2011 UAAP: Season Postscript

The Ateneo bonfire marked the end of this UAAP season.  The Blue Eagles had a relatively easy time, going 13-1 in the eliminations.  They also coasted to a relatively easy championship series win over FEU, which was perhaps an easier opponent than Final Four opponent UST.  That said, its time to wrap up the season for the different UAAP teams.

ATENEO:  Won their 4th straight championship relatively easily, featuring a balanced offense and solid and unshaking defense.  While they were not expected to be as dominant, anything less than a title this year would have been a disappointment given the level of competition.  There was no other team that even came close to posing a serious challenge.  While the team will return 9 of its top 12 players, and should also feature the comeback of former rookie of the year Ryan Buenafe, a 5th straight title will probably be a bit more difficult than the 4th.

FEU:  A surprise finalist after a disastrous pre-season where they lost big men Pippo Noundou to injury and Reil Cervantes to the pro ranks, they weathered an inconsistent regular season with a solid Final Four to knock off the higher seeded Adamson team.  The will probably continue to play at the Final Four level next year, with Arvie Bringas coming in to take over the slot vacated by graduating Aldrech Ramos. 

Adamson:  Finished the eliminations as the 2nd seed and was the only team to defeat eventual champion Ateneo, but collapsed in the Final Four and lost back to back games to FEU.  This was unexpected for what was basically a veteran team, which will be significantly weaker next year with the loss of their spitfire guards Alvarez and Canada as well as big man Jan Colina, who was surprisingly ineffective in his last year.

UST:  Surprised many by making it to the Final Four over the more highly touted teams of DLSU and NU.  Karim Abdul gave the team an inside presence and this year's Tigers were more balanced in terms of inside and outside games than previous teams.  Abdul returns together with Ferrer and Teng, but they need to replace significant losses in Camus, Fortuna, and Afuang.

NU:  While producing MVP numbers, Bobby Ray Parks did not mesh well with the holdovers and NU actually won a game less this year than last year when they featured Emmanuel Mbe as the centerpiece.  Mbe started slow and couldn't seem to get his game to mesh with that of Parks.  Most of the holdover players actually seemed to regress with the arrival of Parks.  They will have to find a way to solve this if the team will seriously compete next year.

DLSU:  I think the season can accurately be called a coaching disaster.  Featuring a team with depth at nearly all positions, DLSU disappointed and underperformed.  Dindo's departure, which marks the end of the Pumaren mafia, should be good for the team.  That of course presupposes that the new coach is any better than the previous one.  If rumors are true that Jerod Teng will join them next year together with ex Ateneo prospect Mark Tallo, they should be a team to contend with if the new coach can get the team together.

UP:  Going 2-12 is definitely better than 0-14.  But for as long as you have Mike Gamboa playing significant minutes, you know the team isn't much more than a spoiler.  At least they won an individual award with Jet Manuel winning the Most Improved Player award.  Mike Silungan seems to be nothing more than a gunner who will be a high scorer on a weak team.  He doesn't seem to have the smarts and the game to lead a contending team.

UE:  This was a rebuilding year.  Kudos to graduating Paul Zamar for carrying the load in a year that they were not expected to seriously contend.  They have the support players in place but still need a star to build the team around if they will contend.  Let's see how coach Jerry Codinera does in terms of recruitment.

2011 UAAP: DLSU- Wasted Potential

While I am glad that the DLSU team is struggling, I also find myself thinking about how such a lineup should actually be doing much better than it is right now.  The team has tremendous depth at the center and power forward positions, which can feature any two from among Arnold Van Opstal, Norbert Torres, Papot Paredes, Yutien Andrada, Ponso Gotladera, and Jovet Mendoza.  With undersized Maoi Villanueva allowing them to go small and quick, this is a team that I would love to have at my disposal as a coach.  Add to that frontline depth the guard corps led by comebacking LA Revilla and promising sophomore Luigi Dela Paz, a suddenly adept outside shooter in Simon Atkins (presuming he can continue this year what he started last year), designated scorer Jarelan Tampus, and the so far disappointing Almond Vosotros, who should have the pressure eased on him as a third point guard which may improve his development.

Following DLSU's defensive formula, I would likely start with their conventional lineup featuring Van Opstal as the defensive anchor and Torres on offense.  Team them up with Joshua Webb, Dela Paz and Revilla.  If you want to increase the defensive tempo, you can switch in Atkins for either Dela Paz or Revilla and Papot Paredes for Torres.  This would give you twin shotblockers (Paredes and Van Opstal) to anchor an aggressive pressing backcourt.  You can further increase the pressure by putting in Villanueva or Andrada for Van Opstal to give the team a mobile power forward and have four players aggressively pressing backed up by Paredes as the defensive anchor.

For an offensive look, you can swap in Joseph Marata for Webb, which gives the team three outside threats together with Dela Paz and Revilla, which will give big men Van Opstal and Torres more room to operate inside.  For additional scoring punch, they can insert one of their designated scorers.  Mendoza can come in for one of the big guys, and Tampus can come in on the wings.  Gotladera provides an additional big body, while Vosotros gives them a third point guard behind Revilla and Atkins.

