PBA 2009: Guiao's Goons

This year's version of the Burger King team in the PBA gained headlines when point guard Wynne Arboleda assaulted a fan during a game. That, however, has not been an isolated incident as the team has evolved into the modern version of Robert Jaworski's Ginebra teams of the 80s and 90s. Coach Yeng Guiao has Burger King playing rough ball that borders, or perhaps has crossed the border, into dirty play. And for teams that do play that way, they only do so if they have the blessing, if not the direction to do so from the coach. While it is possible for individual players to be dirty players, a team will not gain that reputation if it is not by design. Just like the Jaworski's Ginebra teams, the dirty play is not limited to one player, but rather is the way the team plays in general. Jaworski had Rudy Distrito, Joey Loyzaga, Dante Gonzalgo, as well as himself leading the mayhem. Guiao relies on (or relied on) Arboleda, Mark Yee, and Beau Belga. The rest of the players, while not being dirty players, play tough ball and would be more than willing to give a hard foul to avoid an easy basket by the opponents.

At this point, Burger King has the coaching philosophy (Guiao) and the goons to try to be Jaworski's Ginebra of modern times. Unfortunately though, they have not yet achieved the popularity nor the basketball success (championships) of the team they are mirroring. Let's wait and see if they can be a champion team playing tough ball, or if they are merely Guiao's Goons who inflict pain but can't win.

2009 UAAP: Championship Goes Game 3

Since the second Ateneo-La Salle game, there hasn't been much to write about in the UAAP basketball wise. Ateneo struggled in some games but continued to win, though they didn't have any noteworthy victory other than the last game against FEU. FEU on the other hand, went downhill after that, with the game fixing controversy involving Barroca and his eventual exile from the team. UE, while performing well, has done so quietly, with the only standout victory being their second round win over FEU. It was pretty much a dull second round on the court, with the most significant event being the Barroca situation. And after Ateneo won Game 1, it seemed that the season would end uneventfully.

Game 2, however, changed all that. I have to admit I haven't thought much of coach Lawrence Chongson of UE, even suspecting that the real brains behind the team was this bald assistant coach who seemed to do most of the thinking in the UE games that I saw. Today, however, Chongson earned my respect. Needing to shake things up, he made a coaching call, and the gamble worked for him. He earned my respect (1) by the strategy he developed, and (2) by having the guts to actually go ahead and execute a plan that would surely have drawn criticism if he failed. He also earned points for sportsmanship, when, with the game decided and the seconds ticking off, he instructed Paul Zamar not to take a shot anymore since the game was practically over. Zamar, however, took an uncontested 3 that went in and gave UE a 20 point lead. I saw Chongson apologize to Ateneo's Norman Black, and after that, sought out Zamar and told him off for taking the shot. For those who may ask why this is noteworthy, etiquette in this situation is that the offensive team, with the game wrapped up and the opponent no longer playing any defense, is no longer expected to shoot, but rather dribble out the clock.

As for the game, UE entered the game knowing it could not beat Ateneo with their regular game plan, and with their regular rotation. They also needed to break the tough defense of Ateneo, which was predominantly man-to-man, relying on good rotation and help defense. This is my assessment of Coach Chongson's strategy based on how I saw it unfold:

DEFENSE: Collapse on Al Husseini and dare Ateneo to hit the three. With the exception of Jai Reyes and Eman Monfort, UE seemed to even back off on the other Ateneo perimeter players, daring them to take the long ball. While this strategy would probably have been criticized if the threes were falling, the inability of Ateneo's other perimeter players to hit from outside allowed UE to stay in their tightly packed zone. Austria, Buenafe, Salamat, and Long all struggled from long distance.

OFFENSE: While they dared Ateneo to take the three pointer, they also utilized this as a weapon on offense, attacking Ateneo's bigs with perimeter shots. UE started with Elmer Espiritu and Val Acuna at center and power forward. Espiritu, with a slower Al Husseini on him, took advantage and hit a couple of three point shots early in the game. With Al Husseini and Baclao forced to extend their defense against the perimeter attack of UE, this opened up the inside for the slashing of Paul Lee, either for his own points or drop passes to his teammates. This has been a staple of UE's offense, but something they were not able to display in Game 1. A side effect of this strategy was also having UE's bigger and more athletic guards and wingmen on the inside against the smaller Ateneo guards and wingmen. Chongson knew that Ateneo's frontline was formidable, and decided to attack the weaker link - the guards. Ateneo's perimeter players were outshot from three by UE's bigmen, and outrebounded inside by their UE counterparts.

My take on this is UE won Game 2 because of their coach, or perhaps their coaching staff. They knew they needed to shake things up in terms of the gameplan, and they did so successfully. They key to Game 3 will be outside shooting - by the perimeter players of Ateneo and by the big men of UE.

2009 UAAP: UAAP Selection

With the UAAP season nearing the end of its regular season schedule, Ateneo, FEU, and UE are emerging as the early entries into the Final Four, with UST and DLSU competing for the final slot while trying to hold off upstarts UP and Adamson. But with the Ateneo-Lasalle games over, and the only big game left being the Ateneo-FEU game, there is not much excitement over the remaining games, save for the possibility of an upset being pulled off by one of the lesser teams.

Not having a game to focus on, I decided to try my luck at forming a UAAP selection. This would be a team that would be formed to compete, so I considered not just how good the players performed this year, but how they form part of the overall makeup of the team. This is what I came up with.

CENTER: Rabeh Al Husseini & Aldrich Ramos. This gives you a classic offense-defense tandem, with Al Husseini being your primary scorer and Ramos your defensive anchor.

POWER FORWARD: Nonoy Baclao & Elmer Espiritu. Both of these players provide solid defense and shotblocking. Both players also give them added versatility, with Baclao functioning as the team's third center behind Rabeh and Ramos, while Espiritu having the ability to play some minutes at small forward if they go with a big lineup.

SMALL FORWARD: Dylan Ababou, Khasim Mirza, & Martin Reyes. While Ababou played at the power forward spot for UST, his natural position is at the small forward spot. Both he and Mirza can also slide over to the power forward spot if the team wants to go with a smaller but faster lineup. Even though he may not be considered among the top 12 players of the UAAP, I included Martin Reyes because the team lacks outside shooting. He will serve as the 12th man but used in specialty situations or whenever the team needs better shooting.

OFF GUARD: Paul Lee & JR Cawaling. Lee is one of the best athletes in the league, and his ability to create shots for teammates exceeds most of the league's point guards. His athleticism allows him to be a good defender. Cawaling brings height and outside shooting to the backcourt. He also plays good defense and can slide over to small forward when necessary.

POINT GUARD: Andy Barroca, RR Garcia & Lester Alvarez. Barroca played mostly at the off guard spot to create room for Garcia. They will still see minutes together, as Barroca is the most likely of the point guards to swing over to the shooting guard spot. Alvarez gives the team additional quickness and ability to push the ball and penetrate.

Please note, however, that this team is not intended to be composed of the 12 best players in the UAAP. Composition was based on the team being able to compete. Personal biases that were factored in were defense and having the flexibility of multiple combinations.

