2010 UAAP: Basketball Outlook

The UAAP season is roughly one fourth done, with all teams having played 4-5 games each including an Ateneo-LaSalle game. I haven't seen all the teams play extensively, but I feel I have a relatively good understanding of how the season is unfolding.

At this point, FEU seems to be the only team that is a sure thing for the final four, while UP and UE are the only teams that can be written off. The other five teams (Ateneo, LaSalle, UST, Adamson, NU) are all fighting for the remaining 3 final four slots.

While their 4-0 record could easily have been 2-2 if Ateneo and LaSalle got a few more breaks their way, FEU still has the deepest roster with reserves that could easily be starters on other teams. Their problem though, as has been the case the previous years, is that this is a team that doesn't measure up to the sum of the parts. On raw talent alone, they should have been a dominant 4-0, blowing away opponents that have no business making a close game of things. Unfortunately, their two national team players, Ramos and Cawaling, are too much of team players and don't have the meanness to dominate. They have the individual talent to dominate their opponents, but choose to play team ball and stay within the system making them less effective than they could be. As a result, the players carrying the team are Garcia and Cervantes. Garcia is as good as advertised and is arguably even better than Barroca, whose shoes he filled in. He is as talented, if not more talented, than Ramos and Cawaling. Cervantes, on the other hand, has the mean streak that Ramos lacks, but does not dominate because he doesn't have the basketball brains to go along with his talent and mean streak. He is, unfortunately, a "dumb" player, prone to making the wrong decision or taking the bad shot at the wrong time. Noundou provides them with an alternative to Ramos and Cervantes at 4/5, while Sanga could start at 2/3 for other teams. Knuttel, Exciminiano, and Romero are solid in the backcourt, while Bringas and today's revelation Cruz provide additional depth up front.

LaSalle could have tied FEU at 3-1 with a victory today but fell short in double overtime. The advantage of LaSalle's defense oriented game is that this allows them to withstand their offensive ups and downs. They have yet to find their groove as a team on offense, but their defense will make sure they remain in the game. I personally am intrigued by their defensive potential with shotblockers Paredes and Andrada anchoring a press and acting as sweepers to allow their smaller players to gamble. That should be interesting with an athletic Webb leading the pressure by the little guys.

Despite the loss to LaSalle, Ateneo is still a strong contender for the Final Four. Chua and Escueta, with spot minutes from Erram provide a solid center rotation. At the forward line, Salva and Buenafe are the best scoring pair, but either one can team up with Golla and one of the centers to provide a strong rebounding lineup. Dela Cruz may end up being the odd man out since he doesn't score as well as Salva or Buenafe, and doesn't rebound as well as Golla. The backcourt is the weak link, and heavily dependent on Salamat, Long, and Monfort. While that trio is shaky at best as your backcourt reliables, there is not much else behind them. Austria, despite his veteran status, seems to actually hurt the team more than helping them. Tiongson still seems too raw, while Gonzaga just doesn't have much talent to begin with.

Adamson is one of this year's darkhorse candidates. The graduation of Leo Canuday improves their team, sort of addition by subtraction. Colina, Nuyles, Alvarez, and Canada form a solid nucleus to be competitive and have a shot at the final four slot. Their weak link is center Galinato, and if one of the newcomers can take over his slot and be productive, the team will be better for it.

NU is another darkhorse. While their players may not be as good individually as Adamson's nucleus, they do have a more complete lineup. With the arrival of Mbe and Khobuntin at the big man slots, erratic and inconsistent Jewel Ponferrada's use can now be managed. Last year, the team had to live and die with his flashes of brilliance bookended by spells of ineptitude. With less minutes, he may actually be able to improve his productivity. The perimeter slots also are solid, with Baloran at forward, and Terso and Hermosisima as the primary guards. Tungcul, Singh, Ludovice, and Magat will be counted upon to be reliable in relief roles.

UST is the sixth candidate for the four slots. This team is the reverse of Ateneo, heavily dependent on their guards and on outside shooting to make up for the weakness in the big man slots. UST's strategy seems to be to try to control their opponents' big men with their own, and then try to get the win with their wingmen. Teng is growing to be this team's star, and his slashing game is complemented by their primary 3-point shooters Fortuna and Bautista. Wingmen Mariano and Daquioag provide additional scoring. Camus is the team's best big man, whether it be scoring, rebounding or defense, while Afuang provides a little of everything. Rookie Pe does not score much but provides bulk and rebounding to complement the other two. Mamaril functions as the fourth big man when necessary, playing the left over minutes but not contributing much.

