2009 Playoffs: Musings

The 2009 NBA Playoffs have started, and for some teams such as the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets, it has actually ended. Am capturing some assorted and unassociated thoughts I have on the playoffs to up to this point.

1. Celtics survive Bulls, rather than beat them
I found this thought very much appropriate assuming the Celtics make it out of the first round. Aside from not being much of a contender without KG, the Celtics have pretty much been played even by the Bulls. Throw in the uncalled flagrant foul on Brad Miller that could have given the Bulls Game 5, and the Celtics are actually lucky to even be ahead 3-2. And even then, we still can't say at this point that the Celtics will survive the Bulls.

2. Little guys get away with flagrant fouls on big guys
This was a topic of discussion after Rondo's clothesline of Brad Miller at the end of Game 5. In fairness to the Celtics point guard, this was not an isolated incident, rather was more reflective of how calls generally are made. As the Sporting News' Sean Deveney pointed out, a mid-air loss of balance that usually happens when a smaller guy falls does a lot to help get the flagrant call. The same foul, without the drama of a spectacular fall, just does not get the call. And given the laws of physics, big, heavy, unathletic guys like Brad Miller just don't fall as easily and dramatically as small guys like Rondo.

3. Biggest in-season acquisition: Chauncey Billups
The Denver Nuggets seemed to have an easy time eliminating Chris Paul and the New Orleands Hornets. Tyson Chandler's injury aside, this was pretty much the same Hornets team that was a win away from the Western Conference Finals last year. And except for the Billups for Iverson swap, also the same Nuggets as last year's first round patsy. Conversely, Detroit, last year's Eastern Conference Finalist with Billups, finished the regular season below .500 and were easily swept in the first round by the Cavs.

4. Moving Forward
With the Lakers, Nuggets, Mavs, and Cavs in the second round, that leaves four series still in the balance.
Portland-Houston: I would expect the Rockets to close out the Blazers in Game 6. A Blazers sweep of the last 2 games would be too much of a curse on the Rockets given their recent history and I feel is improbable at this point.
Boston-Chicago: I think the leprechaun has worked his magic this round. The Bulls had their chance to win the series in Game 5, but given Rondo's non flagrant foul, I think the Celtics have enough to pull out a Game 7 win.
Orlando-Philadelphia: Magic in Game 7. It could have been Magic in Game 6, but Howard's suspension torpedoed that. I see the Sixers winning Game 6, but the Magic pull out a Game 7.
Atlanta-Miami: Miami sweeps Games 6 and 7. Wade has not played well the past 2 games and is due to break out. Joe Johnson was due for a breakout game and did so in Game 5. Now it's Wade's turn. The loss of Horford and Marvin Williams will be too much for Atlanta to handle.

2009 Playoffs: Celtics-Bulls

It's probably best that I kick off this blog with this topic, since it was a discussion about Game 2 yesterday that gave me the idea of noting my thoughts in a blog.

Having stolen Game 1 in Boston, and losing Game 2 on a last second shot, Chicago seems to be poised to upset the defending champs in the first round. The main reason for their vulnerability is the absence of Kevin Garnett, who may miss the entire playoffs...which for the Celtics may not extend beyond the first round. My thoughts on the series:

> The Celtics have proven susceptible to an athletic backcourt. The Bulls have exposed the Celtic guards with Derrick Rose's 36 point game 1, and Ben Gordon's 42 point game 2. While Rondo can keep pace with one, that leaves Allen, who in his advanced age is no longer the athlete he was in his prime, struggling to defend the other Chicago guard. Tony Allen would have been a big help here with his athleticism but gives up a lot in terms of basketball smarts.
> Boston's big men are perhaps the least athletic as a group without KG - Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe are not big time athletes and cannot cover up for the deficiencies of the backcourt.
> KG is the key to the Boston defense. He is their defensive captain. Aside from providing the athleticism up front that allows them to compensate for the backcourt, he also provides on-court direction on how they adjust to the offensive play.

Without KG coming back, and ideally at full strength, the Celtics repeat bid is very much in jeopardy. Unlike the Celtics of the 80s, where the bench players were capable of being starters on other teams, there is just no one left to pick up the slack in his absence.

And even if KG is able to come back, both he and Allen have shown a significant drop off in ability vs previous years and may not be able to carry the team through. Best case scenario for them would be reaching the conference finals. Let's see how it pans out.