2009 Playoffs: Lakers-Magic Finals

With matching game 6 blowout victories, the Lakers and Magic have set a date with each other in the NBA Finals. Both series started out with very close games, with 7 points separating the winners and losers combined in the first four games, but ironically both also ended with blowouts in game 6.

Coming from the series against the Celtics, I didn't think the Magic had any chance against Cleveland. I had expected them to use their perimeter playing abilities to force the Celtics into mismatches, exploiting the speed and outside shooting of a mobile 4-man against Boston's slower frontliners. In other words, I thought they would use the same game plan against Boston that they did in the regular season and against Cleveland. Having seen them struggle against the likes of marginal talents such as Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine, I didn't expect the Magic to have much of a chance against a better Cleveland team. But surprise, surprise - they were keeping the perimeter game under wraps for the Conference Finals. Consequently, they beat a better Cleveland team in 6 games, after needing the entire 7 games to get rid of a much weaker Boston team. And while I still can't understand why they didn't play this way against Boston, they did so against Cleveland are now in the Finals because of it.

Out West, the Lakers closed out the Nuggets with a Game 6 blowout that was not indicative of how close the series was. Denver proved to be a tough match for Boston, and if they can keep the team together next year if not improve it, they will be a contender again. With the series tied after 4 games, it was again Game 5 that decided the series. The Lakers though will still have to address the subpar play of Andrew Bynum and their inconsistent point guard play.

The Finals will be an interesting match up. Orlando's game plan will be tested, as there are mismatches on both ends. The Magic will try to force the Lakers big men to chase them on the perimeter, primarily Pao Gasol when Andrew Bynum plays Howard, and Lamar Odom, when Gasol moves to the 5 spot. On the Lakers side, Gasol and/or Odom are much better offensive players than Cleveland's Anderson Varejao and will look to return the favor by posting up their perimeter oriented defenders Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu. The match-up at power forward could be the key here, whether Orlando's perimeter offense will force the Lakers to go with a smaller line up, or whether the Lakers can do enough damage offensively to force the Magic to go with a second big man/post player for defensive purposes.

MATCH-UPS:

CENTER: Dwight Howard vs Andrew Bynum/Pao Gasol. While Howard is the best player at this position, the Lakers do have two talented athletic defenders who also have a post game to force Howard to guard his own man and possibly help get him in foul trouble. If Howard does get in foul trouble, either Bynum or Gasol should have a field day against back-up Marcin Gortat, who while a capable back-up, will end up facing starter level talent in either Bynum or Gasol.

POWER FORWARD: Rashard Lewis vs Pao Gasol/Lamar Odom. Lewis will have to be at his best offensively and force the Lakers to chase him out on the perimeter. Unlike the offensively impotent Cleveland bigs, the Lakers can attack him on the defensive end as well by posting him up. It will be interesting to see who is able to stop the other. Odom provides the Lakers with a better perimeter defender, given his ability to also play small forward, but he is also not as adept in the post offensively as Gasol.

SMALL FORWARD: Hedo Turkoglu vs Trevor Ariza. Another key to the series will be how well Ariza can defend against Turkoglu. At 6-8, he is nearly as tall as Hedo, and his superior athleticism may create problems with the slower Turkoglu. The Magic should also not take Ariza for granted on offense, as he has been hitting outside shots throughout the playoffs. He is currently hitting .558 from the field including .500 from three (30/60 from three in 18 games so far). He has had some injury problems in the playoffs and that may become a factor as the series goes forward.

SHOOTING GUARD: Courtney Lee/Mickeal Pietrus vs Kobe Bryant. As with the Denver series, the only question here is how well the Magic defenders can hold down Kobe. They can't really stop him, but they can give him enough trouble and make him work hard enough for his points that fatigue becomes a factor. Offensively, while they will not outscore Kobe, the Lakers have to make sure they don't let Lee or Pietrus get hot from the perimeter.

POINT GUARD: Rafer Alston vs Derek Fisher. While a relatively low key match-up, an explosion by either one of these could swing the balance of the series. Alston has proven capable of producing big games offensively, while Fisher has a history of hitting clutch shots. If any of these two are in the headlines of the game recaps, that would be a big plus for their team.

BENCH: Pietrus/Marcin Gortat/Anthony Johnson vs Odom/Luke Walton/Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown. Aside from Pietrus and Odom, key relievers will be Gortat given Howard's penchant to get into foul trouble, and Walton's ability to defend Lewis/Turkoglu when he comes in for Ariza. I think both coaches would be happy if their benches can break even when on the court and are relying primarily on the starters to make the difference.