2009 UAAP: Ateneo-LaSalle 2

One week after a nail-biting finish in Game 1 of the 2009 version of the Ateneo-LaSalle rivalry, Ateneo decided it did not want to go through the same suspense and finished off LaSalle as early as the first quarter. They started off 8-0, ended the first quarter leading 17-11, and were up by 17 points at the half.

Game 1 featured LaSalle at its best and Ateneo nearly at its worst (not worse than their showing against UP of course), while the situation was reversed in Game 2, resulting in Ateneo's blowout victory.

GAME SUMMARY: No disrespect to DLSU but this game was a true indicator of the talent disparity of the 2 teams. In Game 1, DLSU's coaching staff outcoached their Ateneo counterparts to effectively minimize the talent gap. In this game, however, DLSU allowed Ateneo to play to its strengths, resulting in the relatively easy victory. DLSU's best chance to win would have been to shake things up and force Ateneo away from its usual game. They did this in Game 1, but failed to do so in Game 2.

Ateneo Highlights: Defense: Ateneo's defense was on track from the start of the game. Even Al Husseini played uncharacteristically aggressive defense, blocking shots and showing up and challenging shots in the paint. Long starting in place of Buenafe gives the team better speed and improves the overall defensive makeup of the team. They were also able to sustain their defensive intensity for practically the entire game and did not allow DLSU to mount any significant runs. Even when their offense struggled in the 3rd quarter, DLSU was not able to mount a serious challenge because their defense held up. Even when DLSU was able to force turnovers, the ADMU defense prevented these from being turned into points.

Al Husseini Focused: Rabeh asserted himself inside. Initially he still played soft against Adrada, becoming tentative when the DLSU rookie came into the game. After Black took him out, he came back focused and just played his game. Given his stature in the league, he should not be afraid to get blocked and just keep attacking the defense. After being stymied by the different looks he was getting defensively, he finally appears to be focused and has had monster games the last 2 times out, with 30 points against UE and 26 against DLSU.

DLSU Highlights: Uhhhmmm...PJ Barua?: It is hard to find anything noteworthy in DLSU's game today. They were taken out of the game early and were not able to get back. The possible opportunity here is that PJ Barua shot well, at least compared to how he's been playing all year. The easy shots he got in this game might allow him to break out of his shooting slump.

DLSU Lowlight: I just had to make special mention of Bader Malabes. He has had his moments contributing to the DLSU program in previous years, but has always come up short in Ateneo-DLSU games. He has been having a horrible year this season, and this game just might have been his worst one this year. He took bad shots, missed even good shots horribly, piled up turnovers instead of assists, and was a hole on defense. DLSU might be better off taking their chances with Marata and bench Malabes.

Final Say: DLSU failed to come up with any game-changing strategy for game 2. Perhaps they had one, but the players were not able to execute it. Consequently, it boiled down to a player's game, with Ateneo's superior talent in this year's lineup just being too much for DLSU to match up with. They were unable to stop Ateneo's offense, and were also not able to attack the defense the way they did most of game 1.

2009 UAAP: Ateneo-LaSalle 2 Preview

In a surprising scheduling move by the UAAP, the second Ateneo-LaSalle matchup will take place only a week after the first one. That means that the two teams have only a week to revisit their strategies and game plans and make the necessary adjustments. Making things more challenging is that both Ateneo and LaSalle also have games on Thursday against separate opponents. Ateneo faces UE, while LaSalle takes on Adamson. Assuming both teams prepare for their Thursday opponents first, that leaves 3 days for the blue and green to plan against each other.

DLSU KEYS TO VICTORY:
> Interior Defense. After a hot start, Al Husseini was more or less contained for the balance of the game until his injury in the 4th quarter. DLSU though will have to defend the interior, not just Rabeh. After the injury, the interior defense suddenly disappeared, giving up offensive rebounds and inside points to Baclao and Salva.
> Offensive Tempo: DLSU's offensive success was due to their pushing the tempo, specially in the first half. They cannot afford to let Ateneo's defense set up, specially with their shooters being erratic. DLSU will have to push the pace and keep attacking before Ateneo's defense can set up. Otherwise, they will have to hope that their three point shooters will get hot. Unlike last year, DLSU has no deadeye shooter this year, with Marata being the only candidate. The rest - Malabes, Barua, Bagatsing, Mangahas are wildly inconsistent.
> Go-to Guy: DLSU has not had a clear go-to guy all season. Someone needs to step up. Webb, despite all the points he scored, is not a go-to guy because his points come from motion and lose ball recoveries. Mangahas was their best bet for a crunch time go to guy this year, but so far he has been a bust in that role.

ATENEO KEYS TO VICTORY:
> Defense: So far this year it has been Ateneo's defense that has been their greatest weapon. In the games against Adamson and NU, they were able to offset poor offensive games with good defense. Even in last Sunday's game, things started going Ateneo's way when their defense was finally able to dig in, and this eventually allowed them to dictate the tempo. Rabeh's injury was a blessing in disguise as far as this was concerned, as the tandem of Baclao and Salva gave them enough speed to defend against the smaller but quicker DLSU lineup. Early in the game, Ateneo's "big" lineup with Al Husseini, Baclao, and Buenafe proved too slow against DLSU's smaller but faster lineup. Ateneo played its best with Baclao, Salva, Austria, Salamat and Monfort/Reyes, which not coincidentally featured more speed and defense than their starting five.
> Attack Inside: Ateneo was unable to utilize its size advantage during last Sunday's game. DLSU successfully turned the mismatch at center into an advantage by playing against Al Husseini's lack of speed. Rabeh has the strength to manhandle the DLSU big men inside the paint in battling for position. He should be aggressive in getting good position and sealing his man as well as fighting for the offensive boards. This holds true for the other Ateneo big men. While they don't have Al Husseini's offensive game, they can be just as aggressive getting good position for the offensive boards against a relatively small DLSU team. Even if they are not able to score often early, this type of game will eventually wear down DLSU's limited interior strength.

Last Sunday, DLSU's speed successfully negated Ateneo's size advantage, forcing the Blue Eagles to adjust and play with a smaller, faster lineup to matchup defensively. In the end it was still Ateneo's big men, Baclao and Salva, who asserted their advantage on the boards, and teamed up with Salamat for the end game punch. This Sunday, will Ateneo be able to assert its inside strength early, and force DLSU in turn to play with a bigger albeit slower lineup just to match up? We shall see...

2009 UAAP: Ateneo - LaSalle 1

The NBA offseason has slowed down with most of the big name signees off the market. The economic situation in the US has likewise made it quite boring in terms of trades and other player movements. That said, let me shift attention first to our local UAAP league, which is heating up with the first Ateneo-LaSalle showdown of the season.

Game Summary: Hats off to the DLSU coaching staff. They outdid their Ateneo counterparts, particularly in the first half and even up to midway through the 4th quarter. Then talent and experience caught up, allowing Ateneo to hit clutch baskets and make key defensive stops. DLSU won off the court, ADMU won on it.