My take so far on DLSU is that it is a team that is underperforming, and the main reason for this is that they do not have a coaching staff that develops players.  During the time of Franz Pumaren, you could see the development/improvement of the guards and the wingmen (with the exception of future Hall of Fame Ateneo sixth man Bader Malabes).  And while their big men did not develop/improve much (i.e. Ferdinand, Mike Galinato), the small men more than made up for it.

Unfortunately for DLSU, Dindo seems to be a coach who works with developed players.  He doesn't improve them but rather plays them based on the skills they already have.  Take a look at Webb, Marata, Andrada, and even Vosotros.  They have not improved since they joined DLSU.  That is also what lies ahead for promising talents in Van Opstal, Torres, and Paredes.  And while Luigi Dela Paz seems to be improving, imagine how much more deadly he probably would be under the wings of Franz instead of Dindo.  As for the big men, there is not much hope.  How good can you be if your ceiling is your big man coach, who is none other than a marginal talent in Tonichi Yturri.

If you need further proof of this, take a look at the dark ages of arch rival Ateneo.  While recent years are full of developmental success stories:  Greg Slaughter, Rabah Al Husseini, Nonoy Baclao, Ford Arao, Doug Kramer, JC Intal, etc., there was a time when Ateneo had no Norman Black and had to rely on their own set of marginal talents in Sandy Arespacochaga and Mark Molina as coaches.

It seems that DLSU will not be a team to fear for as long as Dindo and Yturri remain their primary tacticians.  And that may be for quite a while since the Pumaren mafia will not allow for Dindo to be replaced any time soon.  Which I guess shouldn't bother me, since I am rooting against them anyway.  I just can't get over the waste of talent and potential.

2011 UAAP: Ateneo Clear Favorites

Three weekends into the 2011 UAAP season and it seems that anything other than an Ateneo championship would be a surprise.  With today's win over winless UE, Ateneo leads the pack with a 4-0 record.  Based on what I have seen so far, I would cluster the teams as follows:

Title Contenders:  Ateneo, Adamson
Final Four Contenders:  FEU, NU, UST
Pretenders:  UP, DLSU
UP of Season 74:  UE

This year's Ateneo team is potentially the most dominant.  They have three legitimate Mythical 5/MVP contenders in rookies Greg Slaughter and Kiefer Ravena, as well as 4th year man Nico Salva.  They are surrounded by solid role players in defensive stopper Kirk Long and veteran point guard Emman Monfort.  They also feature a deep bench with frontcourt reserves featuring part time starters in Justin Chua and Frank Golla, and comebacking forward Oping Sumalinog.  Their backcourt crew makes up in depth what they lack in individual talent with Juami Tiongson providing shooting and playmaking while Bacon Austria and Tonino Gonzaga can be counted on for scrappy defense if nothing else.  Last year's rookie JP Erram is out of the regular rotation but can be counted on as a spot player to give the bench a shotblocking presence.

The Adamson Falcons may have edged past FEU with the latter's loss of big men Riehl Cervantes and Pippo Noundou.  They have solid big men in Jan Colina and Eric Camson, who can score on anyone.  While they are both best at the power forward slot, finding a way to play them together will make the team that much more dangerous.  Completing the frontline rotation is defensive minded center Lionel Manyara, who gives the team a shot blocking dimension, albeit being limited offensively.  Their size is complemented by perhaps the best point guard tandem in the league this year in their version of twin Speedy Gonzaleses in Lester Alvarez and Jerick Canada.  On the wings they have a slasher in Alex Nuyles and long ball shooters in Roider Cabrera and Janus Lozada.  All three are long and athletic.

FEU may have dropped to third with their depleted frontline.  They still have a solid duo in RR Garcia and Aldrech Ramos, a potential trio if JR Cawaling wakes up and performs to his talent level, or even a foursome if Terrence Romeo continues to develop.  Beyond them, however, their lineup will be stretched.  Mark Bringas and Carl Cruz would have been excellent as the back-up big men, but one of them will have to start at power forward.  The other rotation players are also all quite limited.  Jens Knuttel makes up for his lack of talent with hustle and spunk, as does Christopher Exciminiano.  Rookie Christopher Tolomia might be the only source of offense beyond their top 4 players.

Rookie Bobby Ray Parks makes NU a team to watch for in the future, but they may actually have enough to take advantage of the weakened FEU roster to become the second challenger to Ateneo's 4-peat bid.  Parks and center Emmanuel Mbe might be the best one-two punch outside of Ateneo (choose any two from Slaughter, Ravena, and Salva), and while they may not have much more after last year's rookie Glenn Khobuntin and veteran point guard Joseph Terso, it may be enough to get them past FEU.

UST could be this year's darkhorse.  They have a solid core with the Jerics (Teng and Fortuna), supported by a frontline of Chris Camus and rookie Kevin Ferrer.  There isn't much beyond them though other than solid but nothing more than bench players in Melo Afuang, Paolo Pe, and rookie Karim Abdul.

I have to say that DLSU has been a disappointment, with the biggest bust being non other than coach Dindo Pumaren.  Since he has taken over, there has been no player development -  players have not improved since they joined the team.  Joshua Webb, Yutien Andrada, and Joseph Marata have been pretty much the same players that they were when they first came into the UAAP three years ago, which would be fine as rookies but below expectations as third year men.  While they have continued to be a good defensive pressing team, their offense has been very limited beyond the scoring of guards LA Revilla and Luigi Dela Paz.  Their big men have not developed any reliable offense, which is what you can expect if the best they can be is a modern version of their big man coach Tonichi Yturri, who wasn't much himself.  That would waste the potential of Arnold Van Opstal, Norbert Torres, and Papot Paredes among others.  Unless one of the big men steps up, and either Webb or Marata find their groove, there isn't much to be expected from DLSU this year, and perhaps next year also unless they replace Dindo as coach.

UP managed to break its 18 game winning streak by winning their first game, but they may not have many more wins in them.  While they have climbed out of the cellar, it is not by much, since they will likely end up as the second worst team in the league this year.  Mike Silungan is still a potential star, but any team that features Ateneo discard Mike Gamboa in a major role is in a lot of trouble.  They do have some bright spots for the future in newcomers Alinko Mbah and Jelo Montecastro.  They seem to be on their way out of the cellar this year, but its still not a lock.

As for UE, if they finish out of last place it will be an accomplishment.  Maybe they will go 0-14 also like UP.  In any case, there doesn't seem to be anything or any one worth writing about on this year's team.

2011 NBA: LBJ - Is he as clueless as he seems to be?

An interesting side story to this year's NBA season and Finals is the "hating" on Lebron.  As a number of articles and blogs have pointed out, and as I myself personally feel, the Finals was more about denying Lebron a title than wanting the Mavs to win.  Of course there are the legitimate Mavs fans who would be rooting for Dallas no matter who the opponent was, but it was also interesting to note that a significant portion of the rest of the basketball world, particularly Chicago, Boston, and even LA and OKC fans, jumped on the Dallas bandwagon because they were the only hope left to deny Miami, and particularly Lebron, a title at least for this season. 

I have also read articles of non-Miami supporters and non-Lebron fans who are wondering about why everyone seems so intent on having Lebron fail.  This is my take on things.

1.  Decision-Gate:  This is what started the hate-wave.  Until "The Decision", Lebron fans significantly outnumbered his haters.  It was this act that first earned him the ire not only of Cleveland fans but those of the NBA as well.  Some jumped on the bandwagon because their sense of decency was violated by what James did.  While I cannot speak for all, I do agree with the feeling.  I have no issue with the decision to leave Cleveland, as that is exactly what free agency is for.  It is the manner by which he did it.  It was as if the entire show was meant to mock the Cavaliers franchise and its fans.  Had he called a simple press conference and shared that he was going to Miami for reasons of winning a title, things would have turned out very differently.  He would still be criticized for his decision to leave rather than have a team built around him, but he would not be hated.  Perhaps not even in Cleveland, and definitely not as much as he was after it.  While you can blame media or James' advisers for it, he has to man up and take the blame because in the end it was his decision to go with it. 

2.  Miami Hype:  Compounding the villainy that he gained with "The Decision", he increased the hatred against him with his "five-six-seven championships" comment in Miami.  Granted this would not have sounded as bad had "The Decision" been a simple press conference, Lebron should have used this to mitigate the previous act rather than compound it.

3.  Lequit:  While I personally also had this impression before Cleveland's owner exploded it in the media, the issue of him quitting against Boston (rather than show he tried his best and unfortunately still came up short) would not have been magnified as much.  It may still have come out in discussions on his being a great player but would not have been tainted by the hate that it comes with now.

4.  Character Issues:  Granted that the issues against him would not have been significant if he was (or maybe still is) a candidate for GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), it evolved from merely being a blemish on someone who was admittedly a good and potentially great player, to becoming the basis of characterizing him as a bad person and a player who can't win.

5.  Acknowledge Mistakes:  Throughout his career, I have noticed that Lebron is someone who can't accept that he did anything wrong.  He has a tendency to immediately respond by justifying his actions and it is perhaps only after sound advice that he eventually understands the issue and says the right thing.  But saying the right thing immediately after a crisis goes a long way further than saying it after saying something wrong first.  Just to illustrate these incidents:
>  Lebron initially justified not shaking hands with Orlando.  While he may honestly believe what he says, a simple look back in history shows that NOBODY has done that except the Detroit Bad Boys, who thrived and in fact encouraged such an image.  In their case, they wanted to be hated.  Lebron does the same thing and then justifies why he did it before eventually accepting that it was wrong.
>  After "The Decision", he simply should have apologized and admitted wrong doing.  Doing so may have reduced the negative reaction.
>  In the Finals series, he continued to insist he was doing ok when he was obviously not.  Understandably, this may have been a team strategy to avoid showing the weakness.  But in the eyes of the public, he again seemed to be consistent with his history of justifying what he obviously cannot justify.  And as Dirk and the Mavs proved, there was nothing lost in crying for help as Dirk did after Game 3 when he said he needed help.  And surprise-surprise, they went from being down 1-2 to 3 straight wins after he acknowledged and called out his teammates to help him.
>  His comments after losing the Finals were also indicative of his pattern of self-justification and inability to accept responsibility for doing the wrong thing.  He did not take responsibility that it was his "shrinking acts" in the series, particularly the fourth quarters, that were a big reason for the Heat's loss.

Ultimately I feel it is Lebron's lack of accountability or his being unable to accept accountability that works against him.  He claims he doesn't care, but if so, why does he bother to try and project a good guy image?  Others have embraced villainy in the past (i.e. Charles Barkley and his statements that athlets are not idols, Dennis Rodman, Detroit's Bad Boys) and have been hated less than him.  I'd even venture as far as saying that if he did the same, he would be hated less than he is now.

In summary, Lebron is hated so much because he seems "fake".  He talks self righteously then acts like an asshole.  He justifies obviously wrong acts, then later on acknowledges them.  He looks lost...like he is projecting an image then acting differently from it.  He should take his cue from the Sprite ad and just be himself, whoever that really is.

2011 NBA: Conference Finals Recap

MIAMI-CHICAGO
While I have to admit I am rooting for any and all teams except Miami to win the title (which just leaves Dallas as of this point), I have to admit that they did a masterful job against the Chicago Bulls in the conference finals.  A lot of credit has gone to the Big 2 of Lebron and Wade, and even to their supporting cast members Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem, but more credit perhaps should be due to unsung coach Eric Spoelstra, particularly for the decision to have Lebron guard Derrick Rose.

On the surface, it seems to be an easy call to make:  have your best defender take on the opposing team's best offensive player to limit his effectiveness.  But what may be overlooked is that Spoelstra was able to find perhaps the biggest flaw in the Chicago offense.  Despite all their contributors, Chicago only has one player who creates plays, and that is Rose.  Secondary scorers Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer need to be set-up to score, as do the rest of the lesser players.  By assigning James to take on Rose, Spoelstra effectively choked the offense of the Bulls as there was no one else capable of creating the play.  As I was watching Game 4, I was initially surprised that the Bulls kept going to Rose despite James taking him on.  In my mind, with Miami's best defender on Rose, that means the rest of the defense is weaker and Chicago should have attacked the other match-ups featuring the weaker defenders.  But as the game and series went on, I realized that the Bulls had to go to Rose because there was no one else capable of creating.  Most successful teams have at least two players capable of making the play.  Even Michael Jordan could afford to play decoy because Scottie Pippen could set up the offense without his involvement.  And while Bibby is the official point guard, Miami has two creators in Lebron and D-Wade.  This version of the Bulls though didn't have that secondary playmaker.  Much as I hate the Heat, my objective side finds this coaching move to be a key in clinching the series.

And while not every team has someone who can stop Derrick Rose, the Bulls need to consider acquiring another playmaker who can allow Rose to play decoy and take away the best defender from the defense.  It may mean acquiring a shooting guard who can make his own play or develop Luol Deng into such a role, though that will take a lot of work.  But the Heat may have exposed a Chicago weakness that may make the team vulnerable unless it is addressed.

DALLAS-OKC
I have been a Dallas doubter for years, though now they represent my only hope in denying Lebron and the Heat a title.  The reason for my doubt is that they have always had talented teams, but are not able to pull things off when it matters.  More than the other team finding a way to win, its more of Dallas finding ways to lose.  And while they have done well this year, the last time they made the finals they also found a way to lose, and that was after taking a 2-0 lead against a different Miami Heat team.  So bear with me for having my doubts and reservations about their ability to win.

As for the conference finals, however, Dallas did play well and made sure that they did what they had to for the win.  They exposed Russell Westbrook as someone whose stats were better than his actual ability to help a team win and, for many fans, cast doubt on whether Westbrook can lead a team to a championship.  They also showed that the Thunder need to get an inside scorer to complement Durant's perimeter game. 

In summary, Dallas did what it had to do in order to win the series, and allowed the Thunder to self destruct because of their egoes.  Hopefully they have one more series win in them.  While I am not really a fan of Dirk or Kidd (I wouldn't mind if they retire without winning a title), I do prefer them to letting Lebron win a ring. 

NBA History: What-Ifs

One of the most unpredictable aspects of professional basketball has been the rookie draft.  It has been unpredictable because of a number of factors, such as:

1.  Team Positioning in the draft.  While stronger teams ideally finish low and weak teams finish first, a team's success or failure in a particular season can swing wildly.  Look at the San Antonio Spurs who were able to get Tim Duncan when their playoff caliber team had to go without franchise player David Robinson due to injuries.  Without Robinson, the team fell into the lottery, got the first pick and drafted Duncan, returned the next year with Duncan AND Robinson, and won the title two seasons later.

2.  Assessment of Potential.  Despite all the additional work going into player scouting and drafting, there is still no certainty in determining which amateur player will become a better professional.  Take a look at the 2009 draft.  Hasheem Thabeet was drafted second, but it looks like he will take a long time to become a productive player and perhaps should already be considered a bust.  He cannot even break into the rotation.  Conversely, you have a second round pick, Marcus Thornton, who was a double figure scorer as a rookie for New Orleans and was a 20 point scorer for Sacramento after a mid-season trade.

3.  Future draft picks can go higher or lower.  Draft picks are traded based on where a team expects they will fall, but this does not always hold true.  Take the case of the Seattle Supersonics in 1985.  They traded their 1986 first round pick to Boston for starting guard Gerald Henderson.  They probably expected Henderson's acquisition to make them a playoff team, and projected the pick to be somewhere in the middle of the first round.  Unfortunately, their team continued to lose even with Henderson's acquisition and the draft pick eventually ended up as the second overall pick the following year.  This allowed Boston to draft Len Bias, who could have extended the Celtic dynasty by another 10 years had he not died of a drug overdose.  Seattle later turned this around in their favor trading Henderson and what turned out to be a late first round pick to New York for a pick that ended up 5th overall and became Scottie Pippen.  Henderson, a third round pick and 64th overall, ended up being traded for what became the 2nd pick (Bias) and a 5th pick (Pippen).

Given the uncertainty of drafting, I took a look at some trades and how they eventually turned out after the draft picks turned into players:

October 2005:  New York trades 2006 #1, 2007 #1, 2007 #2, 2009#2 with Jermaine Jackson, Michael Sweetney, and Tim Thomas to Chicago for Eddy Curry, Antonio Davis, and a 2007 #1.
On the surface, this looked like a lopsided trade in New York's favor as they were receiving two starters in Curry (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Davis (7.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) as well as a first round pick.  Curry was then considered to be on-the-rise, and played 3 productive seasons as New York's starting center before injuries plus a large contract turned him into a white elephant.  Antonio Davis was still a productive veteran the following season before going into retirement.
Chicago, on the other hand, were giving up its two main big men for journeyman starter Tim Thomas (12.0 ppg) and young reserve forward Michael Sweetney (8.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  Thomas played one unproductive year for Chicago before being waived, while Sweetney had one productive year before dropping to benchwarmer status the next.
While this trade appeared to be a big "win" for New York in the years immediately following the trade, in hindsight, they were probably better off having kept the first rounders who turned out to be Joakim Noah (2006) and LaMarcus Aldridge (2007).  Their own draft pick turned out to be pretty good in Wilson Chandler, but they in effect gave up two for one.  I am sure Noah or Aldridge could easily have been packaged for Melo in place of Chandler.  Presuming it was Aldridge, that would have given them Noah as a starting center alongside Amare and Melo up front.  Perhaps the conference finals would have featured Noah and the Knicks instead against the Miami Heat.

August 1997:  Vancouver traded a 2003#1 pick to Detroit for Otis Thorpe
Otis Thorpe was a 34 year old power forward coming off a 13.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg season with the Detroit Pistons.  After the trade he played half a year with Vancouver averaging 11.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg before being traded to Sacramento for reserves Michael Smith and Bobby Hurley.  Thorpe played one more season as a starter and two as a reserve before retiring.  In exchange for a player with 4 years left in his career, they gave up a draft choice that ended up second overall in 2003.  While Detroit didn't get much out of it, drafting Darko Milicic and not being able to turn him into a productive player, the pick could have turned out as Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, or Chris Bosh, all who are better than Thorpe even at his peak.

1993-1994:  Roundabout of the draft picks of the Chris Webber trade
The trades involving Chris Webber included an interesting journey for the draft picks involved.  In 1993, Golden State traded 3rd pick Anfernee Hardaway and number 1 picks in 1996, 1998, and 2000 to Orlando for Chris Webber.  The following year, 1994, Orlando traded the number 1 picks in 1996 and 1998, which were previously acquired from Golden State, to Washington together with Scott Skiles for Washington's 1998#1 and 1996#2.  Later that same year, Washington traded Tom Gugliotta and Golden State's original 1996 and 1998 #1 picks back to Golden State for Chris Webber.  In the end, Golden State recovered its 1996 (Tod Fuller) and 1998 (Vince Carter) first rounders.  Netting out Chris Webber, the final composition of the deal was, in effect, Anfernee Hardaway and 2000 #1 (Mike Miller) for Tom Gugliotta and Washington's 2000 #1 (Chris Mihm).