2009 Playoffs: Cavaliers Choke

After a dominant regular season and an unbeaten first two rounds of the playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers have come crashing back down to earth. They are down 3-1 to the Orlando Magic, who would have swept the series by now if not for Lebron's game winning lucky shot at the end of Game 2, a game the Cavaliers did not deserve to win based on how they played.

The Magic, on the other hand, are using their perimeter strength to create mismatches against the bigger but slower Cavs. This is actually how they played the regular season, forcing power forwards of their opposing teams to have to guard either Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu out on the perimeter. In Game 4, Cleveland actually adjusted its rotation, with their big men Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace playing a combined 79 out of a maximum of 265 minutes (or 30% of total minutes) as compared to an average of 89 out of 240 minutes (37% of total minutes) in games 1-3. Perimeter reserves Daniel Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak, who played a combined 19 minutes in games 1-3, each played more than 20 minutes in game 4, as the Cavs went with Lebron at the 4 spot in an effort to match up better with the Magic's perimeter players.

In fairness to Lebron, he has actually performed at a higher level in the conference finals as compared to the regular season and first two rounds. Unfortunately for him, his teammates have become more dependent on him, as they have failed to step up. Mo Williams, while averaging more points in this series (17.3 ppg vs 14.8 ppg), has shot a very poor 32% from the field as compared to 44% in the first two rounds. His backcourt partner, Delonte West, is also down from 48% to 43%. In terms of total contribution to the team, James is scoring 41% of the Cavs output in the conference finals, as compared to 35% in their first 8 games, which were all wins.

At this point, the Cavs need a miracle to pull out the series, given that teams that have taken a 3-1 lead went on to win 182 out of 190 playoff series since 1947, or 95% of the time. In order to even have a shot at the 5%, the Cavs need James' supporting cast to step up and contribute more.

Postscript: Orlando is playing the way I expected them to play against the Celtics. In that series, however, they failed to do so, being unable to capitalize on the speed and agility of Lewis and Turkoglu to force the Celtics big men to chase them on the perimeter. I felt that shortcoming was the reason that series went all the way to Game 7, and it seems that they are now exploiting that to end the Cavs series quicker.

2009 Playoffs: Conference Finals Nailbiters

The Lakers 6 point margin of victory in Game 3 was nearly the total combined winning margin for the first four conference finals games. Both games of the Cleveland-Orlando series were decided by 1 point, while in the LA-Denver series, the Lakers won game 1 by 2 points and the Nuggets won game 2 by 3 points. That's a total of 7 points separating the teams in 4 games, or an average winning margin of only 1.75 points. Game 3, in fact, has been the only game where the final shot/play was not a potential game winner.

As far as the teams are concerned, I'd have to say that Cleveland has been a disappointment, getting off to fast starts but unable to keep the lead. They've choked big time in both 4th quarters, and the Magic have shown more end game poise. Luckily for them Lebron saved them in game 2, but that was also a game the Cavs deserved to lose based on their performance. They have not provided enough support to Lebron, who tired himself out in game 1 and nearly lost game 2 with his travelling violation. The Cavs offense has become too predictable, with Lebron running nearly every play either as the scorer/finisher or the passer. Mo Williams and Delonte West will have to take their turn running the offense, and they should also go in the post to Zydrunas Ilgauskas everytime Dwight Howard sits. Orlando, meanwhile, has played the game I felt they should have played against Boston- utilizing the quickness of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to create a mismatch away from the ring against the slower 4-man that Cleveland will play (either Anderson Varejao or Joe Smith). This has been so effective that Cleveland actually had to adjust, going small with Lebron at 4 and Sasha Pavlovic at 3. Game 3 will be key - if the Cavs still play the same way, then it looks like the series is for Orlando to take.

Out West, the series looks even. At this point it seems to be headed for a game 7. With the teams evenly matched, any unexpected performance could tilt the series towards either team. On the Lakers side, if Andrew Bynum starts to play consistently on defense and on the boards, he could be the difference maker. For the Nuggets, JR Smith or Linas Kleiza or both of them getting hot from the perimeter for an extended period could be the key. In game 3, the Lakers managed to stop Carmelo for the first time this series, while the Nuggets were still unable to stop Kobe. An edge in the head to head matchup of these two could also be the key to the series as it was in this game. I have to say though that I'm hoping for a Nuggets upset, not that I'm a Denver fan, but the Nuggets have played well and deserve to move on, while the Lakers have relied mainly on their talent advantage to get this far. I just don't think they deserve a finals seat, save for Kobe.

2009 Playoffs: Conference Finals

The second round of the NBA playoffs officially concluded today with the expected, albeit delayed, victories of the LA Lakers and the Orlando Magic over the Yao- and T-Mac- less Houston Rockets and the KG-less Boston Celtics. The extended nature of their victories, however, indicated possible weaknesses that could be exploited by their opponents. Already without McGrady the entire playoffs, the Rockets actually played the Lakers evenly (2-2) since they lost Yao after Game 3. The Celtics, on the other hand, managed to match-up Brian Scalabrine with Rashard Lewis and get away with it. They were also able to turn the Glen Davis-Lewis/Turkoglu matchup into an advantage by posting up Big Baby rather than a mismatch with Lewis/Turkoglu using their speed to get easy perimeter shots against Davis.

Looking ahead to the next series, Cleveland looks to have an easy time against the Magic, given Orlando's performance against Boston. Cleveland has a depth of big men in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith, to try and slow down Dwight Howard. Ilgauskas will also force Howard to play some defense as he is a capable low post scorer. In terms of the perimeter game, the Magic have no one to match-up defensively with LeBron James, and will need their team defense to be at its best to be able to control him. Given that they need Lewis and Turkoglu on the floor for offense, Stan Van Gundy may have to play Mickeal Pietrus at the shooting guard spot to defend against James. Courtney Lee, aside from coming off an injury, seems too small to pose a serious challenge to LeBron. Collectively, Cleveland's perimeter players (LeBron, Maurice Williams, Delonte West plus Wally Szcerbiak and Daniel Gibson) should prove superior to Orlando's (Turkoglu, Lewis, Pietrus, Lee, plus Rafer Alston and JJ Reddick). This all adds up for another easy series win, possibly another sweep, for the Cavs.

Out West, the Nuggets should prove to be an interesting match for the Lakers. With the Lakers struggling and playing below par, and the Nuggets seeming to be at their best, the time may be right for the Nuggets to pull off an upset. If the Rockets, with all the injuries, were able to extend LA to seven games, the Nuggets may have enough to win the series. Denver has depth in the post (Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, plus minutes from Linas Kleiza swinging in from small forward) to neutralize LA's Pau Gasol, an injured Lamar Odom, and an under-performing Andrew Bynum. In Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, they may have the scoring and poise, and in Billups, the championship experience, to offset what Kobe gives the Lakers. In terms of the role players, Denver's perimeter crew of scorers JR Smith and Linas Kleiza, and defensive specialists Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter should prove superior to the Laker bunch of an ageing and struggling Derek Fisher, defensive specialist Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, and youngsters Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown, who could be the wild card for the Lakers. A Lakers team firing on all cylinders would still be the better team, but they may not be up to it. Should they slip up, the Nuggets will be waiting to capitalize.

If things work out as expected, I'm expecting a Cleveland-Denver finals, with LeBron getting a relatively easy ride to his first title. If the Lakers are able to pull things together, however, I think they will make for tougher competition against Cleveland, and may actually be able to deny LeBron.

2009 Playoffs: Surprises

I have to give credit to Boston and Houston for pulling off surprising wins lately. The Celtics managed to win Game 4 on the road, and then came back from a 14 point fourth quarter deficit to pull out a Game 5 win and actually take the lead over the Orlando Magic. This from a team that I have written off as a serious contender due to the absence of Kevin Garnett. And while I still don't see them as a serious title contender (I think the Cavs will easily win the East over either Orlando or Boston), they did exceed my expectations with their recent wins. But I don't see these wins as re-establishing them as contenders with more strength than given credit for. Rather, I see it as exposing the Magic to be a weaker team than their record seems to indicate. Looking at the lineups, I would have expected Orlando to utilize the match-up at power forward (Big Baby Davis for Boston vs either Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis for Orlando) to their advantage - exploit the speed advantage of either Turkoglu or Lewis to get them open shots or easy penetrations against the slow footed Davis. But rather than being able to do that, it has actually been Boston who has taken advantage of the matchups, utilizing Davis' size and strength advantage to get him good shots in the post over his smaller counterparts, including the game winner in Game 4. And while Stan Van Gundy may have enough up his sleeve to pull out wins in Games 6 and 7, I'd have to say the Celtics have overachieved in this year's playoffs given Kevin Garnett's absence. Regardless though, the Cavs may have another sweep to look forward to against whoever faces them in the conference finals.