UE may have the UAAP's best individual player in Paul Lee and may have found their go to guy for next year in Acibar but don't offer much. Despite a rotation composed of seemingly solid players in Sison, Co, Martin and Mikee Reyes, Silungan, Padilla, and Lopez, the team still finds new ways to lose.

2010 UAAP: DLSU Beats Ateneo

In the first Ateneo-LaSalle showdown this season, the Green Archers showed end game poise as well as playing with more heart to break a 6-game losing streak to the Blue Eagles. ADMU actually struck first in the fourth quarter, and appeared to put the game away taking a 9 point lead with only about 3 minutes left. But instead of finishing off DLSU, ADMU played defensive ball which allowed DLSU to come back and pull off the victory in the end.

What DLSU Did Right

• LaSalle played good defense for 40 minutes. They played with maximum effort and energy even on plays that went wrong. They seemed to be the team that was committed to win with defense. They kept the game close mainly through their defense, not with their offense.
• They did not give up at the end. Despite Ateneo erecting a 9 point lead with 3 minutes left, DLSU called time, settled down, and buckled down to work. They did not immediately erase the lead, but rather chipped away at it one basket and one defensive stop at a time. While they forced some turnovers, Ateneo actually managed to get shots up during DLSU's run but the good defense played by the Archers made Ateneo miss.
• The team does not have any star player. The players seemed to be aware of this, and appeared more conscious of working hard and playing together. For most of the game, they stayed within the system and rarely tried to do anything not dictated by the system.
• Joseph Marata. He is a key scorer in DLSU's scheme of things. He played well today, and shone in the end game.
  

What DLSU Did Wrong

• Admittedly not much. One of them was Andrada's attempt at a breakaway dunk which he missed and turned the momentum against DLSU.
• A near fatal move, which led to ADMU's erecting a 9 point lead, was the unfathomable decision to go to Ferdinand in the post two plays in a row. This led to two failed offensive possessions and two Ateneo baskets.

What Ateneo Did Right

• In fairness to the team, Ateneo played decent ball for 37 out of 40 minutes of the game. They took their runs when they could and tried to stop DLSU from putting together any extended runs of their own. They actually managed to do this with the exception of DLSU's 13-1 finishing kick.
• Justin Chua proved that the UST game was not a fluke. I am glad to note that I was wrong in saying that he has not improved in 3 years. If he continues to play at this level, ADMU will have a chance.
• Kirk Long has been playing with aggressiveness this season, and this game as well. If he can recover his long range shooting, that combined with his newly displayed aggressiveness attacking the hoop and his steady defense makes him Ateneo's x-factor.
• ADMU rebounded well as a team, particularly in the first half. Even when they were not able to convert, their offensive rebounding took its toll on DLSU.

What Ateneo Did Wrong

• Ending the game on the short end of a 13-1 run.
• Playing defensive ball after taking a 9 point lead. The team's offense suddenly lost direction as they passed the ball around for most of the shotclock and took bad shots with the clock running down.
• Playing Bacon Austria in the endgame. Granted Long fouled out, they at least should have ensured that he would not end up with the shot. They played into the hands of DLSU's defense, which appeared to be designed to let Bacon end up open and take the shot. He just might be ADMU's version of Bader Malabes, a player more valuable to the opponent than to his own team.
  
• No one stepped up as the go-to guy, particularly during DLSU's end game run. Nico Salva lost his confidence after getting a shot blocked early in the game and was hesitant to shoot after that.

Team Outlook: DLSU
I like how the DLSU team is shaping up. At this point, I think they have a solid defensive unit, with the presence of two shotblockers in Paredes and Andrada to anchor the press. I am actually intrigued at the thought of using them together as twin defensive anchors and utilizing Webb's athleticism with Atkins and Tolentino to form the front end of the pressure defense. Villanueva can replace either Paredes or Andrada, and Marata provides firepower off the bench behind both Webb and Atkins. Ferdinand and Mendoza are best off competing for the fourth big man role sharing leftover minutes behind Paredes, Andrada, and Villanueva. Dela Paz and Tampus should complete the rotation at small forward/off guard role, while Elorde and Vosotros cover the back-up minutes at the point. They should compete for the Final Four this year, though any accomplishment beyond that would be gravy.