DLSU Highlights: Tall Point Guards. Coach Franz has turned the weakness at point guard into an advantage. Without a true quality playmaker, Franz has resorted to mismatches playing swingmen Bader Malabes and Hyram Bagatsing at the point, and taking advantage of their size to post up the smaller defenders. While it has not worked particularly well for Malabes (who continues to be an Ateneo asset in a DLSU uniform), Bagatsing successfully parlayed the mismatch into opportunistic points not just in today's game but even in against UST.

Speed. DLSU also took advantage of their smaller lineup, utilizing speed as an advantage to offset Ateneo's size advantage. This was particularly true in the first half as the smaller line up of La Salle proved too fast for Ateneo's defense, resulting in numerous uncontested baskets particularly by Webb.

Center Rotation. Without a clear cut starting center, and facing the reigning MVP in Rabeh Al Husseini, DLSU employed different looks on defense. Starter Ferdinand was the more traditional center, using his body to bang Al Husseini. Rookie Andrade meanwhile, who was the most successful, offset the size and strength of Al Husseini with his agility, athleticism, and long arms to both block shots and steal the ball from Rabeh. He was the most successful, albeit his effectiveness tailed off late in the 4th. Mendoza on the other hand attacked Rabeh on offense, scoring off putbacks and driving moves from outside.

Ateneo Highlights: Composure. This game was won by the players on the court. Clutch plays by Baclao, Salva, and Salamat were the keys to the victory in the endgame and overtime. Jai Reyes and Bacon Austria were also noteworthy.

Offensive Rebounds. Nearing the end of regulation and in overtime, Ateneo big men Baclao and Salva asserted themselves on the boards with key tip ins and follow ups. Ironically, the frontline of Baclao and Salva did more damage than when Baclao was with Rabeh. Austria also bears mention being in the mix for a couple of key offensive boards.

Defense. Ultimately defense won the game for Ateneo. The absence or ineffectiveness of their defense was actually what gave LaSalle the lead. But after giving up 40 points in the first half, LaSalle only scored 10 in the 3rd and only had 11 in the fourth before the back to back threes by Bringas and Bagatsing in the last 24 seconds. Salamat and Baclao were the key to the Ateneo defense particularly during the 4th quarter comeback.

Joshua Webb. Yes, I mean Webb the DLSU player. Early in the game, he was the reason for the DLSU lead. Unfortunately, his weakness - intelligence - came out in the end. First were a couple of layups that he blew because he was showboating. But most critical was perhaps the scuffle that he started by kicking Austria. As the commentators mentioned, that may have been the turning point of the game. Instead of taking the foul and DLSU having possession (or even free throws if Ateneo was in penalty), the scuffle resulted in 2 free throws for Ateneo PLUS ball possession. I personally think Webb has the physical skills and athleticism to be DLSU's star player, but his inability to play smart (or bluntly, the fact that he is a stupid player in terms of basketball IQ) has held him back.

Final Say: For Ateneo, this is a game that individual players could be proud of, namely Baclao, Salamat, and Salva. As a team, however, they had no business being taken to overtime by DLSU. For DLSU, this was a great game for them as a team. As an individual though, Webb could have made this the game of his life. It probably still might be, but more of the worst game of his life rather than the best.

2009 Offseason: Initial Roster Moves

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Rotation Outlook:
C - Shaquille O'Neal/ Zydrunas Ilgauskas / Varejao
PF - Anderson Varejao/ Jamario Moon
SF - Lebron James/ Moon / Parker
PG - Mo Williams/ West
OG - Delonte West/ Parker
Most of the offseason attention in Cleveland focused on the acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal, but the key to their success will be the performance of their PF position. Varejao can team with either Shaq or Z, while also serving as a 3rd string center in a big lineup, or they can go small with Shaq or Z or even Varejao at center, with Moon and LBJ at the forward slots. While Moon will be abused by the bigger PFs, the presence of Shaq should still allow him to play certain matchups at the 4 spot and provide the agility and athleticism to offset the lack of footspeed at center.

BOSTON CELTICS
Rotation Outlook:
C - Kendrick Perkins/ Rasheed Wallace / Davis
PF - Kevin Garnett/ Wallace / Glen Davis
SF - Paul Pierce/ Marquis Daniels
PG - Rajon Rondo/ Eddie House / Daniels
OG - Ray Allen/ House / Daniels
Right now the Celtics frontcourt buildup is ahead of their backcourt. They have good depth at the power slots being able to go 4-deep with Garnett, Wallace, Perkins, and Davis, and a quality 12th man in Scalabrine. Daniels will be an adequate backup at the wing positions, with House adding depth with his ability to play the offguard spot. They are still thin at the point, with House and Daniels better suited at the other guard, though capable of playing limited minutes at point. The possible x-factor here could be the development of the previous two draft picks - Gabe Pruitt and JR Giddens as possible back-ups at the point. If they have not developed, the Celtics may need to sign a quality back up point guard.

ORLANDO MAGIC
Rotation Outlook:
C - Dwight Howard / Marcin Gortat
PF - Brandon Bass / Ryan Anderson / Gortat
SF - Rashard Lewis / Mickeal Pietrus
PG - Jameer Nelson / Anthony Johnson
OG - Vince Carter / Pietrus / JJ Redick
I feel the Magic have made the biggest change, morphing into a "conventional" lineup. Part of last year's success, specially in the playoffs, was due to the mismatches created by having 2 small forwards at the same time in Turkoglu and Lewis. This year, they will be parading a conventional look, with the power forward spot being manned by Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson. While Anderson is a shooter with range, he is still a good shooting power forward, as compared to a true small forward playing the power slot in Turkoglu/Lewis. The possible downside here is that it allows the opposing team to go with 2 big men, providing more help against Howard. That said, this is a deeper team than last year, going 2 deep at all positions. Whether they are more effective remains to be seen.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Rotation Outlook:
C - Antonio McDyess / Theo Ratliff / Duncan
PF - Tim Duncan / DeJuan Blair / Matt Bonner
SF - Richard Jefferson / Michael Finley
PG - Tony Parker / George Hill
OG - Manu Ginobilli / Roger Mason
The Spurs have rebuilt themselves as a contender to make one last push during the Tim Duncan era. Free agent signees McDyess and Ratliff, plus possibly a return by now free agent Oberto provide warm bodies for the center spot to allow Duncan to play at power forward. Should Blair emerge and prove to be a lottery level talent, this may require Duncan to play more minutes at center to open up the power forward slot for Blair. Regardless, the majority of the minutes should go to Duncan and McDyess, with depth provided by Ratliff, Blair, and Matt Bonner. The Spurs are also deep at the wings, with Jefferson and Ginobilli playing most of the minutes and quality reserves Finley and Mason having to make do with what is left over. Popovich can give his wings a few extra minutes by giving Mason some minutes at the point. Hill and Mason should be adequate as backups to Parker.

LA LAKERS
Rotation Outlook:
C - Andrew Bynum / Gasol / Josh Powell
PF - Pau Gasol / Lamar Odom / Powell
SF - Ron Artest / Luke Walton / Odom
PG - Derek Fisher / Jordan Farmar / Shannon Brown
OG - Kobe Bryant / Sasha Vujacic / Brown
Presuming the Lakers re-sign Lamar Odom, they will be bringing back their title team intact except for the upgrade at SF with the signing of Artest. Further improvements could be in the form of another back-up at center and an upgrade at point guard. As is, however, they appear to be strong contenders to repeat.

