2011 NBA: Playoff Quick View

This may be coming a bit late now that we are well into the first round of the playoffs.  In any case, this is my take on the first round and views on how the playoffs will go.

Eastern Conference:
(1) Bulls vs (8) Pacers.  This may be a no brainer now with Chicago up 3-0 and the series may well end at the conclusion of the game I am currently watching (though maybe not).  The Bulls have been a surprise to me this season, as I did not expect them to go all the way to first place.  They have a solid team going at least 2 deep in all positions and have a superstar and legitimate MVP candidate in Derrick Rose.  Indiana meanwhile has accomplished enough just making the playoffs.  They still have a few weak links in their lineup and some of the young players will be improving over the next couple of years.  That said, the Bulls should wrap this up in 5 games and move on, but look out for the Pacers in the years to come.

(2) Miami vs (7) Philadelphia.  For all of Miami's troubles, they should easily win this series.  Philadelphia is a team that needs to find its identity.  Will they continue to be anchored by veterans Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala or is it time to build around their young players.  Unfortunately for them, the latter may be out of their hands since Brand and Iguodala are close to untradeable due to big contracts.  Miami should win in 4 or 5.

(3) Boston vs (6) New York.  With the injuries to Billups and Stoudemire, the Knicks are just overmatched.  Outside of their big 3, the team is composed of junk players who would not be part of the rotation of any serious contender.  And with Billups out and Stoudemire not at full strength, the Knicks don't stand a chance of winning the series.  Boston in 4 or 5.

(4) Orlando vs (5) Atlanta.  Atlanta hasn't improved much over the past few years, and that is what caused the firing of former coach Mike Woodson.  Luckily for them, however, they ended up matched with the most vulnerable of the supposed contenders.  Despite the presence of Dwight Howard, Orlando can't be taken seriously as a title contender this year.  They have too many talented but non-winner players whose stats are much better than their actual value to a contending team.  They can't be taken as serious contenders until they get more serious pieces around Howard and point guard Jameer Nelson.  The old Hedo Turkoglu would have been one such player but the current version appears way past his prime.  The supporting cast of Jason and Quentin Richardson, Brandon Bass, Gilbert Arenas, and Ryan Anderson needs to be overhauled if the team is to become a serious title contender.  Hawks in 6.

The Bulls should have no problem advancing to the Conference Finals by virtue of a weak bracket (Pacers then Atlanta-Orlando winner), while I see the Celtics beating the Heat in the best series so far.  Unless the Celtics are too beat up after the Heat series, their experience should trump the young talent of the Bulls.

Western Conference:
(1) San Antonio vs (8) Memphis.  While the Spurs lost game 1 without an injured Manu, they should go on to win this series unless Ginobilli has to sit out again.  Memphis is not a serious contender at this point, particularly with Gay out.  Spurs in 6.

(2) LA Lakers vs (7) New Orleans.  Game 1 showed the Lakers vulnerability at the point guard position, but the Lakers have solved it for this series.  New Orleans just gave up too much to LA with the injury to David West and the Lakers should win this in 5 or 6.

(3) Dallas vs (6) Portland.  Dallas is the Western Conference version of Orlando- a good regular season team who just doesn't have enough to go all the way.  They should still win against Portland, though I find this series to be the best candidate for an upset.  Dallas in 7.

(4) Oklahoma vs (5) Denver.  I would have picked Denver as the darkhorse at the start of the playoffs, but Oklahoma has been impressive so far in the post season.  Denver may be a stronger contender next year, but Oklahoma should win this in 5 or 6 games.

For the next round, the aging Spurs may seem vulnerable to the Thunder's youth and athleticism but unless Ginobilli is out or not at 100%, I see San Antonio's experience prevailing in 7.  LA should have no problem against the pretenders from Dallas and win in 5 or 6 games.  After a tough series against Oklahoma, the Spurs may not have enough gas to beat the Lakers.

My fearless forecast is that the Finals will once again feature the Lakers against the Celtics, with LA winning its 3rd in a row because the Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins.