2011 NBA: Conference Finals Recap

MIAMI-CHICAGO
While I have to admit I am rooting for any and all teams except Miami to win the title (which just leaves Dallas as of this point), I have to admit that they did a masterful job against the Chicago Bulls in the conference finals.  A lot of credit has gone to the Big 2 of Lebron and Wade, and even to their supporting cast members Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem, but more credit perhaps should be due to unsung coach Eric Spoelstra, particularly for the decision to have Lebron guard Derrick Rose.

On the surface, it seems to be an easy call to make:  have your best defender take on the opposing team's best offensive player to limit his effectiveness.  But what may be overlooked is that Spoelstra was able to find perhaps the biggest flaw in the Chicago offense.  Despite all their contributors, Chicago only has one player who creates plays, and that is Rose.  Secondary scorers Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer need to be set-up to score, as do the rest of the lesser players.  By assigning James to take on Rose, Spoelstra effectively choked the offense of the Bulls as there was no one else capable of creating the play.  As I was watching Game 4, I was initially surprised that the Bulls kept going to Rose despite James taking him on.  In my mind, with Miami's best defender on Rose, that means the rest of the defense is weaker and Chicago should have attacked the other match-ups featuring the weaker defenders.  But as the game and series went on, I realized that the Bulls had to go to Rose because there was no one else capable of creating.  Most successful teams have at least two players capable of making the play.  Even Michael Jordan could afford to play decoy because Scottie Pippen could set up the offense without his involvement.  And while Bibby is the official point guard, Miami has two creators in Lebron and D-Wade.  This version of the Bulls though didn't have that secondary playmaker.  Much as I hate the Heat, my objective side finds this coaching move to be a key in clinching the series.

And while not every team has someone who can stop Derrick Rose, the Bulls need to consider acquiring another playmaker who can allow Rose to play decoy and take away the best defender from the defense.  It may mean acquiring a shooting guard who can make his own play or develop Luol Deng into such a role, though that will take a lot of work.  But the Heat may have exposed a Chicago weakness that may make the team vulnerable unless it is addressed.

DALLAS-OKC
I have been a Dallas doubter for years, though now they represent my only hope in denying Lebron and the Heat a title.  The reason for my doubt is that they have always had talented teams, but are not able to pull things off when it matters.  More than the other team finding a way to win, its more of Dallas finding ways to lose.  And while they have done well this year, the last time they made the finals they also found a way to lose, and that was after taking a 2-0 lead against a different Miami Heat team.  So bear with me for having my doubts and reservations about their ability to win.

As for the conference finals, however, Dallas did play well and made sure that they did what they had to for the win.  They exposed Russell Westbrook as someone whose stats were better than his actual ability to help a team win and, for many fans, cast doubt on whether Westbrook can lead a team to a championship.  They also showed that the Thunder need to get an inside scorer to complement Durant's perimeter game. 

In summary, Dallas did what it had to do in order to win the series, and allowed the Thunder to self destruct because of their egoes.  Hopefully they have one more series win in them.  While I am not really a fan of Dirk or Kidd (I wouldn't mind if they retire without winning a title), I do prefer them to letting Lebron win a ring. 

NBA History: What-Ifs

One of the most unpredictable aspects of professional basketball has been the rookie draft.  It has been unpredictable because of a number of factors, such as:

1.  Team Positioning in the draft.  While stronger teams ideally finish low and weak teams finish first, a team's success or failure in a particular season can swing wildly.  Look at the San Antonio Spurs who were able to get Tim Duncan when their playoff caliber team had to go without franchise player David Robinson due to injuries.  Without Robinson, the team fell into the lottery, got the first pick and drafted Duncan, returned the next year with Duncan AND Robinson, and won the title two seasons later.

2.  Assessment of Potential.  Despite all the additional work going into player scouting and drafting, there is still no certainty in determining which amateur player will become a better professional.  Take a look at the 2009 draft.  Hasheem Thabeet was drafted second, but it looks like he will take a long time to become a productive player and perhaps should already be considered a bust.  He cannot even break into the rotation.  Conversely, you have a second round pick, Marcus Thornton, who was a double figure scorer as a rookie for New Orleans and was a 20 point scorer for Sacramento after a mid-season trade.