1979-1986:  Cleveland's Draft Pick Giveaways
This period is associated with the dark ages in the history of the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise (which may now be replicated by the post Lebron James years).  During that period, Cleveland traded away their picks:
1979#1 for Mike Mitchell (ok)
1980#1 for Randy Smith (so-so)
1981 & 1983 #1s for Terry Furlow (disaster)
1982#1 for Don Ford and Chad Kinch (disaster)
1984#1 for Mike Bratz (disaster)
1985#1 for Geoff Huston (disaster)
1986#1 for Richard Washington and Jerome Whitehead (disaster)

Below are two scenarios:  who the picks actually turned out to be, and who could have been drafted in their place if Cleveland had kept the picks:
1979     Greg Kelser                         Sidney Moncrief
1980     Michael Brooks                   Kiki Vandeweghe
1981     Al Wood                             Tom Chambers
1982     James Worthy                      James Worthy
1983     Rodney McCray                  Byron Scott
1984     Sam Perkins                         Charles Barkley
1985     Detlef Schrempf                   Karl Malone
1986     Roy Tarpley                         Roy Tarpley
The Cavs might have had a dynasty in the 80s.

2011 NBA: Playoff Final Four

My initial predictions are now all off with the elimination of both Boston and LA.  Now that we are down to the Final Four, this is how things are shaping up.

EAST:  (1) Chicago vs (2) Miami
I initially had Boston beating both Miami and Chicago on the way to the finals, though I had the Bulls making the Conference Finals where they are now.  They were my second choice to make it in the East after Boston, and it looks like they are looking good after game 1 of the series.  What makes this series interesting is that it features the best team against two of the best individual players in the league.  Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP, but it was all the more deserved because he won it in the context of playing within a team concept.  The Bulls are at least two deep in each position and have a good combination of players that allow them to give opponents different looks.  Take their frontline for example.  Carlos Boozer gives them post scoring and rebounding, Joakim Noah contributes more rebounding and hustle points, Taj Gibson is their designated defender and allows them flexibility against teams going small, while Omer Asik is a solid defender and shotblocker.  They didn't even use veteran Kurt Thomas who gives them mid range shooting, strong rebounding, and post defense (which they don't need against Miami).  In addition to their individual contributions, they are also perhaps the best group of passing big men in the league and are particularly good at interior passing among themselves.  Their perimeter players are just as deep with MVP Rose backed up by CJ Watson.  They have good perimeter defenders in Luol Deng, Keith Bogans, and Ronnie Brewer to cover LBJ and D-Wade, and have Kyle Korver contributing on the offensive side.  Miami, on the other hand, is a team composed of what is actually a big 2 in Lebron and Wade, with Chris Bosh leading a poor supporting cast.  While Lebron and Wade have the talent to win games on their own, I don't believe they can win the series, and the Bosh-led supporting cast isn't good enough to win games themselves.  Bulls win in 6.

WEST:  (3) Dallas vs (4) Oklahoma City
While Dallas has admittedly performed impressively in the playoffs, particularly with the sweep of the Lakers, I can't overlook their history of being chokers and finding ways to lose in the playoffs.  They can only erase this by winning, or Nowitzki-Kidd will go down as the modern version of Malone-Stockton.  They do have an impressive line-up on paper, with similar depth as Chicago:  Chandler and Haywood at center, Nowitzki/Stojakovic/Marion at forward, Kidd/Terry/Barea at guard.  Whether they can come up a winner though is something I would not bet on.  As the Memphis series has shown, OKC is still a bit raw and inexperienced.  They do have a well balanced team that is solid at all positions.  I would not have given them a chance against LA's experience, but since it is the Losericks they face, I'd rather take my chances with OKC winning in 6 games.

Champion:  Chicago in 5 against OKC.

2011 NBA: Playoff Quick View

This may be coming a bit late now that we are well into the first round of the playoffs.  In any case, this is my take on the first round and views on how the playoffs will go.

Eastern Conference:
(1) Bulls vs (8) Pacers.  This may be a no brainer now with Chicago up 3-0 and the series may well end at the conclusion of the game I am currently watching (though maybe not).  The Bulls have been a surprise to me this season, as I did not expect them to go all the way to first place.  They have a solid team going at least 2 deep in all positions and have a superstar and legitimate MVP candidate in Derrick Rose.  Indiana meanwhile has accomplished enough just making the playoffs.  They still have a few weak links in their lineup and some of the young players will be improving over the next couple of years.  That said, the Bulls should wrap this up in 5 games and move on, but look out for the Pacers in the years to come.

(2) Miami vs (7) Philadelphia.  For all of Miami's troubles, they should easily win this series.  Philadelphia is a team that needs to find its identity.  Will they continue to be anchored by veterans Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala or is it time to build around their young players.  Unfortunately for them, the latter may be out of their hands since Brand and Iguodala are close to untradeable due to big contracts.  Miami should win in 4 or 5.

(3) Boston vs (6) New York.  With the injuries to Billups and Stoudemire, the Knicks are just overmatched.  Outside of their big 3, the team is composed of junk players who would not be part of the rotation of any serious contender.  And with Billups out and Stoudemire not at full strength, the Knicks don't stand a chance of winning the series.  Boston in 4 or 5.