The other surprise has been Houston's surprising Game 4 win even without Yao Ming. I assumed the Lakers would have easy wins the rest of the series but the Rockets surprised in Game 4. Of course they got blown out in Game 5. But homecourt advantage, which the Rockets had in their miracle of a Game 4, may be enough to pull off a win in Game 6...and as any basketball fan knows, anything can happen in a Game 7.

As for the Mavs, they got away with a Game 4 win to force a Game 5, but that should be it. The Nuggets have just been the better team, even through most of the Game 4 loss, and should bounce back and close this out in Game 5.

2009 Playoffs: Cast Complete

While no series is officially over yet, the way things have gone so far gives a clear indication of who the conference finals cast will be. Out in the West, the recent announcement of Yao Ming's absence for the rest of the playoffs writes off Houston. Granted that the team did start well and the Lakers have not been playing well, they just don't stand a chance without Yao. They may win another game, but this should be over in 5, at most 6, games. In the other Western Conference series, the Nuggets have taken a 3-0 lead over Dallas, so that's also pretty much over with. The Mavs don't have the internal fortitude as a team to be able to come back.

In the East, the Cleveland-Atlanta series was over the moment the Hawks made it to the second round. They never stood a chance, and injuries to three starters (Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams) made the task even more impossible. The Hawks should consider it a successful series if they are able to win one game. In the other Eastern series, Boston-Orlando, the Magic should be able to close out the Celtics. While Eddie House has been big off the bench with 31 and 15 points the last two games, he also cannot sustain that on consistent basis. And the way the Celtics are playing, they need big games from one of the subs every night in order to win over Orlando. The Magic on the other hand, have Courtney Lee back, bolstering their perimeter defense. They should be able to close out the Celtics in 5 or 6 games.

For the conference finals, the Cavs should have a clear path to the finals. Orlando just doesn't have the perimeter defenders to stop LeBron. While Dwight Howard can challenge him at the rim, he will be unchallenged in the perimeter. The Cavs meanwhile have the big bodies to throw at Howard. While none of them can stop Howard one-on-one, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use against him (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace). In the West, the Lakers are favored but the Nuggets could surprise. They have the talent and the depth to compete. If the Lakers struggle in any aspect, the Nuggets could sneak by.

2009 Playoffs: Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have taken a 2-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the playoffs. While Chauncey Billups (12.0 ppg, 7.0 apg, 3.0 spg, 3.0 topg) has outplayed Jason Kidd (9.5 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.0 spg, 5.0 topg) in the series so far, the difference hasn't been decisive. In fact, Billups performance is down from his spectacular first round performance against New Orleans (22.6 ppg, 7.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 topg).

Through the first two games, the difference maker for the Nuggets has been Brazilian center Nene, who has averaged 24.5 ppg throughout the first two games, significantly up from his first round average of 9.0 ppg. Aside from the acquisition of Billups (and perhaps the addition by subtraction of Allen Iverson), the emergence of Nene as an inside force is one of the key factors that led to the Nuggets winning the division and finishing second in the Western Conference. After overcoming testicular cancer in 2007-08 (16 games played, 5.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg), he came back to have his most productive season establishing career highs in points per game (14.6), rebounds per game (7.8), blocks per game (1.3) and field goal percentage (.604; 2nd in the NBA). His emergence gave Denver a dependable low post scorer, which was well complemented by Denver's defensive minded bigs Kenyon Martin and ex-druggie Birdman Chris Andersen. Offensively, his low post offense also complemented the perimeter games of Chauncey Billups and JR Smith, and the slashing game of Carmelo Anthony. The continued productivity of Nene and the other Nuggets big men (Martin: 10.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 1.5 spg in 31.4 mpg; Andersen: 8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg in 23.7 mpg) will be key in determining how far the Nuggets go in the playoffs. Assuming they make it to the conference finals, they will have to contend with Houston's Yao Ming or the Lakers' frontline of 7-0 Andrew Bynum, 7-0 Pao Gasol, and 6-10 Lamar Odom. So far they have proven up to it, specially Nene in the past two games.

2009 Playoffs: Second Round Outlook

The second round of the NBA playoffs starts tomorrow with the second seeded Denver Nuggets taking on sixth seed Dallas. The first round will also officially end tomorrow, with the last pending series coming to a do-or-die ending in the Atlanta-Miami game 7 showdown. This is how I see the second round turning out.

EAST: (1) Cleveland vs (5) Miami
The first part of my projection is that the Heat win game 7 vs the Hawks in Atlanta. That said, I don't think it will really matter who wins the first round series. The winner will end up being beaten by Cleveland in 4 or 5 games. The key to the series will be defending the superstars. I see Miami beating Atlanta because they have no one to guard Dwyane Wade, while none of their stars (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith) has shown up dominant for Atlanta. Miami could surprise if Cleveland can't defend Wade, but the Hawks should be easy pickings should they surprise me and win game 7 vs Miami.

EAST: (2) Boston vs (3) Orlando
Without Kevin Garnett, and even with the benefit of favorable officiating and front office decision making, the Celtics should fall to the Magic in 6. Boston will have to exploit the short handed 2-spot for the Magic, and try to maximize Ray Allen's offense against JJ Redick. If Allen gets going, Orlando may have to turn to using Mickeal Pietrus at the shooting guard spot to defend him, at least until Courtney Lee comes back. Boston may win some games with outstanding shooting, but I don't see them shooting well every game of the series. Conversely, without KG, they don't have anyone who can match up with Howard inside, and if the Magic shooters get going, Dwight should dominate. Hopefully he learned from the Dalembert incident and doesn't end up getting suspended again.

WEST: (1) LA Lakers vs (5) Houston
While the Lakers have struggled, they should still have enough to beat the Rockets in 6 or 7 games. There are a number of intersting match-ups, with the Lakers having the frontcourt depth in Andrew Bynum, Pao Gasol, and Lamar Odom to match defend against Yao Ming, while Houston has two of the best perimeter defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier to try and control Kobe Bryant. The Lakers though have more proven weapons than the Rockets and that should be the edge. Surprise element for Houston would be in case Aaron Brooks and Von Wafer bust out scoring wise.

WEST: (2) Denver vs (6) Dallas
This is a matchup between two offense oriented teams. I'll go with Denver winning this in 5 or 6 games, with the key matchup being at point guard. Both teams seem to match-up well against each other: Dirk Nowitzki and Carmelo Anthony as the primary scorers, Jason Terry and Josh Howard for Dallas and JR Smith, Nene, and Kenyon Martin for Denver as the secondary scorers. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass provide Dallas' inside muscle, which would be offset by Chris Andersen plus Nene and K-Mart. While Jason Kidd can still run a high octane offense, the challenge will be whether he can stop Chauncey Billups. Billups should prove superior to the Kidd-Jose Barea tandem, and that should be enough to swing the series to Denver.

LONGSHOT PREDICTIONS: Cleveland beats Orlando in five games in the East, Lakers beat Denver in six games in the West. Lakers get things together and beat the Cavs in the finals.

2009 Playoffs: Closing Out Round 1

Seven teams have moved forward in the first round of the NBA playoffs, with the sole remaining undecided series being between Miami and Atlanta, with Game 7 coming up. As expected, Houston closed out Portland in Game 6. Orlando surprisingly eliminated the Sixers easily in Game 6 without Dwight Howard, having performed better as a team without him than they did with him. It was a surprisingly easy Game 6 win for the Magic.

In the only other series to reach Game 7 aside from the Miami-Atlanta series, the Celtics managed to "survive" the Bulls. I recall all the talk about the leprechaun in the old Boston Garden, and it seems that this character has now moved into the NBA front office, particularly for this series. My apologies to Celtics fans, but I don't think they deserved to win this series. First of all, the referees choked on their whistles failing to call a flagrant foul on Rondo after his headshot against Brad Miller at the end of Game 5. Rondo got away with whacking Miller on the head, and after watching Miller shoot free throws the rest of the series, I'd have to say that the hit also affected Miller's shooting. Going to the statistics, Miller hit 19 of 24 free throw attempts in the series for 79%. If you take out the two missed shots at the end of Game 5, he connected on 19 of 22 attempts of 86% of his free throws. This is consistent with his regular season accuracy of 82%. For those who will cite pressure, Miller's end game free throw shooting in Game 6 would belie that he was highly susceptible to missing shots at end game. In addition to the Game 5 incident, Rondo yet again got away with a lighter penalty after he swung an elbow at Kirk Hinrich in Game 6. While he was called for a flagrant, he was conveniently not suspended for Game 7. Without these two advantageous calls, the Celtics may have lost Game 5 (admittedly they still could have won it in overtime even if the call was a flagrant foul) or Game 7 (if Rondo was suspended). Regardless, though, the winner of this series will not be material in the playoffs unless Garnett comes back. There isn't much of a chance that the eventual champion would have emerged from this pair.