3.  Future draft picks can go higher or lower.  Draft picks are traded based on where a team expects they will fall, but this does not always hold true.  Take the case of the Seattle Supersonics in 1985.  They traded their 1986 first round pick to Boston for starting guard Gerald Henderson.  They probably expected Henderson's acquisition to make them a playoff team, and projected the pick to be somewhere in the middle of the first round.  Unfortunately, their team continued to lose even with Henderson's acquisition and the draft pick eventually ended up as the second overall pick the following year.  This allowed Boston to draft Len Bias, who could have extended the Celtic dynasty by another 10 years had he not died of a drug overdose.  Seattle later turned this around in their favor trading Henderson and what turned out to be a late first round pick to New York for a pick that ended up 5th overall and became Scottie Pippen.  Henderson, a third round pick and 64th overall, ended up being traded for what became the 2nd pick (Bias) and a 5th pick (Pippen).

Given the uncertainty of drafting, I took a look at some trades and how they eventually turned out after the draft picks turned into players:

October 2005:  New York trades 2006 #1, 2007 #1, 2007 #2, 2009#2 with Jermaine Jackson, Michael Sweetney, and Tim Thomas to Chicago for Eddy Curry, Antonio Davis, and a 2007 #1.
On the surface, this looked like a lopsided trade in New York's favor as they were receiving two starters in Curry (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Davis (7.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) as well as a first round pick.  Curry was then considered to be on-the-rise, and played 3 productive seasons as New York's starting center before injuries plus a large contract turned him into a white elephant.  Antonio Davis was still a productive veteran the following season before going into retirement.
Chicago, on the other hand, were giving up its two main big men for journeyman starter Tim Thomas (12.0 ppg) and young reserve forward Michael Sweetney (8.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  Thomas played one unproductive year for Chicago before being waived, while Sweetney had one productive year before dropping to benchwarmer status the next.
While this trade appeared to be a big "win" for New York in the years immediately following the trade, in hindsight, they were probably better off having kept the first rounders who turned out to be Joakim Noah (2006) and LaMarcus Aldridge (2007).  Their own draft pick turned out to be pretty good in Wilson Chandler, but they in effect gave up two for one.  I am sure Noah or Aldridge could easily have been packaged for Melo in place of Chandler.  Presuming it was Aldridge, that would have given them Noah as a starting center alongside Amare and Melo up front.  Perhaps the conference finals would have featured Noah and the Knicks instead against the Miami Heat.

August 1997:  Vancouver traded a 2003#1 pick to Detroit for Otis Thorpe
Otis Thorpe was a 34 year old power forward coming off a 13.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg season with the Detroit Pistons.  After the trade he played half a year with Vancouver averaging 11.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg before being traded to Sacramento for reserves Michael Smith and Bobby Hurley.  Thorpe played one more season as a starter and two as a reserve before retiring.  In exchange for a player with 4 years left in his career, they gave up a draft choice that ended up second overall in 2003.  While Detroit didn't get much out of it, drafting Darko Milicic and not being able to turn him into a productive player, the pick could have turned out as Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, or Chris Bosh, all who are better than Thorpe even at his peak.

1993-1994:  Roundabout of the draft picks of the Chris Webber trade
The trades involving Chris Webber included an interesting journey for the draft picks involved.  In 1993, Golden State traded 3rd pick Anfernee Hardaway and number 1 picks in 1996, 1998, and 2000 to Orlando for Chris Webber.  The following year, 1994, Orlando traded the number 1 picks in 1996 and 1998, which were previously acquired from Golden State, to Washington together with Scott Skiles for Washington's 1998#1 and 1996#2.  Later that same year, Washington traded Tom Gugliotta and Golden State's original 1996 and 1998 #1 picks back to Golden State for Chris Webber.  In the end, Golden State recovered its 1996 (Tod Fuller) and 1998 (Vince Carter) first rounders.  Netting out Chris Webber, the final composition of the deal was, in effect, Anfernee Hardaway and 2000 #1 (Mike Miller) for Tom Gugliotta and Washington's 2000 #1 (Chris Mihm).