2009 Offseason: Free Agent Signings

Free agency officially started last July 1, and already many of the big name free agents seem to be off the market even before they can officially sign contracts. Based on deals closed up to this point, the pre-season favorites for 2009-10 season would be the following:

LA LAKERS: Defending champions may start this year with a stronger lineup. There seems to be strong indications that Lamar Odom will be re-signed, and while they lost Ariza, they actually upgraded the position by getting back Ron Artest for the same money.

BOSTON: The signing of Rasheed Wallace already makes this a good offseason for Boston and coupled with the return to health of Garnett makes them an instant contender. Signing Grant Hill and re-signing Glen Davis would make them top seeds in the East.

SAN ANTONIO: No free agent moves yet, but the acquisition of Richard Jefferson gives them a "big 4" to rival Boston's. Should Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto return via free agency and/or they succeed in luring Antonio McDyess, they should be the Lakers top challenger in the West.

CLEVELAND: While they haven't done much this offseason outside of the Shaq trade, the Cavs are better off than the Magic which I think regressed, at least as of this point. Trading for Carter would have been a great move...if they didn't lose Turkoglu. Carter was an upgrade over Courtney Lee, but is not necessarily so against Hedo. Unless the Magic have some more moves planned (i.e. acquiring Shawn Marion), I think the Cavs have moved ahead. On the Cavs side, they still need to shore up their power forward spot. Resigning Varejao is the default move, but if they can get Marion, even at the expense of Varejao, that would be a better move.

As for the other teams, while they have made major free agent moves, none of these would make them contenders:

DETROIT: Despite signing Villanueva and Gordon, they are still in rebuilding mode. Interesting development would be where Rip Hamilton ends up being traded to. Prince could also go. Moving these two to a contender could tilt the balance towards a team.

TORONTO: Even if they sign Hedo, they are still closer to the lottery than they are to contending.

2009 Offseason: Spurs Reloading

Among the trades that took place right before the draft was the Bucks trading Richard Jefferson to San Antonio for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto. Oberto was subsequently traded to the Pistons for Amir Johnson. Expectations are that Oberto will be waived by the Pistons, and Bowen by the Bucks, after which they will find themselves back in San Antonio. Add to this the drafting of potential lottery pick DeJuan Blair in the second round and it looks like the Spurs have reloaded. This is how their lineup looks at this point (including the anticipated return of Oberto and Bowen):

Starters:
C - Fabricio Oberto
PF - Tim Duncan
SF - Richard Jefferson
PG - Tony Parker
OG - Michael Finley

Bench:

6th Man - Manu Ginobilli
PF - Drew Gooden
SF - Bruce Bowen
PG - George Hill
PG/OG - Roger Mason
SF - Ime Udoka
PF/C - Matt Bonner
PF - Dejuan Blair

This is a pretty deep lineup, with quality reserves at all positions. It should also be sufficient to allow the team to limit the minutes of Duncan and Ginobilli, and ride Parker and Jefferson during the regular season. Ideally they would get another C/PF who can start alongside Duncan (Gooden, Oberto, Bonner are all reserves; Blair may blossom into a starter caliber PF if he lives up to the hype). All in all though, it seems that the Spurs have successfully reloaded.

2009 Season: Final Ratings

Having conluded the season with the Lakers victory over the Magic, and before the roster shuffles go full swing in preparation for the 2009-10 season, it might be good to take one last look at the season that was and check out how the teams performed. I initially plan to just review the season for the key teams but let's see how far we can take it.

RATING SCALE: Simply Meets Expectations, Does Not Meet Expectations, Exceeds Expectations

1. LA LAKERS - Meets Expectations
Despite having won the title, I feel that the Lakers just met expectations. Anything less than a championship for them this year would have been a disappointment. Even with the injury to Andrew Bynum and his subpar play in the playoffs, they still had the most balanced lineup with the best chance of winning. Their experience showed in the playoffs as they won the games they had to win.

2. ORLANDO MAGIC - Exceeds Expectations
While they did not win, and really did not play like a championship team in the finals, you have to admit that no one expected them to win the East. Everyone was talking about either the Cavs or the Celtics, at least before Garnett's injury. Just making the finals was good enough for them this year. Next year, however, would be a different story.

3. DENVER NUGGETS - Exceeds Expectations
No one expected the pre-season Nuggets to contend for the championship. They were not even a lock for the playoffs, specially after they dumped Marcus Camby in an effort to trim salaries. And while Nene's emergence as a center was unexpected and key to the team's success, it was the Billups-Iverson trade that upgraded them from a fringe playoff team to a contender. And even with Billups, they were not expected to make it all the way to the conference finals, let alone give the Lakers a serious challenge. It was because of the Nuggets' toughness that the Lakers were able to fine tune their game and lineup on the way to the title.

4. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - Does Not Meet Expectations
The 2008-09 Cavaliers proved to be the modern version of the 90s Portland Trailblazers team - dominant regular season performance but playoff flameouts. Hopefully they can correct it over the offseason. What the playoffs showed was that Cleveland was more of a one man show than the stats indicated, since their other supporting players couldn't perform when it counted. It also exposed Mike Brown as a coach who won only because of Lebron. His inability to adjust during the Magic series was a critical flaw that cost the Cavs their season.

5. BOSTON CELTICS - Meets Expectations
Even though they were the defending champions, I did not see them as the strongest team coming in to this season. Without KG, the Celtics were no longer a title contender and would have been a marginal playoff team. Despite this, however, they got past the Bulls in the first round and stretched the Magic to 7 games.

6. HOUSTON ROCKETS - Meets Expectations
I was tempted to say they exceeded expectations based on their playoff performance without Yao and T-Mac, but this was offset by a regular season where they did not stand out. If you consider them as a team with T-Mac, they performed below expecations, but if you consider them as a team without T-Mac, they exceeded it. They are somewhere in between, hence they met expecations.

7. ATLANTA HAWKS - Meets Expectations
As expected, they improved on their performance last year, where the goal was to just make the playoffs. They managed to get home court advantage this year, took care of business in the first round agains the Heat, and consequently were taken care of in the second round. Nothing to crow about in terms of achievements, but also did enough to meet the expectations.

8. DALLAS MAVERICKS - Meets Expectations
If you consider the Mavs as an elite team, then the rating would be does not meet expectations. From my end, however, I see them as a regular season team which just doesn't have enough to be taken seriously as a playoff contender. From that perspective, they did just enough to get into the playoffs. In the first round, they faced a team that had a better record and rank, but whose team on the floor was not as good as theirs given the injuries. They beat what was a weaker team in the first round and then were booted out without much difficulty by the Nuggets in the second round.