(4) Orlando vs (5) Atlanta.  Atlanta hasn't improved much over the past few years, and that is what caused the firing of former coach Mike Woodson.  Luckily for them, however, they ended up matched with the most vulnerable of the supposed contenders.  Despite the presence of Dwight Howard, Orlando can't be taken seriously as a title contender this year.  They have too many talented but non-winner players whose stats are much better than their actual value to a contending team.  They can't be taken as serious contenders until they get more serious pieces around Howard and point guard Jameer Nelson.  The old Hedo Turkoglu would have been one such player but the current version appears way past his prime.  The supporting cast of Jason and Quentin Richardson, Brandon Bass, Gilbert Arenas, and Ryan Anderson needs to be overhauled if the team is to become a serious title contender.  Hawks in 6.

The Bulls should have no problem advancing to the Conference Finals by virtue of a weak bracket (Pacers then Atlanta-Orlando winner), while I see the Celtics beating the Heat in the best series so far.  Unless the Celtics are too beat up after the Heat series, their experience should trump the young talent of the Bulls.

Western Conference:
(1) San Antonio vs (8) Memphis.  While the Spurs lost game 1 without an injured Manu, they should go on to win this series unless Ginobilli has to sit out again.  Memphis is not a serious contender at this point, particularly with Gay out.  Spurs in 6.

(2) LA Lakers vs (7) New Orleans.  Game 1 showed the Lakers vulnerability at the point guard position, but the Lakers have solved it for this series.  New Orleans just gave up too much to LA with the injury to David West and the Lakers should win this in 5 or 6.

(3) Dallas vs (6) Portland.  Dallas is the Western Conference version of Orlando- a good regular season team who just doesn't have enough to go all the way.  They should still win against Portland, though I find this series to be the best candidate for an upset.  Dallas in 7.

(4) Oklahoma vs (5) Denver.  I would have picked Denver as the darkhorse at the start of the playoffs, but Oklahoma has been impressive so far in the post season.  Denver may be a stronger contender next year, but Oklahoma should win this in 5 or 6 games.

For the next round, the aging Spurs may seem vulnerable to the Thunder's youth and athleticism but unless Ginobilli is out or not at 100%, I see San Antonio's experience prevailing in 7.  LA should have no problem against the pretenders from Dallas and win in 5 or 6 games.  After a tough series against Oklahoma, the Spurs may not have enough gas to beat the Lakers.

My fearless forecast is that the Finals will once again feature the Lakers against the Celtics, with LA winning its 3rd in a row because the Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins.

2011 NBA: Miami Meltdown?

After all the hype during the offseason, every single bump on the road encountered by the Miami Heat and their Big 3 were hyped up and pounced on by everyone from panicking Heat supporters to Lebron haters.  That's because by signing the Big 3, Miami became the team to watch this season.  Let me highlight that I mentioned and meant team to watch, and not team to beat.

This all started with Lebron's much maligned, and deservedly so, handling of his "decision".  While he does have all the civil rights to do what he did, my main issues with this are:
1.  Great players have teams built around them.  The Scottie Pippens of the world join the Michael Jordans and not the other way around.
2.  Cleveland and its fans did not deserve to be punished this way.  Granted that he would have hurt the Cavs and its fans however he went about the announcement, he handled it selfishly to promote himself and disregard the pain he caused to his now ex-fans.  A simple announcement without the hype would have been less painful for a spurned city.

With the formation of the Big 3, fans and media began hyping up the Heat as the team to beat.  They seem to have forgotten that the NBA is not a 3-on-3 tournament.  Sure, the Heat can and probably will beat any other team's best 3 players, though Boston and New York might dispute that fact.  Regardless, the NBA championship is not a 3-on-3 league and is won by the best team, not by having the best 3-some. 

That said, it would have been unreasonable to expect Miami to win a title in year 1, and the challenges they encountered as the season unfolded would all have been part of the building up process.  Even the current 5 game losing streak, taken by itself, is not something that should create panic.

More than anything that has happened in the season so far, what I do find alarming is the issue of Chris Bosh and his apparent displeasure with his role.  I find this alarming because it is not about fitting in, but more about "getting mine".  I guess Bosh did not realize that when he became part of the Big 3, he was nothing more than the 3rd best player.  It was not a big 3 of equally skilled players.  He should have known that he was there to pick up the leftovers from D-Wade and Lebron.  It may be time to find out if Bosh has the mindset to be part of this type of Big 3.  He may be better suited as a Pippen to someone's Jordan, or as the star/main man in a non-contending/losing team similar to Dominique Wilkins in the 80s and Derrick Coleman in the 90s.  I believe the Heat need to align with Bosh on expectations.  If he needs to "get his", then this may not be the team for him, unless they trade either D-Wade or Lebron.  If the Heat are committed to D-Wade and Lebron together, the 3rd member of their Big 3 needs to have the proper mindset of his role on the team.

2011 NBA: Quick Quips

Landry Fields:  Raymond Felton was quoted saying "He's been doing a great job for us and in my opinion, he's got to be up in the running for the Rookie of the Year with Blake Griffin and John Wall too."  If being in the running means finishing a distant (as in leap years away) second place to Griffin, then he has a point since Fields has a legitimate shot at being the 2nd best rookie.  But if he meant in the running to WIN the ROY, they better test him for drug use.  As shown by his being the only rookie in the All-Star game, there isn't anyone even close to being his caliber.  Wall may eventually have a career that matches or surpasses Griffin, but that has to happen next year onwards. This year's a wrap.

