One of the more interesting rookies in the 2009 draft was DeJuan Blair. This was because opinions about him varied greatly. In the pre-draft discussions, his name was all over the first round, from being a mid lottery pick in some drafts as the best or second best power forward candidate, all the way to a late first round pick because he was an undersized rebounder with a history of knee problems. His supporters looked at his rebounding skills and wingspan, as well as a successful college career in a big time program (Pitt). His detractors, on the other hand, call attention to his being undersized for an inside player (6-7 and too bulky to develop into a wing player), as well as previous injuries to both knees. Despite all the flip flopping, however, he was still projected to go late in the first round at worst.
During the actual draft, he suffered the greatest fall. He was not drafted in the first round, and dropped all the way to the 37th pick where the San Antonio Spurs took a chance on him. It was a safe pick for the Spurs, a contending team with a solid, albeit ageing, lineup. They drafted a potential lottery talent with a second round pick. Considering the varying opinions about him, Blair would have been a safe pick anytime after the 20th pick, particularly for the stronger teams in the league. Portland, for one, drafted 2 power forwards (Victor Claver at 22 and Dante Cunningham at 33) ahead of Blair. There were a total of 9 power forwards drafted ahead of him.
A few games after the halfway point of the season, Blair has proven to be a steal of a second round pick. While he is no franchise saving pick, he has established himself as a solid rotation player and part time starter. While San Antonio has struggled, they are still ranked 5th in the Western Conference, and Blair has been a key member of the team. So far this year, he started 20 of his first 44 games, playing 18 minutes per game and contributing 7.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He had his career highs in the same game, a 28-point, 21-rebound performance making him the first rookie to get a 20-20 since his now veteran teammate Tim Duncan did it in 1998. Not to get ahead of ourselves, he is no candidate for rookie of the year, but is a legitimate candidate to make the all rookie second team.
Looking at the other power forwards drafted ahead of him, this is how Blair compares:
1. Blake Griffin: Despite missing the entire season due to injury, he is still the best power forward in the draft. He may not end up being the best player, but he should still develop into the best at his position in the draft.
8. Jordan Hill: Blair is having a more productive season than Hill, but Hill may end up with a better long term career. Hill was drafted for his potential, so his current skills and productivity should not be the basis for assessing this pick.
13. Tyler Hansbrough: The UNC alum is actually one of the few forwards with statistically comparable numbers to Blair (17.6 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg). He is a better scorer, but not as good a rebounder. As a 4-year collegian, Hansbrough is also pretty much as good as he will get. That said, I would say its a toss up between Hansbrough and Blair. Blair gives you a power game and strong rebounding, while Hansbrough offers better scoring and mobility.
16. James Johnson: The higher of two rookie power forwards for the Bulls, Johnson has turned out to be the less productive one. At this point in the season, he is a bench player who has not contributed much. Unless his career improves significantly, he should be considered a bust even as a late first round pick. Of course its too soon to tell, as most rookies need 2-3 years, but at this point, I'd say Blair would have been a better pick at this slot.
22. Victor Claver: One of 2 Blazer power forward picks ahead of Blair, Claver has not played in the NBA this year. He could turn out to be a productive player ala Marc Gasol, or end up being a bust. Given the Blazers' big man problems this year though, they could have used another big man to fill in for the injuries. Blair would have also been a good fit at this pick and would have logged extensive playing time for Portland due to the season ending injuries of their 2 centers, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla. They are actually starting 39-year old Juwan Howard in the middle.
26. Taj Gibson: The lower and more productive of the Bulls' 2 first rounders, he does save the draft for Chicago since he would have been a worthwhile pick at 16 in place of Johnson. So far this year, he is perhaps the top power forward performer (with Griffin logging zero games), averaging 24.8 minutes, 8.4 points, and 6.5 rebounds. If we move Gibson up to Johnson's slot at 16, then Blair would also have been a good pick at 26.
27. DeMarre Carroll: Carroll has been a spot player for the Grizzlies, playing 12.8 minutes per game, with 3.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg. He could develop into a rotation player, but he probably won't become much better than Blair. I would also have taken Blair at this slot over Carroll as well.
31. Jeff Pendergraph: Drafted by Sacramento but traded to Portland, he started the season slow because of an injury, Pendergraph rejoined Portland just in time - after the back-to-back injuries to their centers. This has given him a slot in the rotation, playing more than 15 minutes a game. He has not been as productive as Blair in nearly similar minutes, however, scoring only 3.4 ppg and grabbing 3.7 rpg. I would also have gone with Blair here.
33. Dante Cunningham: Another Portland rookie with extensive playing time because of the center injuries, he may actually be playing more than he should. He is averaging a respectable 3.2 ppg and 2.4 rpg in nearly 10 minutes per game, but he would most likely have been playing less signficant minutes than he has so far. Again, Blair would probably have been more productive in this slot.
In hindsight, Blair would have been a decent pick at 13 (Hansbrough) and 16 (Johnson). Swapping Gibson for Johnson would have landed him no later than 26th. That is, of course, just considering teams drafting power forwards. If we consider teams drafting for talent and who may have taken him in hindsight, the right prediction would probably have been late lottery or mid first round pick. He is definitely better than the 37th player in the draft.