2009 Playoffs: Filipino Commentators

The past couple of games of the finals have been covered by a Filipino team of Mico Halili as the play by play guy and Andy Jao as the analyst. While Mico has been fine as the play by play guy, Dr. J has been a disappointment as an analyst He does not bring anything to the table, basically just repeating what happened in the play by play. I did not see any real analysis, or perhaps more accurately, no analysis with any depth. He seemed to have trouble just catching up with the play by play and understanding what was going on, and any analysis he did was shallow if not irrelevant. They could have achieved the same results by just having Mico do the play by play and let the audience analyze on its own, since that's what we ended up doing anyway given the quality of the analysis. It was not so much as the analysis being wrong, but it tackled items that the viewers could assess on their own. There was nothing in-depth or outside what we could see on the screen.

In fairness, this may be because our broadcast team does not have the familiarity with the NBA nor the access to the teams. How would they know if a particular play was something that was developed specifically for the series or that a particular player was a secret weapon against this particular opponent.

All in all though, I would have preferred to listen to the NBA broadcast team, since they have the familiarity and the inside stories. They have more authoritative information, and bottom line, give more to me as the audience. I don't see any reason why it has to be telecast by Filipinos, unless they do the telecast in the local language to reach those who can't understand english. Unfortunately they don't give you the option on TV to watch it on the US broadcast. Too bad.

2009 Playoffs: Lakers Well On Their Way

It's over - series in 5 or 6 games to the Lakers. The Magic had their opportunities but they blew it. At least they got their first (and perhaps only) victory in a finals game, so they at least accomplished something.

I'd have to say that the Lakers pulled it out with talent and championship poise. While I was personally rooting for the Magic (and owe someone lunch because of it), it was because they were the underdogs. The Lakers have the stronger team, but the Magic seemed to have the best chance of an upset. Unfortunately, they blew it, giving away games 2 and 4 which they should have won. In the end, the difference not just in this series but in the whole playoffs was that the Lakers won when they had to. They won the games they should win. The games they controlled early, they did not give up. That's what experience and championship poise can do. The Magic, while winning games they should not have, also kept losing games that they should have won. Unfortunately, in basketball, there is no such thing as a moral victory - a win is a win, a loss is a loss. And at this point, the Lakers have won and the Magic have lost.

2009 Playoffs: Lakers-Magic Finals

With matching game 6 blowout victories, the Lakers and Magic have set a date with each other in the NBA Finals. Both series started out with very close games, with 7 points separating the winners and losers combined in the first four games, but ironically both also ended with blowouts in game 6.

Coming from the series against the Celtics, I didn't think the Magic had any chance against Cleveland. I had expected them to use their perimeter playing abilities to force the Celtics into mismatches, exploiting the speed and outside shooting of a mobile 4-man against Boston's slower frontliners. In other words, I thought they would use the same game plan against Boston that they did in the regular season and against Cleveland. Having seen them struggle against the likes of marginal talents such as Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine, I didn't expect the Magic to have much of a chance against a better Cleveland team. But surprise, surprise - they were keeping the perimeter game under wraps for the Conference Finals. Consequently, they beat a better Cleveland team in 6 games, after needing the entire 7 games to get rid of a much weaker Boston team. And while I still can't understand why they didn't play this way against Boston, they did so against Cleveland are now in the Finals because of it.

Out West, the Lakers closed out the Nuggets with a Game 6 blowout that was not indicative of how close the series was. Denver proved to be a tough match for Boston, and if they can keep the team together next year if not improve it, they will be a contender again. With the series tied after 4 games, it was again Game 5 that decided the series. The Lakers though will still have to address the subpar play of Andrew Bynum and their inconsistent point guard play.

The Finals will be an interesting match up. Orlando's game plan will be tested, as there are mismatches on both ends. The Magic will try to force the Lakers big men to chase them on the perimeter, primarily Pao Gasol when Andrew Bynum plays Howard, and Lamar Odom, when Gasol moves to the 5 spot. On the Lakers side, Gasol and/or Odom are much better offensive players than Cleveland's Anderson Varejao and will look to return the favor by posting up their perimeter oriented defenders Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu. The match-up at power forward could be the key here, whether Orlando's perimeter offense will force the Lakers to go with a smaller line up, or whether the Lakers can do enough damage offensively to force the Magic to go with a second big man/post player for defensive purposes.

MATCH-UPS:

CENTER: Dwight Howard vs Andrew Bynum/Pao Gasol. While Howard is the best player at this position, the Lakers do have two talented athletic defenders who also have a post game to force Howard to guard his own man and possibly help get him in foul trouble. If Howard does get in foul trouble, either Bynum or Gasol should have a field day against back-up Marcin Gortat, who while a capable back-up, will end up facing starter level talent in either Bynum or Gasol.

POWER FORWARD: Rashard Lewis vs Pao Gasol/Lamar Odom. Lewis will have to be at his best offensively and force the Lakers to chase him out on the perimeter. Unlike the offensively impotent Cleveland bigs, the Lakers can attack him on the defensive end as well by posting him up. It will be interesting to see who is able to stop the other. Odom provides the Lakers with a better perimeter defender, given his ability to also play small forward, but he is also not as adept in the post offensively as Gasol.

SMALL FORWARD: Hedo Turkoglu vs Trevor Ariza. Another key to the series will be how well Ariza can defend against Turkoglu. At 6-8, he is nearly as tall as Hedo, and his superior athleticism may create problems with the slower Turkoglu. The Magic should also not take Ariza for granted on offense, as he has been hitting outside shots throughout the playoffs. He is currently hitting .558 from the field including .500 from three (30/60 from three in 18 games so far). He has had some injury problems in the playoffs and that may become a factor as the series goes forward.

SHOOTING GUARD: Courtney Lee/Mickeal Pietrus vs Kobe Bryant. As with the Denver series, the only question here is how well the Magic defenders can hold down Kobe. They can't really stop him, but they can give him enough trouble and make him work hard enough for his points that fatigue becomes a factor. Offensively, while they will not outscore Kobe, the Lakers have to make sure they don't let Lee or Pietrus get hot from the perimeter.

POINT GUARD: Rafer Alston vs Derek Fisher. While a relatively low key match-up, an explosion by either one of these could swing the balance of the series. Alston has proven capable of producing big games offensively, while Fisher has a history of hitting clutch shots. If any of these two are in the headlines of the game recaps, that would be a big plus for their team.

BENCH: Pietrus/Marcin Gortat/Anthony Johnson vs Odom/Luke Walton/Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown. Aside from Pietrus and Odom, key relievers will be Gortat given Howard's penchant to get into foul trouble, and Walton's ability to defend Lewis/Turkoglu when he comes in for Ariza. I think both coaches would be happy if their benches can break even when on the court and are relying primarily on the starters to make the difference.

2009 Playoffs: Cavaliers Choke

After a dominant regular season and an unbeaten first two rounds of the playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers have come crashing back down to earth. They are down 3-1 to the Orlando Magic, who would have swept the series by now if not for Lebron's game winning lucky shot at the end of Game 2, a game the Cavaliers did not deserve to win based on how they played.

The Magic, on the other hand, are using their perimeter strength to create mismatches against the bigger but slower Cavs. This is actually how they played the regular season, forcing power forwards of their opposing teams to have to guard either Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu out on the perimeter. In Game 4, Cleveland actually adjusted its rotation, with their big men Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace playing a combined 79 out of a maximum of 265 minutes (or 30% of total minutes) as compared to an average of 89 out of 240 minutes (37% of total minutes) in games 1-3. Perimeter reserves Daniel Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak, who played a combined 19 minutes in games 1-3, each played more than 20 minutes in game 4, as the Cavs went with Lebron at the 4 spot in an effort to match up better with the Magic's perimeter players.