All-Star Game:  Speaking of the All-Star game, it's disappointing how popularity is now the sole basis for determining starters.  It's gotten to the point that the reserves, having been selected by the coaches, may actually be more legitimate than the starters who make it on pure popularity.  Don't get me wrong...I believe that LeBron, D-Wade, Kobe, etc deserve to be in the All-Star game, and most of them deserve to be starters.  But when a Yao Ming continues to be voted as a starter despite his injury prone status and lack of productivity, then that makes the All-Star votes nothing more than a popularity contest.  Heck, with the power of China's votes, Yi Jianlian would probably have been voted a starter if he was on the ballot.

Winning Matters:  If there's anything we can see in the selection of All-Star reserves, its that winning matters, and matters a lot.  In the East, for example, there were 4 Celtics chosen for 7 reserve slots. And in fairness, I think the success of Boston this year is due to all four of them.  You can't choose one over the other 3, or choose 3 out of 4.  It's really an all or nothing deal.  In the West, you have Tim Duncan with, for him, pedestrian numbers at career low levels.  But he's arguably the best all time player for a team that has won 4 titles and is way ahead as the top team in the league so far this year record wise.  Teammate Manu Ginobilli, while putting up good numbers, is not significantly better than the other candidates.  What gave him the edge was the team's record.  Blake Griffin was chosen over Kevin Love as a reserve despite similar, if not better numbers by Love.  I believe the choice between the two boiled down to the Clippers winning more than the Timberwolves, particularly as the season approached the midway point.  Love was initially left off the team until his appointment as Yao Ming's injury replacement.  In fairness to Love, Yao didn't deserve a slot on the team anyway, and is definitely not one of the 12 best players in the West.  It could be said that Love did still make it to the Top 12 by not counting Yao.

2011 PBA: TNT Takes Reyes Over Cardona

Sometime last year, the Talk N Text (TNT) franchise acquired Sta Lucia stalwarts Kelly Williams and Ryan Reyes.  It was a prelude to Sta Lucia eventually leaving the PBA, and was part of what was basically a garage sale.  TNT, already a loaded team, ran the risk of actually being overloaded or having too much talent.  Reyes had to find his slot in a backcourt rotation that included Jimmy Alapag, heir apparent Jason Castro, and perennial MVP candidate Mac Cardona.  Williams faced a similar situation with regard to the TNT frontcourt.  And while a team would definitely welcome any opportunity to strengthen its lineup, this also ran the risk of either damaging a player's career or stunting its growth due to the lack of playing minutes.

Fast forward to 2011. 

It's the first game of the All Filipino Finals where TNT faces San Miguel for the championship.  Cardona is no longer around, having been traded for a draft pick, which was in turn, traded for reserve Larry Fonacier.  This is actually a downgrade of sorts, as Cardona is a part time starter while Fonacier has mostly been a reserve.  This, however, has resulted in a more stable rotation.  Alapag starts at the point and shares time with the team's future starter in Jason Castro.  At times they also play together.  With Cardona gone, Reyes has assumed the starting shooting guard slot, backed up by Castro and Fonacier, who also swings over to small forward at times playing together with two guards. 

In the end, this turned out to be a trade of Cardona for Reyes and Fonacier.  My personal view is the trade worked out well for both teams.  TNT was already a "loaded" team, and didn't need more stars.  As Alapag's backcourt partner, Reyes does not score as much as Cardona but does not have to.  In the meantime, he provides better defense and improved the teamwork due to his ability to facilitate plays.  He can even function as a point guard if this is what the team needs.  Fonacier comes off the bench to provide energy and outside shooting.  He is also not the scorer Cardona is but he shoots better from long range which is what TNTs big men need to open the lane.  He also will not command as many minutes as Cardona thereby improving the rotation as well.

Cardona on the other hand joins an expansion team with much less talent than his old squad.  With Meralco, his new team, he needs to put up big numbers scoring wise, which is exactly what he does the best.  With Meralco, Cardona can become the team's star and go to player, which he could not be in a loaded TNT lineup.  Similarly, Reyes and Fonacier would not be in their best roles if they were required to be selfish and shoot.  I am sure they can approximate the numbers of Cardona but it would not be in either their own or the team's best interests.  Reyes, for example, despite being one of the best defensive players, would be "protected" on defense because they need him to score.  Meanwhile, Cardona, a prime time scorer, would have to sublimate his offense and focus on defense which is not his main strength.

The value of the trade is best evidenced for TNT by the fact that they are in the finals.  They have a more cohesive, better balanced team.  For Meralco, a team that is not yet good enough to win now,  proof is in Cardona's numbers.  He remains one of the league's leading scorers and has actually improved his average.  He is providing exactly what the team needs, which is a lot of scoring as they go through the down years in their building up effort.