What the team still needs is a low post scoring big man. That would have been Bringas, who would be the perfect complement to Andrada and Paredes, providing the offense they don't have while also having them cover for his defensive shortcomings. Next year's highly touted rookie Torres may provide that and more (i.e. if he can score AND play defense).

Team Outlook: Ateneo
Despite losing one of the two most important games of the year, Ateneo still remains a contender given their showing against FEU. The team's rotation though still needs to be cleaned up. Unlike previous years when the team's best players would be the best lineup, this year's Blue Eagles require a bit more mixing and matching. With back to back double solid games, Chua has probably solidified his status as the team's number 1 center ahead of Escueta and Erram. At forward though, the team has a lot of options, perhaps even a bit too much. Salva and Buenafe provide them with the best offense, while Golla and Salva the best rebounding and defense. They also need to find time for Art Dela Cruz, who is not as good a rebounder as Golla, nor as good a scorer as Salva or Buenafe. In the backcourt, their best pair is composed of Salamat and Long, who between them can share the point guard duties. In terms of true point guards though, only Monfort has been productive, and he has too many liabilities to play more than back-up minutes. As for the other guards in the rotation, Tiongson seems to raw, while Austria has limited skills and should be best used as a situational defender similar to how they use Gonzaga.

They do seem to have enough to win a lot of elimination games and make the Final Four. Given the balance of the teams though, they are not assured and are susceptible to an upset by almost any other team. Even if they survive the first pairing of the Final Four, they probably do not have enough to beat FEU for the title. Should FEU fall before the finals though, then they have as good a chance as any other team.

2010 UAAP: Ateneo's Title Chances

Ateneo and FEU faced off in their respective first games in what could be a preview of the championship matchup. While this year's Ateneo team is significantly weaker than last year, with role playing rookies coming in to replace ex-MVP Rabeh Al-Husseini, Defensive Player of the Year Nonoy Baclao, and Finals MVP Jai Reyes, a case could be made that the relative team strengths has also gone down. FEU for one still has its main men from last year in RR Garcia, Aldrich Ramos, JR Cawaling, and Paul Sanga, and while they ended the year without Andy Barroca, he was part of the team at the start of last year's tourney.


Unlike last year when Ateneo won the matchup of the pre-tournament favorites, FEU came up big in the endgame this time, and Ateneo faltered missing two potential opportunities to tie or take the lead at the end of the game. The defeat notwithstanding, if FEU is indeed the overwhelming favorite to win this year, then today's game would indicate that the team is still a contender despite the loss of Al Husseini, Baclao, and Reyes. As I have not seen the team play before today, my assessment of the team is based purely on what I saw today and what I know of the players from past years.


Point Guard: This looks like the team's problem position. Eric Salamat started in this position, though Kirk Long shared the playmaking duties from the off guard spot. While the combination was adequate for today's game, Salamat seemed less effective in this role than in his more comfortable off guard role. With Eman Monfort as the only back-up (Juami Tiongson was not used and appears to not be part of the rotation), this position has to be considered weak.


Off Guard: Kirk Long performed better today as the 2-guard than Salamat did at the point. Salamat's ability to swing over should stabilize the position, but given the lack of depth at the point, and presuming that Salamat will end up playing extensive minutes there, that leaves only Bacon Austria and Tonino Gonzaga as the rotation players here. That's not much.


Small Forward: Nico Salva started at the position, but was largely ineffective in the minutes spent at this position. Their best small forward appears to be Ryan Buenafe. Given the team's lack of creators on offense, Buenafe will have to play consistently and take control of this position for the team to perform well. His play was a major reason in Ateneo's being able to keep up with FEU. Buenafe will have to play consistently and score well at the small forward slot for Ateneo to have a good season.


Power Forward: This should be the most stable position for the Blue Eagles, with Nico Salva seeing most of his minutes here alongside Ryan Buenafe at the 3-spot. Salva is most effective when he takes the bigger players outside to the perimeter and forces them to have to guard his jumpshot, which opens up the lane for penetration. Rookie Arthur Dela Cruz surprised everyone in the first half and shows potential to be a good scorer off the bench. The problem with both Salva and Dela Cruz is they are both lean and may not be able to stop the more physical forwards such as FEU's Pippo Noundou and Reil Cervantes. Ateneo did start Frank Golla, but while he does have bulk and a banger's mindset, he also has limited skills and does not seem to have much potential to get better.