In fairness to Lebron, he has actually performed at a higher level in the conference finals as compared to the regular season and first two rounds. Unfortunately for him, his teammates have become more dependent on him, as they have failed to step up. Mo Williams, while averaging more points in this series (17.3 ppg vs 14.8 ppg), has shot a very poor 32% from the field as compared to 44% in the first two rounds. His backcourt partner, Delonte West, is also down from 48% to 43%. In terms of total contribution to the team, James is scoring 41% of the Cavs output in the conference finals, as compared to 35% in their first 8 games, which were all wins.

At this point, the Cavs need a miracle to pull out the series, given that teams that have taken a 3-1 lead went on to win 182 out of 190 playoff series since 1947, or 95% of the time. In order to even have a shot at the 5%, the Cavs need James' supporting cast to step up and contribute more.

Postscript: Orlando is playing the way I expected them to play against the Celtics. In that series, however, they failed to do so, being unable to capitalize on the speed and agility of Lewis and Turkoglu to force the Celtics big men to chase them on the perimeter. I felt that shortcoming was the reason that series went all the way to Game 7, and it seems that they are now exploiting that to end the Cavs series quicker.

2009 Playoffs: Conference Finals Nailbiters

The Lakers 6 point margin of victory in Game 3 was nearly the total combined winning margin for the first four conference finals games. Both games of the Cleveland-Orlando series were decided by 1 point, while in the LA-Denver series, the Lakers won game 1 by 2 points and the Nuggets won game 2 by 3 points. That's a total of 7 points separating the teams in 4 games, or an average winning margin of only 1.75 points. Game 3, in fact, has been the only game where the final shot/play was not a potential game winner.

As far as the teams are concerned, I'd have to say that Cleveland has been a disappointment, getting off to fast starts but unable to keep the lead. They've choked big time in both 4th quarters, and the Magic have shown more end game poise. Luckily for them Lebron saved them in game 2, but that was also a game the Cavs deserved to lose based on their performance. They have not provided enough support to Lebron, who tired himself out in game 1 and nearly lost game 2 with his travelling violation. The Cavs offense has become too predictable, with Lebron running nearly every play either as the scorer/finisher or the passer. Mo Williams and Delonte West will have to take their turn running the offense, and they should also go in the post to Zydrunas Ilgauskas everytime Dwight Howard sits. Orlando, meanwhile, has played the game I felt they should have played against Boston- utilizing the quickness of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to create a mismatch away from the ring against the slower 4-man that Cleveland will play (either Anderson Varejao or Joe Smith). This has been so effective that Cleveland actually had to adjust, going small with Lebron at 4 and Sasha Pavlovic at 3. Game 3 will be key - if the Cavs still play the same way, then it looks like the series is for Orlando to take.

Out West, the series looks even. At this point it seems to be headed for a game 7. With the teams evenly matched, any unexpected performance could tilt the series towards either team. On the Lakers side, if Andrew Bynum starts to play consistently on defense and on the boards, he could be the difference maker. For the Nuggets, JR Smith or Linas Kleiza or both of them getting hot from the perimeter for an extended period could be the key. In game 3, the Lakers managed to stop Carmelo for the first time this series, while the Nuggets were still unable to stop Kobe. An edge in the head to head matchup of these two could also be the key to the series as it was in this game. I have to say though that I'm hoping for a Nuggets upset, not that I'm a Denver fan, but the Nuggets have played well and deserve to move on, while the Lakers have relied mainly on their talent advantage to get this far. I just don't think they deserve a finals seat, save for Kobe.

2009 Playoffs: Conference Finals

The second round of the NBA playoffs officially concluded today with the expected, albeit delayed, victories of the LA Lakers and the Orlando Magic over the Yao- and T-Mac- less Houston Rockets and the KG-less Boston Celtics. The extended nature of their victories, however, indicated possible weaknesses that could be exploited by their opponents. Already without McGrady the entire playoffs, the Rockets actually played the Lakers evenly (2-2) since they lost Yao after Game 3. The Celtics, on the other hand, managed to match-up Brian Scalabrine with Rashard Lewis and get away with it. They were also able to turn the Glen Davis-Lewis/Turkoglu matchup into an advantage by posting up Big Baby rather than a mismatch with Lewis/Turkoglu using their speed to get easy perimeter shots against Davis.

Looking ahead to the next series, Cleveland looks to have an easy time against the Magic, given Orlando's performance against Boston. Cleveland has a depth of big men in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith, to try and slow down Dwight Howard. Ilgauskas will also force Howard to play some defense as he is a capable low post scorer. In terms of the perimeter game, the Magic have no one to match-up defensively with LeBron James, and will need their team defense to be at its best to be able to control him. Given that they need Lewis and Turkoglu on the floor for offense, Stan Van Gundy may have to play Mickeal Pietrus at the shooting guard spot to defend against James. Courtney Lee, aside from coming off an injury, seems too small to pose a serious challenge to LeBron. Collectively, Cleveland's perimeter players (LeBron, Maurice Williams, Delonte West plus Wally Szcerbiak and Daniel Gibson) should prove superior to Orlando's (Turkoglu, Lewis, Pietrus, Lee, plus Rafer Alston and JJ Reddick). This all adds up for another easy series win, possibly another sweep, for the Cavs.

Out West, the Nuggets should prove to be an interesting match for the Lakers. With the Lakers struggling and playing below par, and the Nuggets seeming to be at their best, the time may be right for the Nuggets to pull off an upset. If the Rockets, with all the injuries, were able to extend LA to seven games, the Nuggets may have enough to win the series. Denver has depth in the post (Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen, plus minutes from Linas Kleiza swinging in from small forward) to neutralize LA's Pau Gasol, an injured Lamar Odom, and an under-performing Andrew Bynum. In Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, they may have the scoring and poise, and in Billups, the championship experience, to offset what Kobe gives the Lakers. In terms of the role players, Denver's perimeter crew of scorers JR Smith and Linas Kleiza, and defensive specialists Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter should prove superior to the Laker bunch of an ageing and struggling Derek Fisher, defensive specialist Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, and youngsters Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown, who could be the wild card for the Lakers. A Lakers team firing on all cylinders would still be the better team, but they may not be up to it. Should they slip up, the Nuggets will be waiting to capitalize.

If things work out as expected, I'm expecting a Cleveland-Denver finals, with LeBron getting a relatively easy ride to his first title. If the Lakers are able to pull things together, however, I think they will make for tougher competition against Cleveland, and may actually be able to deny LeBron.

