2012 UAAP: Game 1 Postscript

The 2012 regular season basically went as expected.  Ateneo finished the regular season in first place which didn't surprise anyone.  They were challenged a bit more and were far from dominant but they were still clearly the team to beat.  UST finished a solid second.  While this may have been a surprise compared to the pre-season predictions (DLSU, FEU, NU were more popular choices as Ateneo's hurdle to the Drive for Five), they have played consistently this season.  They handed Ateneo their first defeat in only the second game of the season, and basically played at a high level throughout the season.  The finals match up is very much appropriate, as UST is the only team this year that actually has a chance to beat Ateneo for the title.  Other teams can steal a win in the series, but UST has the ability to actually win 2 out of 3 games and consequently the series.

Game 1 of the finals measured up to expectations.  It was a close game, Ateneo winning by 5 at 83-78.  UST had its moments, including owning the first half and having their rally from 9 points down to take a one point lead midway in the 4th period.  Ateneo meanwhile had that 17-0 run to open the second half, and then their finishing kick at the end to put away the game. 

Key take aways for Ateneo:

• This season has made good use of Ateneo's depth in terms of having multiple players to count on.  Early in the season, Slaughter carried them.  Late in the regular season and in the semis, Buenafe and Ravena have stepped up when opponents learned to defend the big man.  And in the finals, Salva, who has been relatively quiet throughout the season, explodes to carry them in Game 1.
• The same depth that they displayed is also what they will miss the most next year, when they will only have Ravena and Buenafe to rely on for big numbers.
• Ravena and Buenafe stepping up and getting ready to take on the cudgels next year.  Ravena has taken over and carried the team in a couple of games.  Buenafe meanwhile has had more big games this year than any other year except perhaps his rookie year.
• Buenafe has proven that he is about the moment rather than statistics.  He has hit big three pointers at key moments of a number of games despite still remaining to be a marginal shooter percentage wise.  Nobody has been better at hitting the three at the crucial moments of the game. 
• Buenafe has also emerged as an underrated defensive player.  Same with his three point shooting, he has come up with key blocks and steals at crucial moments of the game.  He has also done this against key offensive players of the opposing teams.
• Another unsung hero for Ateneo in Game 1 was Juami Tiongson.  He triggered Ateneo's 17-0 run with a three early in the third, and then scored crucial baskets to keep UST at bay in the 4th.

For UST:

• Jarencio has proven to be one of the best coaches in the UAAP.  He can maximize what he has and get the most out of them.  I would have to say that he has played Ateneo evenly throughout the season even though Ateneo has the stronger lineup.
• Mariano is the x-factor for UST, just like Salva has been in the championship series this year and last year.  Mariano is one of their best offensive weapons and happens to play a style that Ateneo has difficulty defending. 
• Teng and Mariano will need to be the primary scorers and come up with big numbers.  Key to victory will be whether Fortuna and Ferrer can come up big to support them.  Abdul, while capable of big numbers, should not be expected to score so that whatever he comes up with would be a bonus.  His value on defense and on the boards is more critical than his offense.
• Unless the call came after time ran out, the refs should have allowed Teng to shoot the free throws.  Given that the lead was already an insurmountable 5 points, they should have just given the free throws to avoid any controversy.

2012 Offseason: 92 Dream Team vs Team USA 2012

Thanks to Kobe Bryant, Charles Barkley, and now Michael Jordan, there has been a lot of debate about how the two US Olympic Teams would perform against each other.  Call me a fan of the classics but I really do think things aren't even close.  While Team USA 2012 may have more star power at the top of the line-up, the overall depth and the impact of players 1 through 12 give me much more confidence in the original dream team. 

First, let's compare them position by position, taking into consideration the abilities of the players at the time of the respective Olympics.  With this consideration for example, I would have Scottie Pippen as the top small forward on the team since this was already during the time Larry Bird had a bad back and was not the Bird of legend.  Similarly, for the 2012 team, we are now looking at a 30+ Kobe Bryant, who is clearly no longer as critical a player as Lebron James and Kevin Durant.  Given these considerations, my view would be as follows:

C:  Patrick Ewing vs Tyson Chandler  -->  Advantage Dream Team
F:  Karl Malone vs Lebron James  -->  Advantage USA 2012
F:  Scottie Pippen vs Kevin Durant  -->  Advantage USA 2012
G:  Michael Jordan vs Kobe Bryant -->  Advantage Dream Team
G:  Magic Johnson vs Chris Paul -->  Advantage Dream Team
C:  David Robinson vs Kevin Love  -->  Advantage Dream Team
F:  Charles Barkley vs Carmelo Anthony  -->  Advantage Dream Team
F:  Chris Mullin vs Andre Iguodala  -->  Advantage Dream Team
G:  Clyde Drexler vs Russell Westbrook  -->  Advantage Dream Team
G:  John Stockton vs Deron Williams -->  Advantage USA 2012
R:  Larry Bird vs James Harden -->  Advantage Dream Team
R:  Christian Laettner vs Anthony Davis -->  Even

Based on the above matchups, the original Dream Team wins 8, Team USA 2012 wins 3, and the amateurs even out since both were insignificant anyway to both teams.  This does not take into consideration the degree of the matchup, where Ewing and Robinson for example have a dominant advantage over Chandler and Love, while James and Durant have sligth advantages over Malone and Pippen.