Center: Expected to be the team's weakest position with the departure of starter Al Husseini and power forward Baclao who doubled as the back-up center, they were surprisingly stable at this position primarily due to Jason Escueta, whose physical play and enforcer mindset served him well against the more athletic FEU frontline. He was able to hold his position inside, grab offensive rebounds, and also box out the FEU big men. He was by far the most effective Ateneo center. Rookie JP Erram had his moments, particularly on defense but is way too raw on offense to be much of a factor. Junior Justin Chua has not developed much since his first year, and it seems that he won't be a Black miracle in the mold of Doug Kramer, Ford Arao, and Al Husseini.

2010 Offseason: Quick Thoughts Post LeBron Announcement

A couple of hours back, LeBron James made the announcement that he will be leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat for a chance to win titles with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. While I have been critical of James and I agree that he quit on his team in the playoffs, I have to say that I do like this decision. Most important thing is he did not go to New York. Apologies to Knicks fans but I don't agree with the team's efforts in trying to get LeBron, which is basically throw away a few seasons and try to buy the best team available. At least Miami competed last year, and only gutted their team this offseason.

NEW YORK: According to the news reports, LeBron is now more hated in New York than Reggie Miller. Knicks fans need to get their brains straightened out. You expected to get LeBron by sending Isaiah Thomas as a last minute emissary? You actually think Amare Stoudamire can deliver more wins than Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh? All you've got is money, and apparently it ain't good enough.

CLEVELAND: I read the letter of the Cavs owner guaranteeing Cleveland will win a title before LeBron does. From what I know about Dan Gilbert, he does not issue idle threats. I'm curious to see what moves he has planned for this offseason and how he plans to rebuild the team. I am sure he will definitely try and that alone is worth monitoring.

MIAMI: With all their money tied up in Wade, Bosh, and James, and only Mario Chalmers left (Michael Beasley is rumored to be traded to Minnesota for draft picks), that leaves them with 8 roster spots that are for the league minimum. Unless there are that many veterans willing to sign for the minimum for a chance to win a title, they might have to unretire Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, and John Stockton to fill in the remaining roster slots.

JIM LITKE's ARTICLE IN USA TODAY: "LeBron is now the king of what, exactly?" In one part of the article, Litke calls LeBron a "bigger, badder version of Scottie Pippen, another prince who collected a fistful of rings yet was never really cut out to be a king." He closed the article saying that the Cavs fans may have felt hurt by James' decision because LeBron "is one of their own, maybe the best athlete most of them will ever see, and now he doesn't want to be there. Some king he turned out to be."

2010 Offseason: Wade-Bosh Tandem

The latest breaking news in the NBA free agent market is that Chris Bosh has agreed to come to Miami and team up with Dwyane Wade in an effort to bring another title (or a dynasty as Pat Riley claims) to add to the franchise's first championship brought in by Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.

My first impression is that this is a good deal for both players. Wade is a franchise maker of a superstar but he can't win it alone. He won his first title with a team build around his youthful energy, athleticism, and explosiveness and backstopped by an age-ing yet then capable Shaq bringing size, strength, and experience. Wade knows he can carry a team, but also realizes that he cannot carry a team to a title on his own.

As for Chris Bosh, despite all the hype, he is actually more of a support player and definitely not a franchise player. At his best, he would have been similar to a Paul Pierce prior to the formation of Boston's Big 3...a talented player who would be a perennial all-star but not someone to carry a team to a title without a strong supporting cast.

That said, this deal allows both players to fill roles that they fit best. Wade will be the franchise player as well as the team's heart and soul. Bosh, on the other hand, would be among the best, if not the best, second fiddle in the league. He will be there to step up during the times Wade will struggle, and also provide leadership for the supporting cast. The only question now though is how good a supporting cast can the Heat put together, given that they have little else other than Wade and Bosh. With this as a foundation, however, they should have no difficulty attracting free agents who are about to enter the latter stages of their careers, and whose focus is more on winning a title than on personal earnings (i.e. contracts). Players like Heat free agent Jermaine O'Neal, who perhaps has another 1-2 years left as a productive player may sign for less than their market value in exchange for the opportunity to win a title.

Note: Interesting how Lebron has a one hour special as a venue to announce the decision he will make. Perhaps they should also have additional one hour specials to allow him to explain (1) How he gave up on the Boston series and caused the collapse of last year's Cavs, and (2) Why he failed to shake hands with Dwight Howard after yet another early exit two years ago.