 of the Finals) and have not really thought much of them even if they had won the past 2 conferences.  Their success is, to me, an indicator of (1) Coach Tim Cone's ability to lead and coach a team, and (2) their being a perfect example of a team being more than just the sum of the parts.

The reason I say this is that there is nothing on the team that would scare me as an opponent:

>  James Yap is over the hill as a main man.  He has his moments, but can no longer carry a team as their main scorer.  He and Joe Devance are nowhere near their ex-PBA MVP levels.

>  Mark Pingris may actually be their most valuable player, but his value is mostly on defense and on the boards, not as someone who carries a team to the title.

>  PJ Simon, who at best is a borderline all star, may actually be their best offensive player.

>  Mark Barroca and Justin Melton, while showing flashes of ability, are far from consistent and have not yet reached the point of performing at a high level every game.

>  Outside of Pingris and perhaps Devance, their big men are a bunch of recycled or untested nobodies: Ian Sangalang just doesn't scare anyone, Rafi Reavis is on his last legs, Yancy De Ocampo's game makes you wonder how he became a #1 draft pick, Jerwin Gaco has never been anything more than a roster filler.

And yet they have won 3 straight championships despite not being more than a darkhorse candidate at the start of all three conferences.

That's because they perform as a team, and in doing so, deliver more than just the sum of the parts.
And they can only do that if they are well coached.

Congrats to San Mig Coffee on their win, and for showing that a true team can still win a title over a more talented opponent.

Random Thoughts...2014 NBA Playoffs (Reposted from FB Notes Page Entry May 12, 2014)

As someone rooting for anyone except the Heat for this year's championship, I do have to admit that they are looking like this year's strongest candidate to win.  The first round has taken out some teams who could have given the Heat trouble, and as the playoffs move forward, things seem to be moving in the direction of the Heat's best interests.  In any case, here are my thoughts on the remaining teams in the field and the prospects of their moving forward.

EAST:  PACERS vs WIZARDS
Sorry Wizards fans, this is a done deal with the Pacers up 3-1 as of today.  The Wizards had a good chance, coming in on a high after upsetting the Bulls and the Pacers still playing like they did as the season wound down (as compared to when the season started).  They blew their chance, however, and with the Pacers apparently gaining stability and slowly moving past the internal team crisis that lead to a collapse at the end of the season and a near collapse in the first round agains the Hawks.  The Pacers should easily win this series now and take one of the two slots in the Eastern Finals.

EAST:  HEAT vs NETS
The Nets were touted as the best team with a chance to beat the Heat in the East having gone 4-0 agains the back to back champions during the regular season.  They disappointed in the first two games of the series, but seemed to have regained their bearings in Game 3.  I predicted a Nets win on the assumption that they would win 1 of the first 2 games in Miami, but for them to now have to win 4 of 5 is highly doubtful.  At the current pace, Heat should win in 5 if they win Game 4, or finish it in 7 if they lose.  I just don't see Brooklyn having enough to beat the Heat.

EASTERN FINALS:  PACERS vs HEAT
The Heat Hater in me is hoping the Pacers have regained their early season form and will start to hum and dominate from this point forward.  That means putting away the Heat.  But I think their late season struggles are more indicative of how delicate the team's balance is and, even with the homecourt advantage, I just don't see them being stable enough to put away the Heat.  Hopefully though they will provide enough of a challenge to challenge and tire out Miami before the Finals.  Heat should win in 6 and get back to the Finals, where hopefully is where they will fall.

WEST:  SPURS vs BLAZERS
Too late to read.  Spurs finish off Blazers in 4 or 5.  Portland is an up and coming team but doesn't yet have what it takes to beat a smart team.  Hopefully though the Blazers are building a smart team and not a re-make of the star-studded but dumb Blazers teams of the 90s.

WEST:  THUNDER vs CLIPPERS
Thunder basketball is all about offense and outscoring (as compared to stopping) the opposition.  Even their defense is played as a part of the offensive strategy (defend/get the steal so the team can run and score).  In that perspective, the Clippers are a good matchup for them.  Unfortunately though, the Clippers may be too good a matchup for them, since the Clippers can keep up with the scoring (though not as explosive) and actually play better defense than OKC.  The Clippers just may be able to pull it off in 6 (though Thunder win a game 7).

WEST FINALS:  SPURS vs CLIPPERS
I have to admit that this is a biased prediction on a number of counts.  First is I think the Spurs have the best chance of beating the Heat, with the Clippers having a better chance than OKC.  The Thunder will not win a championship until they start to include defense as a necessary part of their game, rather than being the thing they do while waiting to get back on offense.  That said, the Spurs have too much smarts for both the Thunder and the Clippers.  Key though is for them to preserve enough strength for what can be expected to be a war of attrition with the Heat.

NBA FINALS:  SPURS vs HEAT
This is now purely biased...I want the Spurs to win, or some other permutation of having the Heat lose.  I do feel that the Spurs, as displayed last year, have the best chance of beating the Heat due to their experience and smarts.  OKC may have more talent, but you will not beat the Heat by just attacking them on offense.  You need to stop the Heat on defense to be able to beat them, and I think that the Spurs are in the best position to challenge them that way.
Now let's see how it all unfolds