I recall there was a 1992 team member who said that only 3 players from the 2012 team would make it on the 1992 team.  That's actually a good estimate.  My own view would be that James, Durant, and Kobe make it over Laettner, Drexler, and Bird, given his already being oft-injured by that time.  You can also make an argument for Chris Paul or Deron Williams getting the nod over Stockton.  Still, that leaves a solid 8 slots on the team belonging to members of the Dream Team.

As shown in the gold medal game against Spain and in the game against Lithuania, Team USA 2012 is vulnerable to a strong inside game.  They offset this with athleticism.  Teams that attempted to compete with them on even terms such as Argentina were blown out, but teams that pounded the ball inside had more success.  The Dream Team actually has superior size and a stronger inside game than Spain (Robinson, Ewing, Malone, Barkley would dominate Pau & Marc Gasol, Ibaka, Reyes), while also having what Spain did not...athleticism on the wings with Jordan and Pippen being able to defend the likes of Lebron, Durant, and Kobe.  While the Dream Team does not have as much perimeter depth as the 2012 team, the presence of athletic bigs, particularly on defense, would allow them to compensate for that.  While the 2012 team has more athleticism on the roster from top to bottom, the Dream Team had a better balance of athleticism and size, anchored by an athletic Robinson.  Imagine Lebron or Kobe having to get by Jordan/Pippen on the outside and then to be met at the ring by Robinson.

All in all the advantage of the Dream Team is because of its depth.  When it came to must win games, Team USA 2012 had a much shorter rotation -  James, Durant, Bryant, Paul, Anthony, Williams, Chandler/Love.  The others could not be counted on to play extended minutes (Westbrook, Davis, Harden, Iguodala).  Even against an opponent like Spain, I can imagine most of the Dream Team players would still be able to play significant minutes, with the exception perhaps being Laettner, who really did not have anything more than ceremonial value on the team.

A last point to make would be that I feel there are more players on the Dream Team who would be preferred over the players on the 2012 Team USA than vice versa.  From the perspective of the Dream Team, I can imagine strengthening the team by taking James over an injured and aging Bird, Durant over Drexler, and Chris Paul in place of Laettner to give the team a quick attacking point guard to complement Magic's size and Stockton's pass first approach.  From a purely talent standpoint, it would be Kobe instead of Paul and play Pippen as the 3rd point guard.

Conversely, there are more Dream Team players who would fill in needs on the 2012 team.  First to go would be the big men, with a clear upgrade offensively and defensively by taking Robinson, Ewing, and Malone in place of Chandler, Love, and Davis.  Jordan and Pippen would be an upgrade in overall talent over Harden and Iguodala while matching the level of athleticism.  With Pippen and Jordan capable of taking over as the 3rd point guard, I would also take Barkley or Mullin over Westbrook.  Barkley will improve the team's inside game, while Mullin could be chosen if the desire was to improve outside shooting.  I personally would rather take Barkley and Mullin over Anthony.  As a power forward, Barkley is the better rebounder and defender, while on the wings, Mullin a better shooter.

All in all, I feel that the 1992 Dream Team is the better team as evidenced by the fact that they have more players who can strengthen the 2012 Team USA as compared to 2012 Team USA players who can strengthen the Dream Team.

2011-12 NBA: Lebron Finally Wins One

I don't try to hide the fact that I don't like Lebron James and consequently I don't like the Miami Heat.  I am definitely disappointed that they finally managed to win a title this year.  I have to admit, however, that this sentiment is only because I don't like them, because admittedly, they did show they were the best team in the league this year.  Congratulations to the Heat and to Lebron.

Miami:  First of all, let me clarify that I don't like Lebron because of "The Decision" and other stupid personal/off the court moves that he has done.  There is a difference between me not wanting him to win a title, and not thinking that he is capable of winning.  I plain and simply do not want him to win, and now that he has won, do not want him to win anymore.  I will always be rooting against him, but at the same time I do recognize his greatness both as an individual player and his contribution to a team.  That said, Miami won their championship this year because Lebron finally did what he was expected to do...man-up, take charge, and bully his way to a championship.  Job well done.

Oklahoma:  It was a good year for the Thunder and shows that they are in a great position to be a contender for years to come.  Last year it was Russell Westbrook who screwed up during the playoffs and then bounced back and grew up this season.  In the finals it was James Harden's turn to screw up.  Hopefully he bounces back from this also the way Westbrook did.  If they can keep the team together, they will be in a position to challenge for the title for years to come.  The key is whether they will be able to keep all the pieces together as the players mature and contracts and money get in the way.

San Antonio:  As the playoffs showed, the Spurs are indeed too old.  They have enough talent to do well during the season but need a dominant, athletic young star to be a legitimate challenger.  They have built up a good supporting cast, and with the addition of that one young athletic star would bring them back in the hunt for a title.

Boston:  The Celtics showed in the playoffs that they weren't dead yet and were perhaps one or two pieces away from being a real title contender (even if they had beaten the Heat, I don't see them beating OKC).  However, by shooing away Ray Allen, they have forced the start of at least a partial rebuilding process.  Unless they can get a defensive minded big man to share the burden with Kevin Garnett, however, they will not have much of a chance.