1979-1986:  Cleveland's Draft Pick Giveaways
This period is associated with the dark ages in the history of the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise (which may now be replicated by the post Lebron James years).  During that period, Cleveland traded away their picks:
1979#1 for Mike Mitchell (ok)
1980#1 for Randy Smith (so-so)
1981 & 1983 #1s for Terry Furlow (disaster)
1982#1 for Don Ford and Chad Kinch (disaster)
1984#1 for Mike Bratz (disaster)
1985#1 for Geoff Huston (disaster)
1986#1 for Richard Washington and Jerome Whitehead (disaster)

Below are two scenarios:  who the picks actually turned out to be, and who could have been drafted in their place if Cleveland had kept the picks:
1979     Greg Kelser                         Sidney Moncrief
1980     Michael Brooks                   Kiki Vandeweghe
1981     Al Wood                             Tom Chambers
1982     James Worthy                      James Worthy
1983     Rodney McCray                  Byron Scott
1984     Sam Perkins                         Charles Barkley
1985     Detlef Schrempf                   Karl Malone
1986     Roy Tarpley                         Roy Tarpley
The Cavs might have had a dynasty in the 80s.

2011 NBA: Playoff Final Four

My initial predictions are now all off with the elimination of both Boston and LA.  Now that we are down to the Final Four, this is how things are shaping up.

EAST:  (1) Chicago vs (2) Miami
I initially had Boston beating both Miami and Chicago on the way to the finals, though I had the Bulls making the Conference Finals where they are now.  They were my second choice to make it in the East after Boston, and it looks like they are looking good after game 1 of the series.  What makes this series interesting is that it features the best team against two of the best individual players in the league.  Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP, but it was all the more deserved because he won it in the context of playing within a team concept.  The Bulls are at least two deep in each position and have a good combination of players that allow them to give opponents different looks.  Take their frontline for example.  Carlos Boozer gives them post scoring and rebounding, Joakim Noah contributes more rebounding and hustle points, Taj Gibson is their designated defender and allows them flexibility against teams going small, while Omer Asik is a solid defender and shotblocker.  They didn't even use veteran Kurt Thomas who gives them mid range shooting, strong rebounding, and post defense (which they don't need against Miami).  In addition to their individual contributions, they are also perhaps the best group of passing big men in the league and are particularly good at interior passing among themselves.  Their perimeter players are just as deep with MVP Rose backed up by CJ Watson.  They have good perimeter defenders in Luol Deng, Keith Bogans, and Ronnie Brewer to cover LBJ and D-Wade, and have Kyle Korver contributing on the offensive side.  Miami, on the other hand, is a team composed of what is actually a big 2 in Lebron and Wade, with Chris Bosh leading a poor supporting cast.  While Lebron and Wade have the talent to win games on their own, I don't believe they can win the series, and the Bosh-led supporting cast isn't good enough to win games themselves.  Bulls win in 6.

WEST:  (3) Dallas vs (4) Oklahoma City
While Dallas has admittedly performed impressively in the playoffs, particularly with the sweep of the Lakers, I can't overlook their history of being chokers and finding ways to lose in the playoffs.  They can only erase this by winning, or Nowitzki-Kidd will go down as the modern version of Malone-Stockton.  They do have an impressive line-up on paper, with similar depth as Chicago:  Chandler and Haywood at center, Nowitzki/Stojakovic/Marion at forward, Kidd/Terry/Barea at guard.  Whether they can come up a winner though is something I would not bet on.  As the Memphis series has shown, OKC is still a bit raw and inexperienced.  They do have a well balanced team that is solid at all positions.  I would not have given them a chance against LA's experience, but since it is the Losericks they face, I'd rather take my chances with OKC winning in 6 games.

Champion:  Chicago in 5 against OKC.