2009 Playoffs: Surprises

I have to give credit to Boston and Houston for pulling off surprising wins lately. The Celtics managed to win Game 4 on the road, and then came back from a 14 point fourth quarter deficit to pull out a Game 5 win and actually take the lead over the Orlando Magic. This from a team that I have written off as a serious contender due to the absence of Kevin Garnett. And while I still don't see them as a serious title contender (I think the Cavs will easily win the East over either Orlando or Boston), they did exceed my expectations with their recent wins. But I don't see these wins as re-establishing them as contenders with more strength than given credit for. Rather, I see it as exposing the Magic to be a weaker team than their record seems to indicate. Looking at the lineups, I would have expected Orlando to utilize the match-up at power forward (Big Baby Davis for Boston vs either Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis for Orlando) to their advantage - exploit the speed advantage of either Turkoglu or Lewis to get them open shots or easy penetrations against the slow footed Davis. But rather than being able to do that, it has actually been Boston who has taken advantage of the matchups, utilizing Davis' size and strength advantage to get him good shots in the post over his smaller counterparts, including the game winner in Game 4. And while Stan Van Gundy may have enough up his sleeve to pull out wins in Games 6 and 7, I'd have to say the Celtics have overachieved in this year's playoffs given Kevin Garnett's absence. Regardless though, the Cavs may have another sweep to look forward to against whoever faces them in the conference finals.

The other surprise has been Houston's surprising Game 4 win even without Yao Ming. I assumed the Lakers would have easy wins the rest of the series but the Rockets surprised in Game 4. Of course they got blown out in Game 5. But homecourt advantage, which the Rockets had in their miracle of a Game 4, may be enough to pull off a win in Game 6...and as any basketball fan knows, anything can happen in a Game 7.

As for the Mavs, they got away with a Game 4 win to force a Game 5, but that should be it. The Nuggets have just been the better team, even through most of the Game 4 loss, and should bounce back and close this out in Game 5.

2009 Playoffs: Cast Complete

While no series is officially over yet, the way things have gone so far gives a clear indication of who the conference finals cast will be. Out in the West, the recent announcement of Yao Ming's absence for the rest of the playoffs writes off Houston. Granted that the team did start well and the Lakers have not been playing well, they just don't stand a chance without Yao. They may win another game, but this should be over in 5, at most 6, games. In the other Western Conference series, the Nuggets have taken a 3-0 lead over Dallas, so that's also pretty much over with. The Mavs don't have the internal fortitude as a team to be able to come back.

In the East, the Cleveland-Atlanta series was over the moment the Hawks made it to the second round. They never stood a chance, and injuries to three starters (Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams) made the task even more impossible. The Hawks should consider it a successful series if they are able to win one game. In the other Eastern series, Boston-Orlando, the Magic should be able to close out the Celtics. While Eddie House has been big off the bench with 31 and 15 points the last two games, he also cannot sustain that on consistent basis. And the way the Celtics are playing, they need big games from one of the subs every night in order to win over Orlando. The Magic on the other hand, have Courtney Lee back, bolstering their perimeter defense. They should be able to close out the Celtics in 5 or 6 games.

For the conference finals, the Cavs should have a clear path to the finals. Orlando just doesn't have the perimeter defenders to stop LeBron. While Dwight Howard can challenge him at the rim, he will be unchallenged in the perimeter. The Cavs meanwhile have the big bodies to throw at Howard. While none of them can stop Howard one-on-one, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use against him (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace). In the West, the Lakers are favored but the Nuggets could surprise. They have the talent and the depth to compete. If the Lakers struggle in any aspect, the Nuggets could sneak by.

2009 Playoffs: Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have taken a 2-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the playoffs. While Chauncey Billups (12.0 ppg, 7.0 apg, 3.0 spg, 3.0 topg) has outplayed Jason Kidd (9.5 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.0 spg, 5.0 topg) in the series so far, the difference hasn't been decisive. In fact, Billups performance is down from his spectacular first round performance against New Orleans (22.6 ppg, 7.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 topg).

Through the first two games, the difference maker for the Nuggets has been Brazilian center Nene, who has averaged 24.5 ppg throughout the first two games, significantly up from his first round average of 9.0 ppg. Aside from the acquisition of Billups (and perhaps the addition by subtraction of Allen Iverson), the emergence of Nene as an inside force is one of the key factors that led to the Nuggets winning the division and finishing second in the Western Conference. After overcoming testicular cancer in 2007-08 (16 games played, 5.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg), he came back to have his most productive season establishing career highs in points per game (14.6), rebounds per game (7.8), blocks per game (1.3) and field goal percentage (.604; 2nd in the NBA). His emergence gave Denver a dependable low post scorer, which was well complemented by Denver's defensive minded bigs Kenyon Martin and ex-druggie Birdman Chris Andersen. Offensively, his low post offense also complemented the perimeter games of Chauncey Billups and JR Smith, and the slashing game of Carmelo Anthony. The continued productivity of Nene and the other Nuggets big men (Martin: 10.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 1.5 spg in 31.4 mpg; Andersen: 8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg in 23.7 mpg) will be key in determining how far the Nuggets go in the playoffs. Assuming they make it to the conference finals, they will have to contend with Houston's Yao Ming or the Lakers' frontline of 7-0 Andrew Bynum, 7-0 Pao Gasol, and 6-10 Lamar Odom. So far they have proven up to it, specially Nene in the past two games.

2009 Playoffs: Second Round Outlook

The second round of the NBA playoffs starts tomorrow with the second seeded Denver Nuggets taking on sixth seed Dallas. The first round will also officially end tomorrow, with the last pending series coming to a do-or-die ending in the Atlanta-Miami game 7 showdown. This is how I see the second round turning out.

EAST: (1) Cleveland vs (5) Miami
The first part of my projection is that the Heat win game 7 vs the Hawks in Atlanta. That said, I don't think it will really matter who wins the first round series. The winner will end up being beaten by Cleveland in 4 or 5 games. The key to the series will be defending the superstars. I see Miami beating Atlanta because they have no one to guard Dwyane Wade, while none of their stars (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith) has shown up dominant for Atlanta. Miami could surprise if Cleveland can't defend Wade, but the Hawks should be easy pickings should they surprise me and win game 7 vs Miami.

EAST: (2) Boston vs (3) Orlando
Without Kevin Garnett, and even with the benefit of favorable officiating and front office decision making, the Celtics should fall to the Magic in 6. Boston will have to exploit the short handed 2-spot for the Magic, and try to maximize Ray Allen's offense against JJ Redick. If Allen gets going, Orlando may have to turn to using Mickeal Pietrus at the shooting guard spot to defend him, at least until Courtney Lee comes back. Boston may win some games with outstanding shooting, but I don't see them shooting well every game of the series. Conversely, without KG, they don't have anyone who can match up with Howard inside, and if the Magic shooters get going, Dwight should dominate. Hopefully he learned from the Dalembert incident and doesn't end up getting suspended again.

WEST: (1) LA Lakers vs (5) Houston
While the Lakers have struggled, they should still have enough to beat the Rockets in 6 or 7 games. There are a number of intersting match-ups, with the Lakers having the frontcourt depth in Andrew Bynum, Pao Gasol, and Lamar Odom to match defend against Yao Ming, while Houston has two of the best perimeter defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier to try and control Kobe Bryant. The Lakers though have more proven weapons than the Rockets and that should be the edge. Surprise element for Houston would be in case Aaron Brooks and Von Wafer bust out scoring wise.

WEST: (2) Denver vs (6) Dallas
This is a matchup between two offense oriented teams. I'll go with Denver winning this in 5 or 6 games, with the key matchup being at point guard. Both teams seem to match-up well against each other: Dirk Nowitzki and Carmelo Anthony as the primary scorers, Jason Terry and Josh Howard for Dallas and JR Smith, Nene, and Kenyon Martin for Denver as the secondary scorers. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass provide Dallas' inside muscle, which would be offset by Chris Andersen plus Nene and K-Mart. While Jason Kidd can still run a high octane offense, the challenge will be whether he can stop Chauncey Billups. Billups should prove superior to the Kidd-Jose Barea tandem, and that should be enough to swing the series to Denver.

LONGSHOT PREDICTIONS: Cleveland beats Orlando in five games in the East, Lakers beat Denver in six games in the West. Lakers get things together and beat the Cavs in the finals.

2009 Playoffs: Closing Out Round 1

Seven teams have moved forward in the first round of the NBA playoffs, with the sole remaining undecided series being between Miami and Atlanta, with Game 7 coming up. As expected, Houston closed out Portland in Game 6. Orlando surprisingly eliminated the Sixers easily in Game 6 without Dwight Howard, having performed better as a team without him than they did with him. It was a surprisingly easy Game 6 win for the Magic.

In the only other series to reach Game 7 aside from the Miami-Atlanta series, the Celtics managed to "survive" the Bulls. I recall all the talk about the leprechaun in the old Boston Garden, and it seems that this character has now moved into the NBA front office, particularly for this series. My apologies to Celtics fans, but I don't think they deserved to win this series. First of all, the referees choked on their whistles failing to call a flagrant foul on Rondo after his headshot against Brad Miller at the end of Game 5. Rondo got away with whacking Miller on the head, and after watching Miller shoot free throws the rest of the series, I'd have to say that the hit also affected Miller's shooting. Going to the statistics, Miller hit 19 of 24 free throw attempts in the series for 79%. If you take out the two missed shots at the end of Game 5, he connected on 19 of 22 attempts of 86% of his free throws. This is consistent with his regular season accuracy of 82%. For those who will cite pressure, Miller's end game free throw shooting in Game 6 would belie that he was highly susceptible to missing shots at end game. In addition to the Game 5 incident, Rondo yet again got away with a lighter penalty after he swung an elbow at Kirk Hinrich in Game 6. While he was called for a flagrant, he was conveniently not suspended for Game 7. Without these two advantageous calls, the Celtics may have lost Game 5 (admittedly they still could have won it in overtime even if the call was a flagrant foul) or Game 7 (if Rondo was suspended). Regardless, though, the winner of this series will not be material in the playoffs unless Garnett comes back. There isn't much of a chance that the eventual champion would have emerged from this pair.

2009 Playoffs: Musings

The 2009 NBA Playoffs have started, and for some teams such as the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets, it has actually ended. Am capturing some assorted and unassociated thoughts I have on the playoffs to up to this point.

1. Celtics survive Bulls, rather than beat them
I found this thought very much appropriate assuming the Celtics make it out of the first round. Aside from not being much of a contender without KG, the Celtics have pretty much been played even by the Bulls. Throw in the uncalled flagrant foul on Brad Miller that could have given the Bulls Game 5, and the Celtics are actually lucky to even be ahead 3-2. And even then, we still can't say at this point that the Celtics will survive the Bulls.

2. Little guys get away with flagrant fouls on big guys
This was a topic of discussion after Rondo's clothesline of Brad Miller at the end of Game 5. In fairness to the Celtics point guard, this was not an isolated incident, rather was more reflective of how calls generally are made. As the Sporting News' Sean Deveney pointed out, a mid-air loss of balance that usually happens when a smaller guy falls does a lot to help get the flagrant call. The same foul, without the drama of a spectacular fall, just does not get the call. And given the laws of physics, big, heavy, unathletic guys like Brad Miller just don't fall as easily and dramatically as small guys like Rondo.

3. Biggest in-season acquisition: Chauncey Billups
The Denver Nuggets seemed to have an easy time eliminating Chris Paul and the New Orleands Hornets. Tyson Chandler's injury aside, this was pretty much the same Hornets team that was a win away from the Western Conference Finals last year. And except for the Billups for Iverson swap, also the same Nuggets as last year's first round patsy. Conversely, Detroit, last year's Eastern Conference Finalist with Billups, finished the regular season below .500 and were easily swept in the first round by the Cavs.

4. Moving Forward
With the Lakers, Nuggets, Mavs, and Cavs in the second round, that leaves four series still in the balance.
Portland-Houston: I would expect the Rockets to close out the Blazers in Game 6. A Blazers sweep of the last 2 games would be too much of a curse on the Rockets given their recent history and I feel is improbable at this point.
Boston-Chicago: I think the leprechaun has worked his magic this round. The Bulls had their chance to win the series in Game 5, but given Rondo's non flagrant foul, I think the Celtics have enough to pull out a Game 7 win.
Orlando-Philadelphia: Magic in Game 7. It could have been Magic in Game 6, but Howard's suspension torpedoed that. I see the Sixers winning Game 6, but the Magic pull out a Game 7.
Atlanta-Miami: Miami sweeps Games 6 and 7. Wade has not played well the past 2 games and is due to break out. Joe Johnson was due for a breakout game and did so in Game 5. Now it's Wade's turn. The loss of Horford and Marvin Williams will be too much for Atlanta to handle.

2009 Playoffs: Celtics-Bulls

It's probably best that I kick off this blog with this topic, since it was a discussion about Game 2 yesterday that gave me the idea of noting my thoughts in a blog.

Having stolen Game 1 in Boston, and losing Game 2 on a last second shot, Chicago seems to be poised to upset the defending champs in the first round. The main reason for their vulnerability is the absence of Kevin Garnett, who may miss the entire playoffs...which for the Celtics may not extend beyond the first round. My thoughts on the series:

> The Celtics have proven susceptible to an athletic backcourt. The Bulls have exposed the Celtic guards with Derrick Rose's 36 point game 1, and Ben Gordon's 42 point game 2. While Rondo can keep pace with one, that leaves Allen, who in his advanced age is no longer the athlete he was in his prime, struggling to defend the other Chicago guard. Tony Allen would have been a big help here with his athleticism but gives up a lot in terms of basketball smarts.
> Boston's big men are perhaps the least athletic as a group without KG - Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby Davis, and Leon Powe are not big time athletes and cannot cover up for the deficiencies of the backcourt.
> KG is the key to the Boston defense. He is their defensive captain. Aside from providing the athleticism up front that allows them to compensate for the backcourt, he also provides on-court direction on how they adjust to the offensive play.

Without KG coming back, and ideally at full strength, the Celtics repeat bid is very much in jeopardy. Unlike the Celtics of the 80s, where the bench players were capable of being starters on other teams, there is just no one left to pick up the slack in his absence.

And even if KG is able to come back, both he and Allen have shown a significant drop off in ability vs previous years and may not be able to carry the team through. Best case scenario for them would be reaching the conference finals. Let's see how it pans out.